Results: UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Elevation: 777.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
60.0% 57.14% 58.33%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
60.0% 57.14% 58.33%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
80.0% 71.43% 75.0%
Selected Bets for Event:
ROI: -8.40%
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Aljamain Sterling, Justin Gaethje
  • Odds: 142
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Bo Nickal, Deiveson Figueiredo, Zhang Weili
  • Odds: -149
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Bo Nickal, Arman Tsarukyan, Jalin Turner
  • Odds: 101
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Deiveson Figueiredo, Sodiq Yusuff
  • Odds: 184
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Jessica Andrade, Bobby Green
  • Odds: 191

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis
SHAP Chart

Analysis: Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jamahal Hill to Win

Score: 4 Odds: Alex Pereira: -150 Jamahal Hill: 118

Alex Pereira's Breakdown

Alex Pereira's striking pedigree shines in the Octagon, adapting his kickboxing skills masterfully into his MMA career. His powerful left hook, honed in the ring, serves as a potent weapon that he integrates seamlessly. Pereira's high-intensity starts often overwhelm opponents early, although he has shown past issues maintaining this pace in later rounds—a pattern that has notably improved lately.

Against Jan Blachowicz, Pereira's stand-up game was on full display. Leveraging techniques like low kicks to disrupt balance and high kicks capitalizing on reactions, coupled with his famed left hook, Pereira dictated the pace and range. Despite Blachowicz's wrestling attempts to counter the striking threat, Pereira's accuracy, power, and variety secured his performance advantage.

Jamahal Hill's Breakdown

Jamahal Hill is a versatile striker in the light heavyweight division. His strengths lie in his technical striking, particularly his straight punches and uppercuts. Hill has shown notable evolution, transitioning between southpaw and orthodox stances strategically, as demonstrated against Glover Teixeira.

In that fight, Hill utilized right uppercuts from orthodox to capitalize on Teixeira's lunging tendencies. His stance switches added left high kicks to his arsenal. While Teixeira had moments of success with his grappling, Hill's takedown defense and ability to escape disadvantageous positions were impressive. Hill's speed and precision striking, coupled with his adaptability, were crucial in securing his victory and the light heavyweight championship.

Analysis and Key Points

  • This match pits Pereira's kickboxing-influenced striking against Hill's versatile and technical boxing.
  • Both fighters have shown the ability to adapt their striking strategies mid-fight to capitalize on opponents' tendencies.
  • Pereira's powerful hooks and kicks could pose a significant threat if he can control the range and pace.
  • Hill's speed, precision, and ability to switch stances may help him navigate Pereira's striking arsenal.
  • Grappling could be a factor if either fighter decides to shift the dynamic, testing the other's takedown defense.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The betting odds significantly favor Hill, increasing the model's score by 5.0, suggesting strong market confidence in his victory.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Pereira's higher differential decreased the score by 2.0, indicating his striking impact could threaten Hill if not managed.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Hill's recent differential boosted the score by 1.0, suggesting his current form might mitigate Pereira's impact.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Hill's higher percentage increased the score by 1.0, potentially helping him weather Pereira's offense.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Hill attempting more takedowns recently increased the score by 1.0, possibly providing a path to victory if striking stalls.

Past Model Performance

For Alex Pereira, WolfTickets has had mixed results. It correctly predicted his wins over Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz but incorrectly favored him over Israel Adesanya twice. The model also incorrectly picked his opponents to win against Sean Strickland and Bruno Silva.

In Jamahal Hill's recent fights, WolfTickets has been accurate, correctly predicting his victories over Glover Teixeira, Thiago Santos, and Johnny Walker.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Jamahal Hill to defeat Alex Pereira, primarily based on the betting odds and Hill's recent performances. While Pereira's striking impact could be a threat, Hill's own striking skills, adaptability, and potential grappling avenue suggest paths to victory. However, Pereira's kickboxing pedigree and power cannot be discounted. Hill's speed, precision, and ability to strategically switch stances may be key in navigating Pereira's arsenal. Ultimately, this fight pits two skilled and dangerous strikers against each other, promising an exciting light heavyweight showdown.

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Analysis: Zhang Weili vs Yan Xiaonan

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Zhang Weili to Win

Score: 23 Odds: Zhang Weili: -430 Yan Xiaonan: 300

Zhang Weili's Breakdown

Zhang Weili's fighting style seamlessly blends her Sanda striking background with an evolving grappling skill set. Her fluid stance switching creates openings for powerful techniques like sidekicks, spinning back fists, and crushing inside low kicks. Zhang's physical strength and relentless pace overwhelm opponents.

Most impressive has been the technical refinement in her wrestling and ground game. Against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, she utilized body lock trips to achieve dominant positions, then applied suffocating pressure with the Dagestani handcuff to deliver punishing ground-and-pound en route to victory. This multi-faceted attack makes Zhang a formidable challenge for any opponent.

Yan Xiaonan's Breakdown

Yan Xiaonan's MMA approach centers around high-volume striking and constant forward pressure. Her crisp boxing combinations are accentuated by quick footwork and impressive endurance. Xiaonan effectively utilizes her jab to manage distance and set up precise strikes.

However, recent fights have exposed potential weaknesses in her ground game and takedown defense when facing high-level grapplers. To her credit, Xiaonan has shown adaptability, working diligently to improve her grappling and ability to get back to her preferred striking range. Her toughness and well-rounded development make her a tough out for anyone in the division.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Zhang's explosive power and technicality both on the feet and the ground pose a serious threat
  • Xiaonan's volume striking approach could be smothered by Zhang's forward pressure and clinch work
  • Zhang's impressive strength and physicality give her crucial advantages in grappling exchanges
  • Xiaonan will need to maintain distance with footwork and outpace Zhang's output to have success

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: Zhang's status as a significant betting favorite moved the score strongly in her direction
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Zhang's increased takedown attempts boost the prediction in her favor
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Zhang's higher differential in landing powerful strikes sways the prediction
  • Striking Impact Differential: Zhang's overall edge in damaging strikes landed impacts the score
  • Recent Win Percentage: Zhang's perfect recent winning percentage positively affects her predicted chance of victory

Past Model Performance

WolfTickets has an impressive track record predicting Zhang Weili's fights, correctly calling her last two wins. However, the model did incorrectly pick Joanna Jedrzejczyk in their 2022 rematch.

For Yan Xiaonan, WolfTickets has been less reliable, incorrectly predicting her loss to Jessica Andrade in May 2023 with a high degree of confidence. It did accurately forecast her majority decision win over Mackenzie Dern in 2022 though.

Conclusion

Zhang Weili's complete skill set, overwhelming physicality, and improving tactical prowess make her a deserving favorite over Yan Xiaonan. While Xiaonan's striking volume and toughness could provide some bright spots, Zhang's ability to dictate where the fight takes place with her wrestling is likely to be the difference-maker.

Considering the styles and recent performances, WolfTicketsAI's pick of Zhang Weili by a score of 23 appears wholly justified. Betters should have confidence in the pick, but given the model's inconsistency predicting Yan Xiaonan's fights, some caution is warranted.

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Analysis: Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Justin Gaethje to Win

Score: 10 Odds: Justin Gaethje: -220 Max Holloway: 168

Justin Gaethje's Breakdown

Justin Gaethje's aggressive fighting style, marked by powerful striking and a propensity for leg kicks, has been a hallmark of his UFC career. His recent fights showcase an evolution in his approach, incorporating more strategic elements to complement his raw power.

Against Dustin Poirier, Gaethje effectively utilized outside low kicks, adapting from a previous encounter where inside low kicks proved less effective. This adjustment significantly impacted Poirier's movement and ability to counter. Gaethje also incorporated head kicks, an unexpected addition to his arsenal, creating a new threat for Poirier to navigate.

Gaethje's improved head movement and defensive responsibility, balanced with his signature forward pressure, present a more versatile fighter. His ability to neutralize Poirier's jab through hand fighting opened up additional offensive opportunities.

In his fight with Rafael Fiziev, Gaethje displayed tailored counters to Fiziev's kicks, such as stepping in with a left hook and pivoting off-line. His use of lateral movement and level changes to set up strikes further exhibited his strategic growth.

Max Holloway's Breakdown

Max Holloway, renowned for his elite striking, volume, and pace, has consistently demonstrated his skills against top featherweight contenders.

Against Chan Sung Jung, Holloway employed intelligent feints, a crisp jab, and targeted body shots to create openings for his combinations. His pressure fighting style, combined with a diverse striking arsenal, allowed him to overwhelm Jung and secure a victory.

Holloway's volume striking approach was also evident in his fight against Calvin Kattar, where he set a UFC record for significant strikes landed. His ability to maintain a high pace while avoiding significant damage is a testament to his conditioning and defensive skills.

However, Holloway's willingness to engage in striking exchanges and absorb damage could be seen as a potential vulnerability. This was evident in his losses to Alexander Volkanovski, where Volkanovski's more varied attack and grappling threats proved effective.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Gaethje's evolution: Gaethje's recent performances showcase a more strategic approach, incorporating techniques like outside low kicks, head kicks, and improved defensive movement to complement his powerful striking.
  • Holloway's volume striking: Holloway's high-volume striking, diverse combinations, and relentless pace have been instrumental in his success, allowing him to overwhelm opponents.
  • Potential vulnerabilities: Gaethje's aggressive style can leave him open to counters, while Holloway's willingness to trade strikes may expose him to damage against heavy hitters.
  • Adaptability: Both fighters have shown the ability to adapt their game plans based on their opponents, with Gaethje utilizing specific counters and Holloway employing feints and level changes.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds significantly favor Gaethje (-220), suggesting a strong likelihood of his victory according to betting markets.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Holloway has a higher Significant Striking Impact Differential (38.4643) compared to Gaethje (-1.5000), indicating Holloway's strikes have had a greater impact in his fights. However, this feature decreased the model's score, favoring Gaethje.
  • TrueSkill: Gaethje's TrueSkill rating (37.62008236607758) is lower than Holloway's (40.574710675513664), suggesting Holloway may have faced tougher competition. Nonetheless, this feature increased the model's score in favor of Gaethje.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Holloway's Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (41.7817) is considerably higher than Gaethje's (-3.0100), but this feature decreased the model's score, favoring Gaethje.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Both fighters have a Recent Win Percentage of 0.67, indicating similar recent success. This feature slightly increased the model's score for Gaethje.

Past Model Performance

In Gaethje's recent fights, the model predicted his opponents (Poirier and Fiziev) to win, but Gaethje emerged victorious in both instances. The model correctly predicted Oliveira's win over Gaethje.

For Holloway, the model accurately predicted his win against Jung and loss to Volkanovski, but incorrectly predicted a win for Allen against Holloway.

The model's mixed performance in predicting these fighters' recent outcomes suggests some uncertainty in its predictions.

Conclusion

While Max Holloway's striking prowess and high-volume approach have been a defining factor in his success, Justin Gaethje's power, improved strategy, and the model's prediction suggest he may have the upper hand in this matchup. Gaethje's ability to adapt his techniques and implement a more defensive mindset could prove crucial against Holloway's relentless pace.

However, Holloway's superior Significant Striking Impact Differential and TrueSkill rating indicate he is a formidable opponent. The model's past performance also introduces some uncertainty in the prediction.

Ultimately, this fight promises to be a thrilling encounter between two of the most skilled and entertaining strikers in the UFC. While Gaethje is favored, Holloway's ability to rise to the occasion and implement his game plan cannot be discounted. As with any high-level MMA bout, the outcome may hinge on split-second decisions, adaptability, and the ability to capitalize on opportunities as they arise.

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Analysis: Charles Oliveira vs Arman Tsarukyan

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Arman Tsarukyan to Win

Score: 20 Odds: Charles Oliveira: 176 Arman Tsarukyan: -230

Charles Oliveira's Breakdown

Charles Oliveira is a seasoned veteran in the UFC, known for his high-paced, pressuring fighting style. He has an impressive record of 34 wins, 9 losses, and 1 no contest. Oliveira's strengths lie in both his striking power and his ground game, particularly from his back using closed guard to create scrambles and submission opportunities. He's been recognized for his body work and has evolved to incorporate strong punching mechanics.

However, in his recent loss against Islam Makhachev, Oliveira deviated from his usual style, fixating on head strikes instead of mixing in body shots. While he showcased great grappling skills and had a threatening guard, he ultimately faced an opponent with superior wrestling and control. Oliveira's tendency to head-hunt and lack of body attacks could lead him to tire out less effectively in future fights.

Despite the loss to Makhachev, Oliveira's BJJ brilliance and ability to create submission threats from his back remain formidable weapons in his arsenal. His transitions between striking and grappling are smooth, and his overall fight strategy makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the lightweight division.

Arman Tsarukyan's Breakdown

Arman Tsarukyan is a rising star in the UFC's lightweight division, known for his dynamic and versatile skill set in both striking and grappling. With a strong Sambo background, Tsarukyan effectively incorporates takedowns, control, and submission attempts into his fighting style.

Tsarukyan has shown significant growth and adaptability in his UFC tenure. He has improved his striking abilities, setting up takedowns with punches and kicks, and demonstrating the ability to control opponents on the ground and go for finishes. His cardio and pace management are also notable strengths.

In his recent win over Beneil Dariush, Tsarukyan utilized a blend of orthodox striking, clever footwork to control the engagement range, and an improvisational clinch game to surprise his opponent. His use of the overhand right to close distance, followed by a clinch to set up knees, was a standout technique that led to a fight-finishing sequence.

Tsarukyan's ability to employ Sambo wrestling effectively in the octagon, combined with his growing striking skill set, positions him well for ascending the lightweight rankings. His performance against Dariush showcased his strength in neutralizing opponents' striking, using controlled aggression and grappling transitions to dictate the fight's pace and location.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Oliveira's BJJ brilliance vs Tsarukyan's Sambo wrestling: This matchup presents a classic grappler vs grappler scenario, with Oliveira's BJJ skills pitted against Tsarukyan's Sambo background. The outcome may depend on who can dictate the grappling exchanges and maintain control on the ground.

  • Striking evolution: Both fighters have shown improvements in their striking games. Oliveira has incorporated strong punching mechanics, while Tsarukyan has used his strikes to set up takedowns effectively. The fighter who can mix their striking and grappling more seamlessly may gain an advantage.

  • Adaptability and fight IQ: Tsarukyan has demonstrated a keen ability to make mid-fight adjustments and exploit his opponents' weaknesses. Oliveira will need to be prepared for Tsarukyan's tactical adaptations and have a plan to counter them.

  • Cardio and pace: Both fighters are known for their high-paced styles and good cardio. However, Oliveira's tendency to head-hunt in his last fight could lead to faster fatigue if he employs a similar approach against Tsarukyan.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: This feature decreased the prediction score by 2.0, suggesting that Oliveira's significant striking has been more impactful compared to Tsarukyan's. Oliveira's significant striking differential is 2.3438, while Tsarukyan's is 24.0000.

  • Recent Win Percentage: This feature decreased the prediction score by 2.0, implying that Oliveira's recent win percentage of 67% is lower than Tsarukyan's recent win percentage of 100%.

  • Reach: This feature increased the prediction score by 1.0. Oliveira's reach of 74 inches is slightly longer than Tsarukyan's 72 inches, potentially giving him an advantage in striking exchanges.

  • Recent Average Striking Output Differential: This feature increased the prediction score by 1.0, suggesting that Tsarukyan has had a higher striking output compared to his opponents in his recent fights. Tsarukyan's recent average striking output differential is 74.1543, while Oliveira's is 3.0146.

Past Model Performance

The model has had mixed results in predicting the outcomes of Oliveira's fights. In his last three fights, the model correctly predicted Oliveira's wins against Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier but incorrectly predicted his loss to Islam Makhachev.

On the other hand, the model has been accurate in predicting Tsarukyan's fights. In his last five fights, the model correctly predicted Tsarukyan's wins against Beneil Dariush, Joaquim Silva, Damir Ismagulov, and Joel Alvarez. The only incorrect prediction was Tsarukyan's loss to Mateusz Gamrot.

The model's past performance suggests a higher confidence in predicting Tsarukyan's fights compared to Oliveira's. However, it's important to note that each fight is unique, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Conclusion

The matchup between Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan promises to be an exciting clash of styles between two skilled grapplers with evolving striking games. While Oliveira's BJJ prowess and submission threats from the guard are formidable, Tsarukyan's Sambo wrestling, adaptability, and recent performances suggest he may have the edge in this fight.

The model's prediction of Tsarukyan winning with a score of 20 is supported by his recent win streak, striking output, and the model's historical accuracy in predicting his fights. However, Oliveira's experience, reach advantage, and significant striking impact differential cannot be overlooked.

Ultimately, the fighter who can implement their game plan more effectively, make strategic adjustments, and maintain a high pace throughout the fight will likely emerge victorious in this compelling matchup.

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Analysis: Bo Nickal vs Cody Brundage

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Bo Nickal to Win

Score: 30 Odds: Bo Nickal: -2500 Cody Brundage: 1100

Bo Nickal's Breakdown

Bo Nickal is a rising star in the UFC with an undefeated record of 5-0. His background as a three-time NCAA Division I national champion in wrestling has been a major factor in his success inside the Octagon. Nickal's grappling prowess was on full display in his fight against Jamie Pickett, where he secured a victory via an arm-triangle choke.

While Nickal's submission skills are impressive, the length of time it took him to finish the choke suggests there may be room for improvement in his technique. Against tougher opponents who can better defend submissions, Nickal will need to combine his grappling with effective ground-and-pound to secure finishes.

Cody Brundage's Breakdown

Cody Brundage is a seasoned veteran with a record of 10-5 in the UFC. He is known for his well-rounded skill set and ability to adapt his game plan based on his opponent. In his most recent fight against Zach Reese, Brundage showcased his grappling ability by controlling the fight on the ground.

However, Brundage has also shown vulnerabilities in his past fights. He has been caught in compromising positions while attempting submissions, leading to losses. Additionally, his striking defense and ability to avoid getting hit have been areas of concern.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Wrestling vs Striking: This fight is a classic matchup between a high-level wrestler in Bo Nickal and a well-rounded fighter in Cody Brundage. Nickal will likely look to take the fight to the ground, while Brundage will aim to keep the fight standing and utilize his striking.

  • Submission Threats: Both fighters have shown the ability to finish fights via submission. Nickal secured an arm-triangle choke victory in his last fight, while Brundage has multiple submission wins on his record. The grappling exchanges in this fight will be crucial.

  • Experience Difference: Cody Brundage has significantly more UFC experience than Bo Nickal, with 15 fights compared to Nickal's 5. This could play a factor if the fight goes into the later rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds heavily favor Bo Nickal at -2500, indicating that he is a significant favorite in this matchup.

  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Bo Nickal has a much higher rate of takedowns attempted per fight compared to Cody Brundage. This aligns with Nickal's wrestling-heavy approach and could be a key factor in the fight.

  • Striking Defense Percentage: Nickal also holds the advantage in striking defense percentage. If Brundage is unable to effectively land strikes, it will be difficult for him to keep the fight standing and outpoint Nickal.

Past Model Performance

The model has only one previous prediction for Cody Brundage, which it got correct when predicting him to lose to Sedriques Dumas. There are no past predictions for Bo Nickal.

With limited data on both fighters, it's difficult to assess the model's historical performance in their matchups. The lack of prior predictions for Nickal in particular adds some uncertainty to the current pick.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Bo Nickal to win this fight with a confidence score of 30. Nickal's elite wrestling background and grappling ability give him a clear path to victory by taking Cody Brundage down and controlling the fight on the mat.

While Brundage is the more experienced fighter and has a well-rounded skill set, his vulnerabilities on the ground and in defending submissions are concerning in this matchup. Unless Brundage can keep the fight standing and outpoint Nickal for the duration, the odds and analysis clearly favor the rising prospect Bo Nickal to get his hand raised.

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Analysis: Jiri Prochazka vs Aleksandar Rakic

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Aleksandar Rakic to Win

Score: 2.0 Odds: Jiri Prochazka: -104 Aleksandar Rakic: -120

Jiri Prochazka's Breakdown

Jiri Prochazka is an aggressive striker with a knack for finishing fights. His unique blend of dynamic striking and resilience was on full display in his title fight against Glover Teixeira. Prochazka utilized upward strikes like jabs, uppercuts, and knees to thwart Teixeira's takedown attempts and maintain control on the feet. This strategic application of strikes to exploit his opponent's movements is a key aspect of Prochazka's game.

However, Prochazka's aggressive style can also be a liability, as it leaves him open to counters. This was evident in his loss to Alex Pereira, where he was knocked out in the second round. Prochazka's ability to adapt and survive on the ground against a grappler like Teixeira shows his improved defensive grappling, but his tendency for wild exchanges remains a potential weakness.

Aleksandar Rakic's Breakdown

Aleksandar Rakic is a technical striker with a well-rounded skill set. His powerful kicks and effective use of his height and reach make him a formidable opponent on the feet. Rakic's calculated approach was evident in his fight against Jan Blachowicz, where he utilized calf kicks to compromise Blachowicz's mobility.

However, Rakic's cautious style and failure to capitalize on his opponent's patterns cost him in that fight. After absorbing leg kicks, Rakic injured his knee while retreating, leading to a TKO loss. This highlights a potential area for improvement in Rakic's game - being more proactive and leading the dance.

Previous Fight Breakdown

Prochazka and Rakic have not fought before.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striking Battle: This fight will likely be a striking battle between two technical and powerful strikers. Prochazka's aggressive style will clash with Rakic's more calculated approach.
  • Grappling: While both fighters are primarily strikers, Prochazka has shown improved grappling in his recent fights. Rakic's grappling is less tested at the elite level.
  • Injury Concerns: Rakic is coming off a knee injury in his last fight, which could potentially impact his performance.
  • Adaptability: Prochazka has shown the ability to adapt and overcome adversity in fights, while Rakic has been criticized for being too cautious at times.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds slightly favor Rakic (-120) over Prochazka (-104), which aligns with the model's prediction.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Rakic's lower recent win percentage of 67% compared to Prochazka's 67% increased the model's score in favor of Rakic.
  • Significant Striking: Prochazka's higher recent and overall significant striking impact differential decreased the model's score in his favor.

Past Model Performance

The model has a mixed track record with these fighters:

  • The model correctly predicted Prochazka's loss to Pereira but incorrectly predicted his win over Teixeira.
  • The model incorrectly predicted Rakic to beat Blachowicz.

Given the limited data and mixed results, there is some uncertainty around this prediction.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts a close fight between two elite light heavyweight strikers, with Aleksandar Rakic slightly favored to win. The model's prediction is based on the odds, recent win percentage, and striking metrics.

However, there are several factors that add uncertainty to this prediction. Rakic's injury, Prochazka's adaptability, and the model's mixed track record with these fighters all suggest that this fight could go either way.

Ultimately, this promises to be a high-level striking battle between two of the best in the division. While Rakic may have a slight edge on paper, Prochazka's aggressive style and finishing instinct make him a live underdog. Regardless of the outcome, fans can expect an exciting fight between two elite competitors.

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Analysis: Calvin Kattar vs Aljamain Sterling

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Aljamain Sterling to Win

Score: 8 Odds: Calvin Kattar: 118 Aljamain Sterling: -150

Calvin Kattar's Breakdown

Calvin Kattar is a well-rounded fighter known for his crisp boxing and diverse striking arsenal. His high fight IQ allows him to adapt mid-fight and effectively pressure opponents. Kattar's primary strength lies in his striking, particularly his ability to land significant elbow strikes in close quarters.

However, Kattar has shown durability concerns, especially following his loss to Max Holloway where he absorbed a historic number of strikes. His recent KO/TKO loss to Arnold Allen in October 2022 further emphasizes this potential vulnerability.

On a positive note, Kattar has demonstrated improvements in his approach, such as mixing in takedowns to break up striking exchanges and control the fight's tempo, as seen in his bout against Giga Chikadze. This strategic evolution adds a multi-dimensional aspect to his game beyond just relying on boxing.

Aljamain Sterling's Breakdown

Aljamain Sterling is a dynamic fighter known for his high-level grappling and evolving striking game. His strengths include his wrestling base, proficiency in scrambles, and ability to secure dominant positions like back control. Sterling's adaptability allows him to continuously adjust his strategy mid-fight.

While Sterling's striking defense has been a weakness in the past, he has shown significant improvements in recent performances. However, his stand-up could still be considered a relative weakness when matched against elite strikers in the division.

Sterling's fight against Sean O'Malley highlighted the potential vulnerability in his striking defense, as he was knocked out by O'Malley's precise counter-striking. To mitigate this, Sterling may need to refine his striking defense further and develop tools to deal with skilled counter-strikers.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Clash of Styles: This matchup presents a classic grappler vs striker dynamic. Sterling's grappling prowess will be pitted against Kattar's diverse striking arsenal.
  • Grappling Advantage: Sterling holds a significant advantage in the grappling department. His ability to secure takedowns, control opponents on the ground, and hunt for submissions could be a key factor in this fight.
  • Striking Exchanges: While both fighters have shown improvements in their striking, Kattar likely holds the edge in pure boxing and diverse striking techniques. Sterling will need to be cautious of Kattar's elbow strikes in close quarters.
  • Durability Concerns: Kattar's recent KO/TKO losses raise questions about his durability, especially against a high-output fighter like Sterling who can mix in grappling with striking.
  • Adaptability: Both fighters have shown the ability to adapt their game plans mid-fight. This fight may come down to who can make the necessary adjustments and impose their will more effectively.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: The data shows that Sterling has a significant advantage in this metric, suggesting he lands more impactful strikes compared to Kattar. This could be a key factor in the model's prediction.
  • TrueSkill: Sterling's higher TrueSkill rating indicates that the model considers him to be the more skilled fighter overall, which likely contributed to the prediction in his favor.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Kattar's recent win percentage of 33% is significantly lower than Sterling's 67%, suggesting that Sterling has been more successful in his recent fights, potentially influencing the model's prediction.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Sterling's higher striking defense percentage implies that he is better at avoiding strikes compared to Kattar, which could be an important factor considering Kattar's striking prowess.

Past Model Performance

For Calvin Kattar, the model predictions have been mixed. It incorrectly predicted Kattar to win against Arnold Allen and Giga Chikadze but correctly predicted Josh Emmett to win against Kattar. This suggests that the model's performance on Kattar's fights has been inconsistent.

On the other hand, the model has been more accurate in predicting Aljamain Sterling's fights. It correctly predicted Sterling to win against Henry Cejudo and TJ Dillashaw but incorrectly predicted Sterling to win against Sean O'Malley. The model's recent success in predicting Sterling's fights lends more confidence to its current prediction.

Conclusion

In conclusion, WolfTicketsAI predicts Aljamain Sterling to win against Calvin Kattar with a score of 8. This prediction is based on Sterling's grappling advantage, higher TrueSkill rating, better recent win percentage, and superior striking defense.

However, Kattar's diverse striking arsenal and ability to adapt mid-fight cannot be overlooked. The clash of styles between the grappler and the striker makes this an intriguing matchup.

The model's past performance suggests more confidence in its predictions for Sterling compared to Kattar. Nevertheless, both fighters have shown the ability to make adjustments and impose their game plans, which adds an element of unpredictability to the fight.

Ultimately, this fight may come down to whether Sterling can effectively utilize his grappling to neutralize Kattar's striking or if Kattar can keep the fight standing and outpoint Sterling with his diverse strikes. Regardless of the outcome, fans can expect a high-level showcase of skills from both fighters.

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Analysis: Sodiq Yusuff vs Diego Lopes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Sodiq Yusuff to Win

Score: 10 Odds: Sodiq Yusuff: 115 Diego Lopes: -140

Sodiq Yusuff's Breakdown

Sodiq Yusuff has an impressive 13-3 record, showcasing his well-rounded skillset in the UFC's featherweight division. In his most recent fight against Don Shainis, Yusuff secured a submission victory, displaying his grappling prowess. Prior to that, he earned a unanimous decision win over Alex Caceres, utilizing his striking and footwork to outmaneuver his opponent.

Yusuff's striking is crisp and technical, landing an average of 5.45 significant strikes per minute. He effectively mixes up his strikes, targeting the head, body, and legs of his opponents. His striking defense is also solid, with a 55.63% significant strike defense percentage.

While Yusuff's takedown accuracy is relatively low at 22.22%, he has shown improvements in his grappling game, as evidenced by his submission win over Shainis. His takedown defense stands at a respectable 81.82%, allowing him to keep the fight standing and utilize his striking prowess.

Diego Lopes's Breakdown

Diego Lopes enters this fight with an impressive 23-6 record, riding a two-fight winning streak in the UFC. In his most recent outing, Lopes scored a first-round KO/TKO victory over Pat Sabatini, showcasing his finishing ability. Prior to that, he submitted Gavin Tucker in the first round, highlighting his dangerous submission game.

Lopes is a submission specialist, averaging an astounding 5.79 submissions per fight. He is constantly hunting for submissions, making him a threat on the ground. His striking, while not as refined as Yusuff's, is still effective, landing 2.76 significant strikes per minute with a 54.95% accuracy.

However, Lopes' striking defense is a concern, with a low 35.37% significant strike defense percentage. He absorbs 4.36 head strikes per minute, which could be problematic against a precise striker like Yusuff. Additionally, Lopes has yet to secure a takedown in the UFC, which may limit his ability to implement his grappling game.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striking Advantage: Sodiq Yusuff holds the edge in striking, with a higher significant striking output and a better striking defense compared to Diego Lopes.
  • Submission Threat: Diego Lopes is a dangerous submission artist, averaging 5.79 submissions per fight. Yusuff will need to be cautious on the ground and avoid getting caught in a submission.
  • Grappling Question Mark: While Lopes is a skilled grappler, he has yet to secure a takedown in the UFC. This could limit his ability to implement his strongest weapon against Yusuff.
  • Recent Performances: Both fighters are coming off impressive wins, with Yusuff securing a submission victory and Lopes scoring a first-round KO/TKO.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Yusuff has a significantly higher significant striking impact differential (14.38) compared to Lopes (-15.00), which greatly favors Yusuff and increases the model's prediction score by 6.0.
  • Striking Impact Differential: Yusuff's striking impact differential (25.88) is substantially higher than Lopes' (-44.00), further favoring Yusuff and increasing the prediction score by 5.0.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Yusuff's recent significant striking impact differential (16.37) is superior to Lopes' (-33.55), favoring Yusuff and increasing the prediction score by 2.0.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Yusuff's recent win percentage (67%) is higher than Lopes' (67%), slightly favoring Yusuff and increasing the prediction score by 2.0.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Yusuff has a better striking defense percentage (53.63%) compared to Lopes (22.80%), favoring Yusuff and increasing the prediction score by 2.0.

Past Model Performance

The model has been successful in predicting the outcomes of Sodiq Yusuff's fights, correctly predicting his wins over Alex Caceres and Don Shainis. However, the model incorrectly predicted Yusuff's loss to Edson Barboza.

For Diego Lopes, the model correctly predicted his win over Gavin Tucker but incorrectly predicted his loss to Pat Sabatini.

Given the model's mixed performance in predicting the outcomes for these fighters, there is some uncertainty in the current prediction.

Conclusion

The WolfTicketsAI model predicts Sodiq Yusuff to emerge victorious against Diego Lopes, primarily based on Yusuff's striking advantages and superior recent performances. Yusuff's technical striking, solid defense, and improved grappling make him a formidable opponent.

However, Diego Lopes' submission prowess cannot be overlooked. If Lopes manages to take the fight to the ground, he could potentially secure a submission victory.

While the model favors Yusuff, the past prediction performance for both fighters introduces some uncertainty. As always in MMA, anything can happen inside the octagon, and both fighters have the tools to secure a win.

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Analysis: Jalin Turner vs Renato Moicano

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jalin Turner to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Jalin Turner: -280 Renato Moicano: 210

Jalin Turner's Breakdown

Jalin Turner, known for his significant height and reach advantages in the lightweight division, brings a calculated and composed style to the octagon. Turner's fighting style is characterized by his effective use of the double jab and darting movements to create angles. These attributes, combined with his proficiency at maintaining distance and utilizing his long limbs, allow him to maximize his striking effectiveness.

In his recent fights, Turner has shown marked improvements in his ability to maintain composure under pressure and use his physical attributes to control fights. Adaptations in his game, such as better footwork and refined jab sequences, have enhanced his ability to manage the pacing of bouts.

Against Bobby Green, Turner's double jab was instrumental in extending his range and setting up subsequent strikes. His ability to strike and move fluidly, reminiscent of fighters like Israel Adesanya and Stephen Thompson, allowed him to effectively land while avoiding counterattacks.

However, Turner has faced challenges against wrestlers like Mateusz Gamrot who can pressure and close the distance. While Turner utilizes his reach with jabs and long kicks to maintain distance, opponents who can bridge that gap and get the fight to the ground may find success against him.

Renato Moicano's Breakdown

Renato Moicano is a well-rounded fighter with a strong submission game and evolving striking skills. His strengths lie in his grappling, where he actively pursues takedowns (averaging 1.89 takedowns per fight recently) and looks to control opponents on the ground.

On the feet, Moicano has shown improvements in his striking, particularly in his jab and leg kicks. He lands 0.85 leg kicks per minute and 3.12 head strikes per minute, demonstrating a diverse striking arsenal.

Moicano's recent performances showcase his ability to adapt his game plan based on his opponent. Against grapplers, he's comfortable engaging in grappling exchanges and seeking submissions. Against strikers, he's shown an ability to pressure and mix in takedowns to keep opponents guessing.

A potential weakness for Moicano could be his striking defense. He absorbs 2.87 head strikes per minute and has been knocked out in the UFC before. Against a lengthy, technical striker like Turner, Moicano will need to close the distance safely to avoid getting pieced up at range.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Turner's Length: Turner's 77" reach will be a significant factor in this fight. He'll look to maintain distance and punish Moicano with long strikes as he attempts to close the distance.
  • Moicano's Grappling: Moicano's path to victory likely involves getting this fight to the ground where he can work his submission game. He averages 1.89 takedowns per fight and will no doubt look to test Turner's takedown defense.
  • Striking Clash: On the feet, we have a classic matchup of range vs pressure. Turner will look to keep the fight at his preferred distance, while Moicano will attempt to get inside and either land his own strikes or secure a takedown.
  • Finishing Ability: Both men have shown an ability to finish fights. Turner has dispatched opponents with his striking and submissions, while Moicano has a plethora of submission wins on his record.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds significantly favor Turner in this matchup at -280 compared to Moicano's +210. This aligns with the model's prediction and suggests Turner's style and recent performances have him as a clear favorite.
  • Reach: Turner's 77" reach, 5 inches longer than Moicano's 72", is a key factor in the model's prediction. This reach advantage allows Turner to strike from distance and makes it more challenging for Moicano to close the distance without absorbing damage.
  • Striking: Turner's significant striking differential (landing 8.54 more significant strikes per minute than he absorbs) and striking impact differential (4.72 more strikes landed per minute than absorbed) point to his ability to outland opponents and win striking exchanges, factors that favor him in the model's eyes.

Past Model Performance

The model has a mixed record in predicting both Turner and Moicano's fights:

  • For Turner, the model correctly predicted his wins over Bobby Green and Jamie Mullarkey, but incorrectly predicted him to lose to Brad Riddell and win against Dan Hooker.
  • For Moicano, the model has been more accurate, correctly predicting his recent wins over Drew Dober, Brad Riddell, and Alexander Hernandez, but incorrectly picking Rafael Dos Anjos to beat him.

The mixed results suggest that while the model has some insight, there is potential inaccuracy to its predictions, especially in the case of Turner.

Conclusion

The model's prediction of a Turner victory seems rooted in his striking prowess and physical advantages. His length, striking accuracy, and ability to maintain distance are key factors that could trouble Moicano.

However, Moicano's grappling prowess and pressure could be the equalizers. If he can safely close the distance and get Turner down, the dynamics of the fight could shift rapidly.

Ultimately, this fight may come down to whether Moicano can get inside Turner's reach and implement his grappling, or if Turner can keep the fight at range and pick apart Moicano with his technical striking. While the model favors Turner, Moicano's path to victory is clear, making this an intriguing stylistic matchup.

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Analysis: Jessica Andrade vs Marina Rodriguez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jessica Andrade to Win

Score: 4 Odds: Jessica Andrade: -125 Marina Rodriguez: 105

Jessica Andrade's Breakdown

Jessica Andrade is a powerhouse in the UFC, known for her aggressive fighting style and raw strength. Her approach is characterized by relentless pressure, explosive takedowns, and a willingness to engage in striking exchanges. Andrade's physical power has been a key factor in her success, allowing her to overpower opponents in the clinch and on the ground.

Throughout her UFC career, Andrade has showcased her versatility by competing across multiple weight classes. Notable performances include her slam KO victory over Rose Namajunas to capture the strawweight title and her impressive flyweight debut. She has also shown the ability to adapt her strategy based on her opponent, mixing in short-range punches and elbows with her grappling.

However, Andrade's aggressive style can sometimes leave her vulnerable to counter-strikes and submissions. In recent fights, she has displayed improvements in her boxing combinations, head movement, and the incorporation of low kicks into her arsenal. These adjustments have made her a more well-rounded fighter.

Marina Rodriguez's Breakdown

Marina Rodriguez is a skilled striker with a well-rounded MMA game. She has a strong Muay Thai background, which is evident in her technical striking and effective use of range. Rodriguez's striking defense is also noteworthy, as she maintains a high guard and employs good head movement.

In the UFC, Rodriguez has proven to be a tough out for her opponents. She has a solid chin and excellent cardio, allowing her to maintain a high pace throughout her fights. Her most notable performances include her victories over Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Tecia Torres.

However, Rodriguez's grappling has been a point of concern. While she has shown improvements in her takedown defense, she can still be vulnerable to strong wrestlers. This was evident in her loss to Carla Esparza, where she struggled to keep the fight standing.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Stylistic Matchup: This fight presents an interesting clash of styles. Andrade's aggressive wrestling and heavy hands will be pitted against Rodriguez's technical striking and rangey kickboxing.
  • Grappling vs Striking: The outcome of this fight may largely depend on where it takes place. If Andrade can close the distance and secure takedowns, she could dominate with her ground-and-pound. However, if Rodriguez can keep the fight standing, her precise striking could pick apart Andrade.
  • Adaptability: Both fighters have shown the ability to adapt their game plans. Andrade has incorporated more striking into her recent fights, while Rodriguez has worked on her takedown defense. How well each fighter can adjust in the moment could be crucial.
  • Endurance: With both fighters known for their high-paced styles, cardio could play a significant role, especially if the fight goes into the later rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds significantly favor Jessica Andrade, which aligns with the model's prediction. Andrade's odds of -125 suggest she is the more likely winner.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Andrade's recent win percentage has increased the model's score by 3.0. This indicates that her current form and momentum are strong factors in her favor.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: The model's score was increased by 3.0 due to Andrade's recent takedown attempts per fight. Her wrestling-heavy style is a key aspect of her game and could be decisive against Rodriguez. Andrade attempts 4.24 takedowns per fight in her recent outings, compared to Rodriguez's 0.43.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Andrade's significant striking impact differential is 11.51, while Rodriguez's is 23.13. This suggests that Rodriguez lands with more impact in her significant strikes. However, the model only decreased the score by 1.0, implying that other factors outweigh this advantage for Rodriguez.

Past Model Performance

The model has had mixed results in predicting the outcomes of Jessica Andrade's fights. It correctly predicted her losses to Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield, but incorrectly picked her to win against Yan Xiaonan and Mackenzie Dern. The model's recent accuracy for Andrade's fights is 50%.

For Marina Rodriguez, the model has been more accurate, correctly predicting her win over Michelle Waterson-Gomez and her loss to Virna Jandiroba. However, it incorrectly predicted her to win against Amanda Lemos. The model's recent accuracy for Rodriguez's fights is 75%.

Given the model's mixed record for Andrade and the stylistic matchup of this fight, there is some uncertainty around the prediction. However, the model's strong score of 4 in favor of Andrade suggests it sees significant advantages for her in this bout.

Conclusion

The fight between Jessica Andrade and Marina Rodriguez promises to be an exciting clash of styles. Andrade's aggressive wrestling and power will collide with Rodriguez's technical striking and rangy kickboxing. The model's prediction of an Andrade victory is based on her strong recent form, wrestling-heavy style, and the bookmakers' odds. However, Rodriguez's precise striking and the model's mixed record for Andrade's fights add an element of intrigue. Ultimately, the adaptability and endurance of each fighter could be crucial in this compelling matchup. Regardless of the outcome, this fight has all the ingredients to be a thrilling addition to the UFC's strawweight division.

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Analysis: Bobby Green vs Jim Miller

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Bobby Green to Win

Score: 13 Odds: Bobby Green: -175 Jim Miller: 142

Bobby Green's Breakdown

Bobby Green is a seasoned lightweight known for his slick boxing, evasive head movement, and fan-friendly fighting style. His striking relies on precision, angles, and high output while minimizing damage absorbed through defensive responsibility. Green's composed demeanor under pressure allows him to stick to his game plan throughout fights.

In recent outings, Green has shown adaptability and improved striking defense. Against Grant Dawson, he timed a preemptive left straight that caught Dawson lunging in, leading to a TKO victory. This anticipatory striking contrasts with Green's usual counter-striking approach, displaying his strategic depth.

However, Green's style has its risks. His evasive leans and slips can leave him open to well-timed strikes, as seen against Jalin Turner who caught Green mid-slip with a straight. Defensive specialists like Dominick Cruz employ similar evasive tactics but with more darting out after exchanges.

Green's fight with Tony Ferguson showcased his crisp counter-punching and head movement. He mixed attacks and used feints to create openings against the durable, unorthodox Ferguson. While no definitive conclusion was provided, Green's efficiency and precision stood out.

Jim Miller's Breakdown

Jim Miller is a grizzled veteran of the lightweight division, known for his grappling prowess, submission threat, and durability over a long career. His aggressive grappling is complemented by a serviceable striking game, which he's used more calculatedly in recent years to set up takedowns.

Miller's longevity is a testament to his ability to evolve and remain competitive. In fights like the one against Nikolas Motta, Miller intelligently used leg kicks and a southpaw left straight to manage distance, setting up a fight-ending right hook in the second round.

Miller's grappling remains a potent threat, nearly submitting Alexander Hernandez from back control after being down on the scorecards. His jiu-jitsu allows him to seek submissions late in fights even when losing the stand-up battle.

However, Miller's age and mileage have shown in his struggles against faster, younger athletes who can outpace him on the feet. His path to victory often relies on crafty grappling exchanges where his experience shines. Even in losses, Miller's grit and submission danger add to his reputation as a tough out for anyone.

Previous Fight Breakdown

Bobby Green and Jim Miller have never fought before according to the data provided.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Contrasting styles: Green's evasive boxing vs Miller's grappling and recent striking tactics.
  • Green's striking evolution: Showing more preemptive striking along with his counter-punching.
  • Miller's veteran savvy: Using striking setups for grappling and capitalizing on opponent's mistakes.
  • Age and pace concerns for Miller: Has struggled with faster, younger strikers in recent years.
  • Paths to victory: Green's precision striking and defense vs Miller's submission threat and toughness.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction for Bobby Green is influenced by several key factors:

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Green's edge in landing impactful strikes over Miller is a major factor favoring him.
  • Odds: The betting odds significantly favor Green, increasing the model's confidence.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Green's recent performances landing effective strikes boosts his score.
  • Recent Win Percentage and Win Streak: Green's recent win rate and streak compared to Miller's pushes the prediction his way.

In contrast, some factors mildly favor Jim Miller but are outweighed by those for Green:

  • Recent Striking Impact Differential: Miller has a slight edge in overall striking impact recently.

And some categories like striking volume, takedowns, and striking defense have minimal statistical differences between the fighters.

Past Model Performance

The model has been mixed in predicting Bobby Green's fights: - Correctly predicted Green to lose to Jalin Turner and Islam Makhachev. - Incorrectly predicted him to lose to Nasrat Haqparast and beat Drew Dober and Grant Dawson.

For Jim Miller, the model has been more successful: - Correctly predicted Miller's last two wins over Gabriel Benitez and Donald Cerrone. - Incorrectly picked Miller to beat Alexander Hernandez in his last fight.

The inconsistent record for Green does introduce some uncertainty for this prediction.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI forecasts a Bobby Green victory over Jim Miller, favoring Green's striking advantages and recent form. Green's precise counter-boxing meshes well with his defensive slickness, though he'll need to mind Miller's grappling, especially late in the fight.

Miller's path to an upset would be through catching Green during an evasive lean and working submissions on the mat. However, the model sees Green's movement, reach, and recent striking performances as enough to outpoint the veteran Miller over three rounds.

Still, both fighters' vast experience, grit, and well-roundedness promise a compelling style clash. Green will need to stay sharp against Miller's crafty setups and submission danger to cement his status as an elite lightweight.

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Analysis: Deiveson Figueiredo vs Cody Garbrandt

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Deiveson Figueiredo to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Deiveson Figueiredo: -320 Cody Garbrandt: 235

Deiveson Figueiredo's Breakdown

Deiveson Figueiredo is renowned for his aggressive fighting style, versatility, and finishing ability. His multifaceted approach includes powerful strikes, solid wrestling, and effective submissions. Figueiredo often maintains a high pace, pursues finishes, and has shown resilience in adapting his strategy mid-fight.

In recent bouts, Figueiredo has demonstrated an evolution, broadening his skill set with improved wrestling and grappling to complement his striking prowess. Against Rob Font, he utilized sharp counter-striking, cross counters, and dominant ground positions to great effect. However, occasional defensive lapses and past endurance issues, which he has worked to improve, remain potential weaknesses.

Figueiredo's power retention and technical wrestling improvements at bantamweight position him as a renewed threat in the division. His ability to deploy a wide array of offensive tools will be a key factor in his success against top contenders.

Cody Garbrandt's Breakdown

Cody Garbrandt is known for his exceptional boxing skills, speed, and knockout power derived from his strong amateur boxing background. His ability to deliver quick, precise combinations has been a hallmark of his stand-up game.

However, Garbrandt's aggressive pursuit of knockouts has sometimes left him vulnerable defensively, particularly to counter-shots, as seen in his losses to T.J. Dillashaw and Pedro Munhoz. His speed allows him to close distance rapidly, which can overwhelm opponents but also expose defensive gaps.

After capturing the UFC Bantamweight Championship against Dominick Cruz, showcasing improved movement and defense, Garbrandt went through a rough patch with multiple losses. He has shown moments of evolution, attempting to adapt his style to be more defensively responsible, including a move to flyweight. His speed and power remain assets, but continued adaptations to his game will be crucial for future success.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Contrasting Styles: Figueiredo's versatile, aggressive approach with powerful strikes, wrestling, and submissions will clash with Garbrandt's elite boxing, speed, and knockout ability.
  • Figueiredo's Evolution: The Brazilian's recent improvements in wrestling and grappling, alongside his striking, make him a multi-dimensional threat. How he balances these tools against Garbrandt will be vital.
  • Garbrandt's Defensive Vulnerabilities: While possessing exceptional offensive boxing, Garbrandt has shown defensive lapses, especially when aggressively pursuing the finish. Maintaining defensive discipline will be crucial to avoid Figueiredo's power.
  • Adaptability: Both fighters have shown moments of evolution in their careers. Their ability to make strategic adjustments mid-fight could be a deciding factor.
  • Power vs Speed: Figueiredo's renowned power against Garbrandt's hand speed sets the stage for an explosive encounter. Who can effectively impose their strengths may determine the outcome.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The current odds significantly favor Deiveson Figueiredo (-320) over Cody Garbrandt (235), aligning with the model's prediction.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Figueiredo's higher recent win percentage of 67% compared to Garbrandt's 67% supports the model's lean towards Figueiredo.
  • Significant Striking: Figueiredo's advantages in significant striking output differential and significant striking impact differential suggest he may have the edge in striking exchanges, contributing to the model's prediction.
  • Reach: Figueiredo's 3-inch reach advantage (68" vs 65") could enable him to better control distance and land strikes, further influencing the model's assessment.

Past Model Performance

The model has had mixed results in predicting the outcomes of Deiveson Figueiredo's recent fights: - Against Rob Font, the model incorrectly predicted Font to win. - Against Brandon Moreno (twice), the model's predictions were inaccurate.

For Cody Garbrandt's recent fights: - The model correctly predicted Garbrandt's wins against Brian Kelleher and Trevin Jones.

While the model has been accurate in its last two predictions for Garbrandt, the incorrect predictions for Figueiredo's recent fights suggest some uncertainty. This could be considered a risk factor when assessing the reliability of the current prediction.

Conclusion

The clash between Deiveson Figueiredo and Cody Garbrandt promises to be a high-stakes, dynamic encounter. Figueiredo's multifaceted offensive arsenal, coupled with his recent improvements in wrestling and grappling, make him a formidable opponent. Garbrandt's elite boxing skills, speed, and knockout power are potent weapons, but his occasional defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by the hard-hitting Brazilian.

The model's prediction of a Figueiredo victory, supported by the betting odds and certain statistical advantages, suggests he may have the upper hand. However, Garbrandt's ability to close distance and deliver rapid, precise combinations could be a significant factor, especially if he can maintain defensive discipline.

Ultimately, the outcome may hinge on which fighter can more effectively impose their game plan and make the necessary adjustments as the bout unfolds. While the model favors Figueiredo, the potential for an explosive, unpredictable battle remains high given the contrasting styles and capabilities of these two elite competitors.