Results: UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot

Fight Info:
Location: Atlantic City, New Jersey, United States
Elevation: 2.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
33.33% 50.0% 40.0%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
50.0% 100.0% 70.0%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
66.67% 50.0% 60.0%
Selected Bets for Event:
ROI: -76.43%
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Erin Blanchfield, Vicente Luque
  • Odds: 168
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Bruno Silva, Bill Algeo
  • Odds: 102
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Nursulton Ruziboev, Chidi Njokuani, Jamall Emmers
  • Odds: 180
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Loopy Godinez, Jacob Malkoun
  • Odds: 122
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Julio Arce
  • Odds: -560

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis
SHAP Chart

Analysis: Erin Blanchfield vs Manon Fiorot

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Erin Blanchfield to Win

Score: 7 Odds: Erin Blanchfield: -154 Manon Fiorot: 120

Erin Blanchfield's Breakdown

Erin Blanchfield is an emerging force in the women's flyweight division with a strong grappling base. She has shown impressive adaptability, complementing her wrestling with improved striking in recent fights. Against Taila Santos, Blanchfield weathered early adversity before using her grappling to turn the tables and secure a win. She also scored a notable submission victory over former champion Jessica Andrade, demonstrating her ability to handle physically imposing opponents.

Blanchfield's game revolves around relentless takedown attempts, clinch work, and top control. Her signature inside trips and body lock takedowns allow her to drag fights to the mat where she's most dangerous. On the feet, while not as technical as some strikers, her striking is functional enough to set up her grappling entries.

Manon Fiorot's Breakdown

Manon Fiorot is a talented striker with a karate background. Utilizing crisp technique, smart footwork, and a deep arsenal of strikes, she effectively controls distance and overwhelms opponents with volume. Her side-stance and diverse kicks are particularly effective weapons that opponents struggle to deal with.

While primarily a striker, Fiorot has shown steady improvements to her wrestling and clinch game. She's become adept at defending takedowns and separating from grappling exchanges to get back to her preferred striking range. Her win over Jennifer Maia showcased her developing fight IQ and ability to stick to a smart game plan against a skilled veteran.

Analysis and Key Points

Fiorot will look to keep the fight standing and pick apart Blanchfield with precise kicks and punches from range. Meanwhile, Blanchfield will seek to close the distance, clinch up, and drag Fiorot to the mat where she can unleash her dominant top game.

The key for Blanchfield will be pressuring forward without taking too much damage and chaining together takedown attempts when she's able to get her hands on Fiorot. For Fiorot, lateral movement, counter-striking as Blanchfield steps in, and diligently defending takedowns will be crucial.

Given Blanchfield's strong grappling and Fiorot's takedown defense still being somewhat of a question mark, the grappling could be the deciding factor. If Blanchfield can consistently ground Fiorot, she has a clear path to victory. But if Fiorot can keep it standing, her striking advantage will grow more significant as the fight progresses.

Understanding the Prediction

The model favors Blanchfield with a score of 7, likely due to several key factors:

  • Blanchfield's superior grappling and ability to finish fights on the mat. With a submission rate of 1.19 per fight, much higher than Fiorot's 0, Blanchfield is a constant threat.

  • Blanchfield's wrestling metrics are impressive with 2.86 takedowns landed per fight recently at a 62% accuracy rate. In contrast, Fiorot's 18% takedown defense in her recent fights suggest vulnerability.

  • Blanchfield being a sizable betting favorite at -154 compared to Fiorot at +120 is a data point the model relies on heavily.

  • Blanchfield's perfect 100% win rate in recent fights, showcasing her momentum and current form.

While Fiorot has the edge in striking metrics like significant strike differential and accuracy, Blanchfield's grappling upside seems to outweigh that in the model's assessment. The lack of data on how Fiorot fares against an elite grappler likely contributes to the model's confidence in Blanchfield.

Past Model Performance

  • The model is an impressive 4-0 in predicting Blanchfield's fights, including her last two victories over Santos and Andrade. This bolsters confidence in its assessment of her skills.

  • For Fiorot, the model is 2-1, with a recent incorrect prediction. This hints that there may be some gaps in how the model is assessing her abilities and room for error.

Conclusion

All things considered, WolfTicketsAI's pick of Erin Blanchfield seems sound. Her grappling prowess and the model's strong track record in predicting her fights are hard to ignore.

However, Manon Fiorot's striking ability makes her a live underdog that can't be counted out. If she's made strides in takedown defense and can maintain distance, there's a real path to victory for her.

Overall, this shapes up as an exciting clash of styles between two talented contenders in the women's flyweight division. While I favor Blanchfield in line with the model's pick, Fiorot could easily rise to the occasion and score the upset if she can implement her game plan.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Vicente Luque vs Joaquin Buckley

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Vicente Luque to Win

Score: 2 Odds: Vicente Luque: -160 Joaquin Buckley: 124

Vicente Luque's Breakdown

Vicente Luque is a dangerous striker with a well-rounded skill set in the UFC's welterweight division. Known for his aggressive stand-up style and finishing ability, Luque often engages in striking exchanges, relying on his chin and counter-punching. However, this approach sometimes leads to defensive lapses, leaving him open to absorbing damage.

In his recent fight against Rafael Dos Anjos, Luque showcased his evolving grappling skills by effectively using ankle pick takedowns to exploit Dos Anjos' stance and take the fight to the ground multiple times. This adaptability and offensive grappling allowed Luque to control the fight despite Dos Anjos' experience.

Luque's striking power and willingness to engage make him a constant threat, but his aggressive style has also led to losses, such as his KO defeat to Geoff Neal. If Luque can continue sharpening his grappling and strike a balance between aggression and defense, he remains a formidable contender in the division.

Joaquin Buckley's Breakdown

Joaquin Buckley is an explosive striker with a dynamic fighting style in the UFC's middleweight division. His ability to deliver powerful and unexpected strikes, like his viral spinning back kick KO of Impa Kasanganay, makes him a dangerous opponent. However, Buckley's defensive skills can be tested when faced with high-volume strikers or strong wrestlers.

Buckley's recent performances showcase his efforts to refine his technique and pace himself, avoiding overcommitting to power shots that leave him open to counters. His striking power remains a significant asset, as demonstrated in his KO win over Antonio Arroyo and his doctor's stoppage victory against Albert Duraev.

When facing opponents like Alex Morono, who bring high output and pressure, Buckley's success hinges on finding openings for his powerful strikes while managing his stamina and defensive responsibilities. His unpredictability and knockout potential make him a challenging matchup for many fighters.

Analysis and Key Points

The matchup between Vicente Luque and Joaquin Buckley presents a fascinating clash of styles. Luque's well-rounded skill set, with his aggressive striking and improved grappling, will be tested against Buckley's explosive power and unorthodox techniques.

Luque's ability to mix in takedowns and control the fight on the ground could be a key factor, as it would allow him to neutralize Buckley's striking threat. However, Buckley's unpredictability and knockout power mean that he is always dangerous, even when being controlled on the ground.

On the feet, Luque's combination of volume and power could pressure Buckley, but he will need to be wary of Buckley's explosive counters and unexpected strikes. Buckley's defensive lapses could be exploited by Luque's accurate striking, but Buckley's ability to end the fight with a single shot always looms.

Understanding the Prediction

According to the SHAP data, the odds heavily favor Vicente Luque, increasing the model's prediction score by 6 points. This aligns with Luque's status as a proven contender in the welterweight division.

However, Buckley's recent win percentage decreased the model's score by 2 points, suggesting that his inconsistency and the model's mixed success in predicting his fights are factors in the prediction.

Luque's advantages in significant striking impact differential, striking impact differential, and striking defense percentage all contributed to the model's prediction, each increasing the score by 1 point. These stats reflect Luque's power, accuracy, and defensive skills.

Buckley's reach advantage slightly decreases the prediction score, while the fighters' similar significant striking output differentials and recent striking output differentials largely cancel each other out in the model's assessment.

Past Model Performance

The model has a mixed record in predicting both fighters' performances. For Luque, it correctly predicted wins against Dos Anjos and Chiesa but incorrectly favored him in losses to Neal and Muhammad. Similarly, the model accurately predicted Buckley's wins over Morono and Alhassan but missed on his losses to Curtis and Imavov.

This inconsistency suggests that both fighters' styles and performances can be challenging to predict, adding an element of uncertainty to the model's assessment. Luque's recent KO loss to Neal and Buckley's explosive but risky style are factors that could make this fight harder to predict.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Vicente Luque to win against Joaquin Buckley, citing Luque's overall skill set, striking impact differentials, and defensive abilities as key factors. However, the model's mixed success in predicting both fighters' past performances and Buckley's explosive, high-risk style add uncertainty to the prediction.

If Luque can effectively mix his striking and grappling, pressure Buckley, and exploit defensive lapses, he has a strong chance of securing the victory. However, Buckley's knockout power and unpredictability mean that he is always a threat, and a single explosive strike could change the course of the fight.

This matchup promises to be an exciting clash of styles, pitting Luque's well-rounded skills against Buckley's explosive power and unorthodox techniques. While the model favors Luque, the potential for a stunning finish from either fighter makes this a compelling and unpredictable contest.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Chris Weidman vs Bruno Silva

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Bruno Silva to Win

Score: 1.0 Odds: Chris Weidman: 215 Bruno Silva: -290

Chris Weidman's Breakdown

Chris Weidman, a former UFC Middleweight Champion, brings a well-rounded skill set to the octagon. His wrestling pedigree, honed during his time as an NCAA Division I All-American, has been a cornerstone of his MMA success. Weidman's ability to control fights with his grappling and ground-and-pound has been instrumental in many of his victories.

However, recent performances have highlighted potential vulnerabilities in Weidman's game. His striking defense and susceptibility to leg kicks have been exploited by opponents, leading to significant losses. Weidman's last fight against Brad Tavares ended in a unanimous decision loss, further underscoring the need for adaptations in his approach.

Weidman's recent win percentage of 33% over his last 3 fights is a concern, especially considering his recent KO/TKO loss to Uriah Hall in April 2021. This suggests a downward trend in his career trajectory that he will need to overcome against a dangerous striker like Bruno Silva.

Bruno Silva's Breakdown

Bruno Silva is known for his aggressive striking style and knockout power. His willingness to engage in striking exchanges, utilizing his boxing and Muay Thai skills, makes him a formidable opponent. Silva's recent knockouts of Jordan Wright and Andrew Sanchez highlight his finishing ability.

However, Silva's last three fights have resulted in two losses, including a submission defeat to Brendan Allen and a unanimous decision loss to Alex Pereira. These setbacks expose potential weaknesses in Silva's grappling defense and his ability to adapt to opponents with diverse skill sets.

Silva's recent win percentage of 33% is a red flag, indicating inconsistency in his recent performances. However, his knockout power and aggressive style still pose a significant threat to Weidman.

Analysis and Key Points

The match-up between Chris Weidman and Bruno Silva presents a classic clash of styles. Weidman's wrestling and grappling prowess will be pitted against Silva's explosive striking and knockout power.

For Weidman to emerge victorious, he will need to rely on his wrestling to neutralize Silva's striking. Securing takedowns and maintaining top control will be crucial. Weidman's ground-and-pound could also be a key factor, as Silva has shown vulnerability to strikes on the ground in previous fights.

On the other hand, Silva will look to keep the fight standing and unleash his powerful strikes. His aggressive style could pressure Weidman and exploit the former champion's recent vulnerabilities in striking defense. If Silva can find his range and connect with significant shots, he has the potential to end the fight quickly.

Understanding the Prediction

The WolfTicketsAI model predicts Bruno Silva to win with a high confidence score of 1.0. Several factors from the SHAP data and the fighters' statistics support this prediction:

  1. The odds heavily favor Silva at -290, compared to Weidman at +215. This significant difference in odds aligns with the model's prediction and suggests that Silva is perceived as the stronger fighter by oddsmakers.

  2. Silva's recent takedowns attempted per fight (3.18) is notably lower than Weidman's (7.63). This could indicate that Silva's takedown defense has improved, potentially nullifying Weidman's grappling advantage.

  3. Silva's striking accuracy (50.87%) and significant striking accuracy (45.41%) in recent fights are higher than Weidman's (48.11% and 39.84%, respectively). This supports the notion that Silva's striking could be a decisive factor in the fight.

  4. Weidman's striking defense percentage (42.17%) and significant striking defense percentage (47.61%) in recent fights are lower than Silva's (50.92% and 34.67%, respectively). This suggests that Weidman may be more vulnerable to Silva's striking attacks.

However, it's worth noting that Weidman has a higher recent takedown accuracy (42.30%) compared to Silva's (19.67%). If Weidman can consistently secure takedowns, he could potentially control the fight and mitigate Silva's striking advantage.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTicketsAI model has a mixed record in predicting both fighters' past performances. While the model correctly predicted Weidman's loss to Brad Tavares, it has a less accurate track record with Silva's fights, incorrectly predicting his losses to Gerald Meerschaert and Alex Pereira.

This inconsistency in the model's predictions for Silva's fights introduces some uncertainty in the current prediction. It suggests that Silva's performances can be more challenging to assess, particularly when faced with opponents who have grappling skills or unconventional striking styles.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the WolfTicketsAI model predicts Bruno Silva to win against Chris Weidman with a high confidence score. The prediction is supported by the significant odds difference favoring Silva, his recent striking accuracy, and Weidman's declining striking defense.

However, Weidman's wrestling background and grappling skills cannot be overlooked. If he can effectively utilize his takedowns and control the fight on the ground, he could potentially neutralize Silva's striking advantage.

The model's mixed record in predicting Silva's past fights introduces some uncertainty in the prediction. Silva's performances against opponents with grappling prowess or unorthodox striking have proven challenging to assess accurately.

Ultimately, the fight is likely to be determined by whether Weidman can successfully implement his grappling game plan or if Silva can keep the fight standing and land significant strikes. While the model favors Silva, the stylistic match-up and the fighters' recent performances suggest that the outcome is not a foregone conclusion.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Nursulton Ruziboev vs Sedriques Dumas

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Nursulton Ruziboev to Win

Score: 22 Odds: Nursulton Ruziboev: -320 Sedriques Dumas: 235

Nursulton Ruziboev's Breakdown

Nursulton Ruziboev enters this fight with an impressive 35-8 professional record. In his lone UFC appearance, he scored a KO/TKO victory over Brunno Ferreira in July 2023. Ruziboev showed strong wrestling in that fight, landing 11.69 takedowns per 15 minutes at 100% accuracy. On the feet, he landed 4.68 significant strikes per minute while absorbing none in return.

Some key strengths for Ruziboev are his wrestling heavy approach (11.69 takedowns landed per fight), striking defense (absorbs zero head strikes per minute), and recent form (81% win rate in last fights).

However, with only one UFC fight, there is limited data to fully assess his skills at the highest level. This will be something to watch.

Sedriques Dumas's Breakdown

Sedriques Dumas is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently earning unanimous decision wins over Abu Azaitar and Cody Brundage after losing his debut to Josh Fremd by submission.

In his UFC tenure, Dumas attempts 1.36 takedowns per fight but only completes them at a 12% rate. Striking-wise, he lands 2.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.02, a -0.83 differential. His striking defense sits at 56%.

Dumas had mixed performances against Fremd (loss) and Brundage (close decision win). But he looked improved vs Azaitar, perhaps finding his footing in the UFC.

Analysis and Key Points

This fight pits a strong wrestler in Ruziboev against a more striking-oriented fighter in Dumas. The key will likely be if Ruziboev can consistently take Dumas down and control him on the mat.

On the feet, Ruziboev seems to have the edge, absorbing no head strikes in his debut while Dumas absorbs 1.75 per minute recently. Ruziboev also landed at a higher rate of 4.68 vs Dumas' 2.19.

However, Dumas' 3 fight experience edge in the UFC could be a factor, as he's fought increasingly tough competition. Ruziboev looked great in his debut but still needs to prove it wasn't a one-off.

Understanding the Prediction

The betting odds favoring Ruziboev (-320 vs +235) moved the model's score most significantly by 16 points. This, combined with his 81% recent win rate compared to Dumas' 67%, further increased it by 4 points.

Other key factors favoring Ruziboev were his higher recent takedown attempts per fight (11.69 vs 1.36), his better recent significant strike differential (+3 vs -5.32) and overall (+3 vs -2), and stronger striking defense (absorbs 0 vs 3.02 significant strikes per minute).

The model seems to be keying in on Ruziboev's strong wrestling and striking metrics, both overall and in recent fights. Dumas' metrics are less impressive in those areas.

Past Model Performance

The model has only predicted one fight for Ruziboev (no data on if it was correct). For Dumas, it's 2 for 3 in predicting his fights correctly.

With such a small sample for both, it's hard to have extremely high confidence in the model's performance history with these two fighters specifically. More data is needed.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts a Nursulton Ruziboev victory, likely based on his high-level wrestling and striking stats from his UFC debut win.

However, Sedriques Dumas' 3-fight UFC experience and improvements shown in his last bout make him a live underdog. He'll need to keep the fight standing and outland Ruziboev.

Ruziboev is favored, but not without some reasonable paths to victory for Dumas. While the model leans Ruziboev, his single-fight UFC sample and Dumas' unpredictability make this a tough one to call with extremely high confidence.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Bill Algeo vs Kyle Nelson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Bill Algeo to Win

Score: 16
Odds: Bill Algeo: -200 Kyle Nelson: 154

Bill Algeo's Breakdown

Bill Algeo is a well-rounded fighter with a versatile skill set. His strengths include a high-volume striking game, solid takedown defense, and good conditioning that allows him to push a high pace. In his recent fights, he's shown an ability to mix up his striking effectively, incorporating punches, kicks and knees to keep opponents guessing.

Algeo's most recent win over Alexander Hernandez showcased his toughness and ability to adapt mid-fight. After losing the first round, he made adjustments and rallied to win a unanimous decision.

Kyle Nelson's Breakdown

Kyle Nelson is coming off back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Fernando Padilla and Blake Bilder. He has solid striking fundamentals and good grappling, with a high rate of submission attempts per fight (0.88 in his last 3).

However, Nelson absorbs a fairly high number of significant strikes per minute (5.26) and has been stopped by strikes in 2 of his 5 UFC losses. His takedown accuracy of just 24% in recent fights is also concerning.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as a competitive and entertaining fight between two skilled featherweights. The key for Algeo will be using his diverse striking to keep Nelson guessing and defending takedowns to keep the fight standing. If he can maintain a high pace and make Nelson work, his cardio could be a major factor.

For Nelson, he'll want to get the fight to the ground where he can work for submissions. His path to victory likely involves weathering Algeo's early storm and trying to drag him into deep waters. Defensively, he must avoid taking too much damage in striking exchanges.

Understanding the Prediction

The model predicts Algeo as a moderate favorite, driven largely by his advantages in striking metrics like significant striking differential and striking accuracy. Algeo lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.48, while Nelson absorbs 5.26 per minute. Algeo also has a significant edge in striking defense (54% vs 44%).

Nelson's grappling numbers are solid, but with only a 24% takedown accuracy, he may struggle to consistently get Algeo down. The odds also favor Algeo significantly, suggesting the betting market agrees with the model's assessment.

However, Algeo's loss to Andre Fili and the model's inaccurate prediction there does introduce some uncertainty. Nelson is a live underdog, especially if he can turn this into a grappling match.

Past Model Performance

In Algeo's last 5 fights, the model has predicted him correctly 3 times (vs Hernandez, Brown, and Carlyle) and incorrectly favored him in his loss to Fili. It also incorrectly predicted him to lose to Burns. So while generally accurate, the model has shown some inconsistency in assessing Algeo.

For Nelson, the model has only predicted 2 of his last 4 fights correctly, favoring Choi and Herbert in his losses to them, while incorrectly picking Padilla and Bilder to beat him. This suggests more uncertainty in evaluating Nelson's abilities and limitations.

Conclusion

Bill Algeo is a justified favorite in this matchup based on his high-level striking, strong takedown defense, and proven ability to go hard for 3 rounds. Kyle Nelson definitely has a chance, especially if he can use his grappling effectively, but his striking defense is a concern and Algeo has more ways to win.

Considering the model's past performance, a bet on Algeo is reasonable but not a lock, as Nelson has shown he can defy the odds. For anyone considering a wager, keep the bet size modest as neither fighter is dominant enough to justify a huge play. This should be a competitive, action-packed scrap for as long as it lasts.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Chidi Njokuani vs Rhys McKee

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Chidi Njokuani to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Chidi Njokuani: -225 Rhys McKee: 172

Chidi Njokuani's Breakdown

Chidi Njokuani is a striking specialist with a background in Muay Thai and kickboxing. His long reach allows him to maintain distance and pick apart opponents with precision strikes. His recent move up to middleweight seems to have suited him well, providing a balance of stamina and power.

Njokuani's methodical striking approach was on full display in his win over Marc-Andre Barriault. He countered Barriault's inside low kick attempts with sharp 1-2 combos, demonstrating excellent timing and fight IQ. This ability to exploit openings is a key strength.

However, Njokuani's last two fights have resulted in losses, one by split decision to Albert Duraev and the other by KO to Michal Oleksiejczuk. The KO loss in particular highlights a potential vulnerability, as Njokuani was stopped in the first round. His takedown defense and grappling remain areas to watch.

Rhys McKee's Breakdown

Rhys McKee is still a relatively unknown quantity in the UFC with just 3 fights in the promotion so far, all losses. The most notable was a first round TKO defeat to fast-rising star Khamzat Chimaev.

From the limited data available, McKee appears to be a primarily striking-based fighter. His striking stats are solid if unspectacular, landing 6.06 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy. Defensively he absorbs 8.46 per minute, suggesting there are holes in his defense that opponents have exploited.

McKee's grappling abilities are still untested at the UFC level. He's yet to score a takedown but has defended 2 out of 3 attempts. More data is needed to fully assess his wrestling and submission skills.

With no wins yet in the UFC and coming off a decision loss to Ange Loosa, it's hard to gauge where McKee's ceiling is. The Chimaev loss, while against an elite opponent, is concerning as an early stoppage. At just 28 years old though, time is on McKee's side to continue developing.

Analysis and Key Points

This matchup pits a dangerous and experienced striker in Njokuani against a relative UFC newcomer in McKee. On paper, Njokuani's technical kickboxing and 7" reach advantage should trouble McKee, who has yet to show he can hang with UFC-caliber strikers.

McKee's path to victory likely requires making this an ugly grappling match and testing Njokuani's weakness there. But with no takedowns yet in the UFC, it's unclear if McKee has the wrestling prowess to get Njokuani down consistently.

The big X-factor is how Njokuani bounces back from two straight losses. At 34, there are questions about how much he can still improve and adapt his style. Meanwhile for McKee, this is a chance to prove he belongs in the UFC and isn't just fodder for rising contenders.

Understanding the Prediction

Several key data points from the SHAP analysis support Njokuani as the favorite:

Njokuani's significant striking impact differential is much higher than McKee's (+1.75 vs -37.92 recently). This suggests Njokuani lands the harder, more impactful shots which can end fights.

Njokuani also has a sizeable advantage in striking defense (46% vs 34% recently). Combined with his reach, this should allow him to strike at range while avoiding damage.

The betting odds heavily favor Njokuani at -225 vs +172 for McKee. While not definitive, wide odds like this generally correlate with the most likely outcome.

Areas of concern in the data for Njokuani are his negative striking output differential (-6.17 recently) and 0% win rate in his last few fights. This could point to a decline in volume and ability to get the job done lately.

For McKee, his recent striking differentials are all hugely negative, painting the picture of a fighter who gets outstruck both in volume and impact. Most concerning is his -60.87 recent striking impact differential.

So in summary, the SHAP data and fighter stats point to Njokuani being able to outstrike McKee and while avoiding damage, with his power giving him a good chance of a finish. McKee needs to find a way to get inside and grapple, but hasn't shown that ability yet at this level.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTicketsAI model has had mixed results predicting these two fighters.

For Njokuani, it's been correct just 1 out of 4 times (the Todorovic fight). It predicted him to beat Rodrigues, Duraev and most recently Oleksiejczuk, but he lost all 3. Notably, the Oleksiejczuk fight ended in a R1 KO, defying the model.

This suggests the model may be overrating Njokuani based on his previous dominant wins, and not adapting quickly enough to his recent slide. A 1-3 run is very concerning no matter how highly-rated a fighter was before.

For McKee, the model has just one prediction, correctly taking Loosa to beat him. But with such a small sample size, it's premature to assess the model's accuracy on McKee.

Overall, there are reasons to be cautious about the model's high confidence (17 point) prediction here given Njokuani's recent results. The stylistic matchup seems to favor him, but his form has dipped lately in ways the model hasn't accounted for.

Conclusion

Chidi Njokuani is rightfully favored over Rhys McKee based on his striking credentials and McKee's lack of a proven UFC track record. Njokuani's length, precise striking and KO power should be the difference if he's still close to his best form.

But Njokuani is also on a 2-fight skid and at risk of a fast fall from relevance if he loses again here. At 34, his margin for error is slim. He needs a vintage performance to stabilize his trajectory.

For McKee, it's a chance to score by far the biggest win of his career and announce himself as a welterweight prospect. But to do so, he likely needs to show grappling skills we haven't seen from him yet in the octagon.

Both men should be fighting with a sense of desperation - Njokuani to preserve his status, and McKee to prove he belongs. That could lead to explosive action for as long as it lasts.

The pick is Njokuani to get back on track, but this feels closer than the odds and prediction score indicate. McKee is live as a sizeable underdog if he can drag Njokuani into deep waters. Proceed with healthy caution on the Njokuani side.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Nate Landwehr vs Jamall Emmers

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jamall Emmers to Win

Score: 16 Odds: Nate Landwehr: +162 Jamall Emmers: -210

Nate Landwehr's Breakdown

Nate "The Train" Landwehr is a tenacious fighter known for his high-pressure style and willingness to brawl. He pushes forward aggressively, often eating shots to land his own. While this makes for exciting fights, it also leaves him open defensively.

In his recent loss to Dan Ige, Landwehr's limitations were exposed against a technical striker who could maintain distance. However, just prior to that he showcased improved grappling by submitting Austin Lingo. Landwehr's best path to victory is dragging opponents into a slugfest.

Jamall Emmers's Breakdown

Jamall Emmers is a well-rounded fighter with crisp striking and solid wrestling. He's adept at mixing up his attacks, seamlessly transitioning between boxing combinations and takedown attempts.

In his last fight, Emmers showcased his punching power by knocking out Dennis Buzukja in the first round. Prior to that, he suffered a close split decision loss to Jack Jenkins, but the WolfTickets model still favored him in that matchup.

Emmers' diverse skill set makes him a tricky matchup for many featherweights. He can win fights anywhere, whether it's outpointing opponents on the feet or grinding them out with grappling.

Analysis and Key Points

This matchup pits Landwehr's relentless pressure against Emmers' technical prowess. Landwehr will look to make it an ugly brawl, wading forward behind hooks and uppercuts. Emmers' key is maintaining distance with his jab and mixing in takedowns to slow Landwehr's advance.

The longer the fight stays at range, the better for Emmers. He's the cleaner striker and can pick apart Landwehr from the outside. If Landwehr gets inside, expect Emmers to tie him up or change levels for a takedown.

Conditioning could play a big factor. Landwehr pushes a frenetic pace but has faded down the stretch in fights. Emmers may have the edge if it goes the distance.

Defensively, Emmers holds the clear advantage. He's harder to hit cleanly and is more apt at avoiding damage. Meanwhile, Landwehr's style is dependent on being able to absorb shots.

Overall, Emmers' paths to victory seem more plentiful. He can outpoint Landwehr on the feet, outlast him in a battle of attrition, or grind him down with wrestling. Landwehr likely needs a knockout or to completely overwhelm Emmers with pressure.

Understanding the Prediction

The odds being heavily in Emmers' favor (-210 compared to +162 for Landwehr) decreased the model's score by 10 points, meaning it sees Emmers as a substantial betting favorite.

Emmers' superior recent win percentage increased the score by 2 points, indicating the model puts stock in his current form and momentum.

Interestingly, Landwehr's higher striking impact differential increased the score slightly despite favoring Emmers overall. This may reflect Landwehr's knockout power being his clearest path to victory.

Some of the other key stats slightly decreasing the score for Emmers were his lower TrueSkill rating, recent striking impact differential, and recent average striking output. But overall, the bulk of the data favors him.

In particular, Emmers' 22.39 significant striking output differential dwarfs Landwehr's 4.64, painting the picture of the more active and accurate striker. He also attempts far more takedowns (5.76 per fight vs Landwehr's 2.45).

Past Model Performance

The model has been up and down in predicting both fighters. For Landwehr, it correctly pegged his last two fights but wrongly picked him to lose to Onama before that.

With Emmers, it has leaned heavily toward him, picking him in his last 3 bouts. However, it was burned by the split decision loss to Jenkins after predicting a win with 72% confidence.

So while the model's recent track record is solid, it's not infallible. The Jenkins fight in particular highlights how close matchups can easily go either way despite what the numbers suggest.

Conclusion

All signs point to Jamall Emmers being a stylistic nightmare for Nate Landwehr. His multi-faceted game and ability to dictate range give him a clear edge on paper.

However, Landwehr's intangibles can't be discounted. His heart, durability and swarming pressure have carried him to victory in fights he was expected to lose. If he can turn it into a brawl and land something big early, an upset is very possible.

Ultimately, the pick is Emmers via decision. His striking and wrestling advantages should be enough to navigate Landwehr's aggressive style. But don't be shocked if the "The Train" throws predictions off the track and finds a way to win.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Virna Jandiroba vs Loopy Godinez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Loopy Godinez to Win

Score: 16 Odds: Virna Jandiroba: 150 Loopy Godinez: -194

Virna Jandiroba's Breakdown

Virna Jandiroba is a formidable submission specialist with a strong grappling background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Her approach to MMA revolves around taking the fight to the ground and seeking submission finishes. Jandiroba excels at controlling opponents on the mat, transitioning between positions, and utilizing various submission techniques to secure victories.

While her striking is considered a work in progress, Jandiroba has shown improvements in recent bouts, adding more tools to her arsenal to become a more well-rounded fighter. Her technical proficiency on the ground has earned her several wins via submission in the UFC.

However, Jandiroba's recent performance has been inconsistent. She's coming off a unanimous decision win over Marina Rodriguez, but prior to that suffered a unanimous decision loss to Amanda Ribas. Her grappling-heavy style can be neutralized by opponents with strong takedown defense and striking abilities.

Loopy Godinez's Breakdown

Loopy Godinez is riding an impressive 4-fight win streak in the UFC, showcasing a well-rounded skill set. She's coming off a split decision win over Tabatha Ricci and a submission victory over Elise Reed prior to that.

Godinez is a versatile fighter who can hold her own on the feet and on the ground. She averages 3.39 takedowns per fight and has a respectable 46% takedown accuracy. Her striking output is also solid, landing 4.31 significant strikes per minute.

One area of concern for Godinez is her takedown defense, which sits at just 16%. Against a grappler like Jandiroba, this could be a vulnerability. However, Godinez's ability to scramble and get back to her feet mitigates this weakness to some extent.

Analysis and Key Points

This matchup pits Jandiroba's grappling prowess against Godinez's more well-rounded game. The key for Jandiroba will be to get the fight to the ground early and often, looking to control position and hunt for submissions.

For Godinez, the gameplan will likely revolve around keeping the fight standing, using her striking to keep Jandiroba at bay, and defending takedowns. If she can make Jandiroba work hard for takedowns and wear her down with strikes, it will bode well for her chances.

Both fighters are durable and have never been finished in the UFC. This suggests the fight could go the distance, coming down to who can impose their game plan more effectively over the course of three rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

Looking at the SHAP data, the model's prediction favoring Godinez is driven heavily by the betting odds (-194 for Godinez vs +150 for Jandiroba). This suggests that the betting market sees Godinez as a clear favorite.

Other factors boosting the prediction for Godinez include her 4-fight win streak (compared to Jandiroba being 2-2 in her last 4), her 3-inch reach advantage, and her higher striking output stats across the board.

Interestingly, while Jandiroba has better takedown numbers, attempting 6.44 takedowns per fight compared to 3.39 for Godinez, the model still favors Godinez. This could be due to Godinez's edge in striking being weighted more heavily.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTicketsAI model has been accurate in 4 of 5 previous Loopy Godinez fights, including correctly predicting her last 4 wins. The confidences scores for Godinez has typically been in the 0.30-0.40 range, suggesting she won't win purely on her abilities and fights can be competitive, but yet enough to win repeatedly.

However, the model has struggled a bit more with Jandiroba, getting her last 2 fights split between 1 correct and 1 incorrect prediction. This suggests the model has a tougher time assessing how Jandiroba's grappling-centric style will fare in any given matchup.

Overall though, the model's strong recent performance on Godinez fights provides some confidence behind its prediction of her victory here, though likely in another closely contested battle.

Conclusion

The model's pick of Loopy Godinez is logical given her momentum, slight edge in striking metrics, and reach advantage. However, Virna Jandiroba's submission skills are a clear threat that Godinez will need to be wary of.

Ultimately, this shapes up as a classic grappler vs. striker matchup where the fighter who can impose their preferred game plan will likely emerge victorious. Slight lean towards Godinez being able to keep it standing enough to win a decision, but Jandiroba is live for a submission if she can get it to the mat consistently.

All in all, looks like an intriguing style clash with some decent arguments supporting the model's prediction of a Loopy Godinez win, but by no means a certainty. Should be a fun scrap for however long it lasts.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Julio Arce vs Herbert Burns

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Julio Arce to Win

Score: 29 Odds: Julio Arce: -500 Herbert Burns: 355

Julio Arce's Breakdown

Julio Arce is entering this fight as a substantial betting favorite at -500 odds. The 33-year-old New Yorker has a solid 18-6 overall record, though he is just 2-2 in his last 4 UFC bouts.

Arce is primarily a striker, landing 4.12 significant strikes per minute at a 34.8% accuracy rate. His striking defense is quite good at 68.1%. He mixes in 2.97 head strikes and 0.93 body strikes per minute.

While primarily a striker, Arce does have some grappling acumen. He lands 0.52 takedowns per fight at a 30.8% accuracy rate. He's also shown a submission threat, with 0.39 submissions per fight over his UFC career.

One concern is that Arce was knocked out by Song Yadong in November 2021, which always raises questions about a fighter's chin going forward. However, he bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Daniel Santos in his most recent outing.

Herbert Burns's Breakdown

Herbert Burns comes in as a sizable +355 underdog against Arce. The 34-year-old Brazilian has an 11-4 overall record, but is just 2-2 in the UFC.

Burns is a skilled grappler, landing 4.39 takedowns per fight at an impressive 75% accuracy rate. He's also very dangerous with submissions, securing 2.93 submissions per fight in the UFC. On the feet, Burns only lands 1.56 significant strikes per minute.

However, Burns has been knocked out in his last two UFC fights, first by Daniel Pineda in August 2020 and more recently by Bill Algeo in July 2022. Getting finished in back-to-back bouts is always a huge red flag, especially against a solid striker like Arce.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as a classic grappler vs striker matchup between Burns and Arce. Burns will no doubt look to get this fight to the mat early and often, either pulling guard or shooting for takedowns. With a 75% takedown accuracy rate and nearly 3 submissions per fight, the ground is clearly his world.

For Arce, the gameplan will be to stuff the takedowns and make Burns deal with his high-volume striking attack. Arce lands over 4 significant strikes per minute and has a strong 68% striking defense. If he can keep this fight standing, he should have a huge advantage.

The big X-factor is Burns' chin and ability to absorb punishment after suffering consecutive KO losses. If Arce can land some heavy shots early, we could see a repeat of the Algeo fight.

Understanding the Prediction

The WolfTickets model is favoring Arce fairly heavily with a score of 29, and it's not hard to see why based on the underlying metrics:

  • The odds discrepancy is massive, with Arce at -500 and Burns at +355. This big betting line moved the model score 18 points in Arce's favor.

  • Arce has a sizable striking advantage, landing 12.7 more significant strikes per minute and absorbing 15 fewer strikes than Burns. These striking differentials increased the model score by 8 points for Arce.

  • Arce's striking defense is much better at 65.4% compared to just 19.3% for Burns. This 46 percentage point edge in defense moved the score 4 more points for Arce.

  • Arce has been more successful recently, winning 33% of his last few fights compared to just 33% for Burns recently. This added 2 points to Arce's score.

So in totality, the vast advantage Arce has in the striking department, combined with the huge betting odds in his favor, are the key drivers of the WolfTickets prediction.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTickets model has limited data to work with for both fighters. For Arce, it correctly predicted his loss to Montel Jackson last time out. But for Burns, the model incorrectly picked him to beat Bill Algeo in his most recent fight.

With just one past prediction each, it's hard to have a ton of confidence in the AI's track record for either man. This adds more uncertainty to an already difficult style matchup.

Conclusion

Overall, WolfTickets predicts a Julio Arce victory and the underlying data supports that pick. Arce is the much better and more technically sound striker, and if he can maintain distance and defend takedowns, he should be able to pick Burns apart on the feet.

However, Burns is a world-class grappler and if he can drag Arce into his world, he could quickly turn the tables with a submission. Arce's takedown defense will likely be the biggest key to the fight.

The model has limited history predicting these two fighters, so some caution is warranted on the betting front. But if Arce can avoid the ground game of Burns, he should have an excellent chance of getting his hand raised.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Andre Petroski vs Jacob Malkoun

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jacob Malkoun to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Andre Petroski: +164 Jacob Malkoun: -215

Andre Petroski's Breakdown

Andre Petroski is a formidable middleweight with a 10-3 record, but he's coming off a devastating KO/TKO loss to Michel Pereira in his last fight. This recent knockout raises some concerns about his chin and ability to withstand heavy strikes.

Despite the loss, Petroski had been on a solid run prior, with decision wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Wellington Turman, showcasing his well-rounded game. He averages 4.91 strikes landed per minute and 3.61 significant strikes, with a striking accuracy of 57%. His grappling is also strong, with 2.49 submissions per fight and 4.48 takedowns at a 55% accuracy.

Jacob Malkoun's Breakdown

Jacob Malkoun is 7-3 but was shockingly disqualified in his last fight against Cody Brundage. Prior to that though, he scored an impressive decision win over Nick Maximov.

Malkoun's strength is clearly his grappling. He attempts a whopping 16.27 takedowns per fight, securing 7.20 of them (44% accuracy). On the feet, he's competent with 7.95 strikes and 3.89 significant strikes landed per minute, both at a high accuracy of 67% and 57% respectively. Defensively he's solid too, absorbing only 2.56 significant strikes per minute.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as a classic grappler vs grappler matchup. Both men will likely look to implement their wrestling and jiu-jitsu rather than engaging in a slugfest on the feet.

Malkoun seems to have the grappling edge on paper. He attempts and secures takedowns at a much higher clip than Petroski, and historically has had more success with his wrestling in the UFC. If he can get Petroski down consistently, he could ride out a decision or hunt for a submission.

Petroski's path to victory likely involves keeping the fight standing and using his slight edge in striking output to outland Malkoun. He'll need to maintain distance and defend takedowns effectively. The knockout loss in his last fight is concerning though and could impact his confidence.

Overall, Malkoun's grappling prowess and the model's past success in predicting his fights make him a justified favorite here. However, Petroski is dangerous and if he can keep it standing, he could definitely score the upset.

Understanding the Prediction

Let's unpack some key factors from the SHAP data that influenced the model's prediction:

The betting odds have shifted the prediction significantly (-10 points) in Malkoun's favor. This aligns with the betting market's assessment of Malkoun as a moderate -215 favorite.

Malkoun averages a staggering 15.58 takedown attempts per fight recently, compared to just 9.55 for Petroski. This discrepancy shifted the prediction by 3 points in Malkoun's favor given his clear wrestling advantage.

Interestingly, Petroski's higher significant striking impact shifted the prediction slightly in his favor by 1 point. This suggests if he can keep it standing, he may have an edge in damage output.

Malkoun's 4-inch reach advantage benefited his prediction by 1 point. At range, he may be able to strike more effectively than Petroski.

Overall, the betting odds and Malkoun's massive advantage in takedowns attempted per fight seem to be the key factors tilting the prediction in his favor, with Petroski's striking impact keeping it reasonably close.

Past Model Performance

The model has a solid track record with Malkoun, correctly predicting 2 of his last 3 fights. The lone miss was the DQ loss to Brundage, which can likely be discounted as a fluke occurrence. This breeds confidence in the model's prediction for Malkoun here.

With Petroski, the model's been less consistent. It's 2 for 4 in his last 4 fights, incorrectly picking him to lose twice as an underdog. The model did correctly favor Pereira over him last fight, but Petroski losing by KO is worrying. There's less certainty in the model's assessment of Petroski overall.

Conclusion

All things considered, WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Jacob Malkoun victory looks justified. His elite grappling and takedown ability should be the difference-maker here, and the model's past success in predicting his fights breeds confidence.

However, Andre Petroski is a live underdog with dangerous striking and solid wrestling of his own. If he can keep the fight standing and land heavy shots, he could definitely score the upset KO.

Overall though, the smart money looks to be on Malkoun getting it done with his suffocating grappling game. He should be able to control Petroski on the mat and either grind out a decision or find a submission. While not a lock, Malkoun to win is a solid betting proposition based on the matchup and the model's analysis.