Results: UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura

Fight Info:
Location: Enterprise, Nevada, United States
Elevation: 778.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
50.0% 75.0% 60.0%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
33.33% 50.0% 40.0%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
Selected Bets for Event:
ROI: 113.61%
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Marcin Tybura, Gerald Meerschaert
  • Odds: 443
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Mike Davis, Josiane Nunes
  • Odds: 127
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Kennedy Nzechukwu, Bryan Battle
  • Odds: -109
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Gerald Meerschaert, Jaqueline Amorim
  • Odds: 425
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Marcin Tybura, Isaac Dulgarian
  • Odds: 240

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis
SHAP Chart

Here is my analysis of the upcoming fight between Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura:

Analysis: Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Marcin Tybura to Win

Score: 5 Odds: Tai Tuivasa: -125 Marcin Tybura: 105

Tai Tuivasa's Breakdown

Tai Tuivasa is a powerful heavyweight striker known for his knockout power. He has 15 wins and 6 losses in his MMA career. However, he is currently on a 3-fight losing streak, having been finished in his last 3 fights by submission against Alexander Volkov and by KO/TKO against Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane. This is a concerning trend, as getting knocked out can have cumulative effects.

Prior to this skid, Tuivasa had rattled off 5 straight KO/TKO wins, showcasing his heavy hands. But his striking defense has been lacking, absorbing 3.47 head strikes per minute. His takedown defense is solid at 83% though. Tuivasa needs to shore up his defense and fight a more tactical fight to get back on track.

Tuivasa will always have a puncher's chance with his power, but he can't just rely on that against skilled opponents.

Marcin Tybura's Breakdown

Marcin Tybura is a well-rounded veteran with 24 wins and 8 losses. He's coming off a KO loss to Tom Aspinall, but had won 6 of his previous 7 fights before that.

Tybura has a strong grappling base, averaging 1.39 takedowns per fight at 34% accuracy. But his striking has really improved, now landing 6.41 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.55. He mixes up his strikes well to the head and body.

Analysis and Key Points

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Tuivasa will look for the KO with his boxing, while Tybura will likely try to wear him down in the clinch and with takedowns.

Tuivasa's path to victory is catching Tybura early before he gets tired. Tybura was KO'd in the 1st round in his last fight. But if Tybura can weather the early storm, his cardio and more well-rounded skillset could take over as the fight goes on.

The key for Tybura is to drag Tuivasa into the later rounds with clinch work and grinding him out. Tuivasa's output and defense drop off significantly from round 1 to round 3.

With Tuivasa on a losing skid and Tybura having more ways to win, I lean towards Tybura being able to implement his game plan and earn a decision or late finish. But Tuivasa's power is always live.

Understanding the Prediction

The model predicts Marcin Tybura to win this fight with a confidence score of 5, largely based on the wide discrepancy in the odds, with Tybura being a +105 underdog compared to Tuivasa as a -125 favorite.

But the model sees advantages for Tybura in his superior striking defense (55% to 43%), better significant striking output differential (-2.56 to -5.14), and advantage in significant strikes landed per minute (3.55 to 3.98). Tuivasa has an edge in power with his 1.24 knockdowns per fight compared to just 0.07 for Tybura.

So the data suggests Tuivasa has a striking power advantage, but Tybura is the more defensively sound and productive striker who doesn't absorb as much damage. Over 3 rounds, those striking differentials could add up in Tybura's favor, especially if he can use his wrestling (1.39 takedowns per fight).

Past Model Performance

The model has been extremely accurate in predicting both fighters' recent fights. It's 4-0 in predicting Tuivasa's last 4 fights, including his current 3-fight losing streak. That includes correctly picking Ciryl Gane, Sergei Pavlovich, and Alexander Volkov to beat him recently.

For Tybura, the model is 2-1 in his last 3, correctly predicting his last win over Blagoy Ivanov and loss to Tom Aspinall, but incorrectly picking Alexandr Romanov to beat him (Tybura won by majority decision).

With Tuivasa's losing skid and the model's accuracy in picking against him recently, it lends increased confidence to this prediction for Tybura to get the win.

Conclusion

In this battle of heavyweight finishers, I believe Marcin Tybura has more paths to victory with his well-rounded skillset compared to Tai Tuivasa's striking-heavy approach. Tuivasa certainly has fight-changing power, but his striking defense is porous and he fades over 3 rounds.

If Tybura can survive the early onslaught, his cardio, volume striking, and wrestling could carry him to a decision win or late finish. And with the model being on a hot streak predicting both fighters' recent fights, I have faith in the data pointing towards a Tybura win.

But with heavyweight MMA, the old adage is that it only takes one punch. So while I favor Tybura to get his hand raised, I wouldn't count out Tuivasa's knockout power. It should be an exciting clash of styles for as long as it lasts.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Bryan Battle vs Ange Loosa

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Bryan Battle to Win

Score: 5.0 Odds: Bryan Battle: -168 Ange Loosa: 137

Bryan Battle's Breakdown

Bryan Battle is a rising star in the UFC's welterweight division. With an impressive 11-2 record, he has shown versatility and adaptability in his fighting style. Battle is comfortable striking, can take the fight to the ground, and has displayed solid submission skills.

In his recent fights, Battle has demonstrated the ability to adjust to his opponents' pace and style. Against Gabe Green, he secured a highlight reel KO/TKO victory in the first round, showcasing his striking prowess. In his unanimous decision win over Tresean Gore, he utilized a diverse array of techniques including kicks, grappling, and transitions between striking and wrestling, keeping Gore on the defensive throughout.

However, Battle did suffer a setback in his loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov, indicating he still has room for growth against top-tier competition. Overall though, his trajectory in the UFC has been promising, with a 4-1 record in the promotion.

Ange Loosa's Breakdown

Ange Loosa enters this fight with a solid 10-3 MMA record, but has less UFC experience than his opponent with a 2-1 record in the promotion. In his UFC debut, he lost a unanimous decision to Mounir Lazzez, but has since rebounded with back-to-back unanimous decision wins over AJ Fletcher and Rhys McKee.

Loosa has shown himself to be a high-output striker, landing over 10 significant strikes per minute in his UFC fights. He mixes up his strikes well to the head, body and legs. He's also not afraid to grapple, attempting over 5 takedowns per fight, though his accuracy is only 50%.

Defensively, Loosa absorbs a lot of strikes, particularly to the head. His striking defense is below 50%. This could be an area of concern against a dangerous finisher like Battle.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as an exciting welterweight clash between two promising prospects. Battle has the edge in UFC experience and has shown a more well-rounded skill set to date. His ability to mix striking and grappling could pose problems for Loosa.

However, Loosa's high-volume striking attack can't be overlooked. If he can keep the fight standing and draw Battle into a brawl, he could find success. The key for him will be shoring up his defensive deficiencies.

Battle's path to victory likely involves using his diverse striking to set up takedowns and grappling exchanges where he can hunt for a submission. Loosa needs to maintain a high pace, stuff takedowns, and hope to either outpoint Battle or land a fight-changing shot.

Understanding the Prediction

The WolfTicketsAI model predicts a Bryan Battle win with a confidence score of 5. Let's dive into the key factors:

Striking Impact Differentials: - Battle: Significant Striking Impact Differential 6.33, Recent 5.57 - Loosa: Significant Striking Impact Differential 3.33, Recent -20.23

This indicates Battle lands with more power compared to the strikes he absorbs, while recently Loosa has been hit harder than he's dished out. Advantage Battle.

Striking Defense:
- Battle: 35.6%, Recent 37.5% - Loosa: 49.3%, Recent 52.1%

Both have defensive holes, but Loosa's is slightly better. However, factoring in Battle's striking impact edge, his lower defense may be less of a liability. Slight advantage Loosa.

Takedowns: - Battle: 0.94 Takedowns/Fight, 3.77 Attempts/Fight
- Loosa: 2.67 Takedowns/Fight, 5.33 Attempts/Fight

Loosa is the more active takedown artist, but that's tempered by his 50% accuracy. Battle is more selective but may have the grappling edge if he can get it there. Push.

Odds/Win Percentage:
- Odds heavily favor Battle at -168 to Loosa's +137 - Battle has the better overall win percentage at 84.6% to Loosa's 76.9%, though Loosa's UFC win percentage is slightly higher

The odds are clearly on Battle's side and align with his overall body of work. Clear advantage Battle.

Past Model Performance

WolfTickets has had some success predicting both fighters, but not with perfect accuracy:

Bryan Battle: - Correctly predicted wins vs AJ Fletcher and Takashi Sato - Incorrectly predicted loss vs Gabe Green (Battle won) - 2-1 record in last 3 predictions

Ange Loosa:
- Correctly predicted win vs Rhys McKee - Incorrectly predicted loss vs AJ Fletcher (Loosa won) - 1-1 record in last 2 predictions

With Battle having more UFC fights, the model has a larger sample size to work with. Its recent accuracy on Battle, combined with the lopsided odds, lends confidence to its pick. However, the model's misses on both fighters suggest a Battle win is far from a sure thing.

Conclusion

The WolfTicketsAI model's pick of Bryan Battle is a reasonable one based on the tale of the tape. His striking impact, well-rounded skills, and overall body of work suggest he should be favored.

However, Ange Loosa's high-output striking and slight defensive edge make him a live underdog. If he can keep the fight standing and draw Battle into a firefight, an upset is possible.

For bettors, the -168 price on Battle isn't unreasonable but the model's imperfect prediction history on both fighters suggests caution. This shapes up as a competitive fight that could go either way.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Ovince Saint Preux vs Kennedy Nzechukwu

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Kennedy Nzechukwu to Win

Score: 22 Odds: Ovince Saint Preux: 385 Kennedy Nzechukwu: -500

Ovince Saint Preux's Breakdown

Ovince Saint Preux, known for his athletic ability and unorthodox fighting style, has had a long and varied career in the UFC's light heavyweight division. His laid-back demeanor belies his explosive tendencies in the Octagon, which have resulted in several highlight-reel finishes.

One of OSP's key strengths is his opportunistic grappling. He's secured multiple wins with the rare "Von Flue" choke, demonstrating his ability to find submissions from unconventional positions. However, this reliance on sudden bursts of offense has also led to inconsistency in his performances.

In his recent fights, OSP has struggled to maintain a high pace throughout the full duration of a match. This was evident in his most recent loss to Philipe Lins by KO/TKO, a concerning result given that OSP had been finished in a similar manner in two of his previous four fights.

Based on his last 5 UFC bouts, OSP's recent win percentage stands at just 33%, suggesting his best days may be behind him. At 39 years old, he will need to make significant adjustments to his game if he hopes to remain competitive against the division's younger, hungrier contenders.

Kennedy Nzechukwu's Breakdown

In contrast to the veteran OSP, Kennedy Nzechukwu is a rising prospect in the light heavyweight division. Known for his durability and pressure-heavy style, Nzechukwu has shown steady improvement over his 9-fight UFC career.

Most recently, Nzechukwu demonstrated a new facet to his game in his win over Karl Roberson. Rather than relying solely on his striking as he had in the past, Nzechukwu utilized his wrestling to take Roberson down and secure a finish with elbows from mount.

This evolution in Nzechukwu's approach is significant, as it suggests he is rounding out his skill set to become a more complete mixed martial artist. His ability to weaponize his grappling alongside his already-potent striking makes him a dangerous matchup for anyone in the division.

Over his last 5 fights, Nzechukwu has maintained a solid 67% win rate. At age 30, he is entering his physical prime and seems poised for a run at the top 15 if he can continue to show growth and rack up victories.

Analysis and Key Points

This matchup pits a cagey veteran against a hungry up-and-comer, and the outcome will likely hinge on which man can impose his game plan. For OSP, the keys to victory will be using his rangy striking to keep Nzechukwu at bay and seizing any opportunities to lock up a submission in the clinch or on the ground.

Nzechukwu, meanwhile, will look to pressure OSP with his striking and use his newfound wrestling skills to ground the former title challenger. If he can avoid getting caught in one of OSP's tricky submissions, Nzechukwu's youth, athleticism, and multi-faceted attack should give him the edge as the fight wears on.

Understanding the Prediction

The betting odds reflect Nzechukwu as a heavy -500 favorite, and the WolfTicketsAI model is in agreement, predicting a Nzechukwu victory with a confidence score of 22.

A deeper look at the key factors influencing this prediction:

  • Nzechukwu holds a 3-inch reach advantage (83" vs 80"), which could help him control the striking range.
  • Nzechukwu's 67% win percentage over his last 5 fights is far superior to OSP's 33% in the same span, indicating Nzechukwu is in better form.
  • Nzechukwu lands 4.44 significant strikes per minute compared to OSP's 2.67, suggesting he will be the more active and impactful striker.
  • OSP absorbs 1.85 head strikes per minute, a vulnerability that plays into Nzechukwu's tendency to throw high-volume head strikes (3.83 per minute).
  • The TrueSkill ratings favor Nzechukwu (29.88) over OSP (27.35), aligning with the betting odds and the model's ultimate prediction.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has an impressive track record predicting both fighters' recent bouts:

  • The model has correctly called Nzechukwu's last 3 fights, all wins with confidence scores between 0.75 and 0.76.
  • The model also correctly predicted OSP's most recent win over Mauricio Rua and loss to Philipe Lins.

This past success lends credence to the model's prediction of a Nzechukwu victory in this matchup.

Conclusion

While OSP's experience and unorthodox submission skills can never be counted out, the momentum in this matchup clearly favors Nzechukwu.

Between his striking output, grappling improvements, and recent form, the rising contender seems primed to notch the biggest win of his career over a respected veteran of the sport. Unless OSP can pull a rabbit out of his hat, look for Nzechukwu to secure a stoppage in the later rounds or cruise to a clear-cut decision victory.

SHAP Chart

Here is my analysis of the upcoming fight between Christian Rodriguez and Isaac Dulgarian:

Analysis: Christian Rodriguez vs Isaac Dulgarian

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Isaac Dulgarian to Win

Score: 5 Odds: Christian Rodriguez: 127 Isaac Dulgarian: -152

Christian Rodriguez's Breakdown

Christian Rodriguez is coming into this featherweight bout with an impressive 10-1 professional record, including 3 wins and 1 loss in the UFC. His lone UFC defeat came by decision against Jonathan Pearce in his debut at 145 lbs. Since then, he has picked up two solid unanimous decision wins over Raul Rosas Jr. and Cameron Saaiman at bantamweight.

Rodriguez has a well-rounded skill set, landing 2.99 significant strikes per minute while defending 58% of his opponents' significant strike attempts. He averages 1.83 takedowns per fight and has shown slick submission skills, picking up a submission victory in his UFC debut against Joshua Weems.

Isaac Dulgarian's Breakdown

Undefeated prospect Isaac Dulgarian will be making his second UFC appearance after scoring a first-round TKO over Francis Marshall in his debut. The 6-0 fighter showcased excellent wrestling and vicious ground-and-pound in that victory.

Dulgarian landed 3 takedowns and racked up 7.29 significant strikes per minute against Marshall before earning the stoppage late in Round 1. He absorbed zero significant strikes in the brief encounter. If he can implement a similar grappling-heavy game plan against Rodriguez, he could find success.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as a classic grappler vs striker matchup. Rodriguez will want to keep things standing where he can outpoint Dulgarian with his diverse striking arsenal. Dulgarian's clearest path to victory will be taking Rodriguez down and unleashing his nasty top game.

Dulgarian's striking defense (71% sig. strike defense) gives him a buffer to close distance for takedowns. And if he can consistently drag Rodriguez to the mat and keep him there, the undefeated fighter has a great chance to remain unbeaten.

However, Rodriguez's 58% takedown defense is solid and he's no slouch in the grappling department himself. The Rodriguez/Marshall fight showed that Dulgarian can be hit on the feet, so if Rodriguez can stuff some early takedowns, his striking volume could be a major factor over 15 minutes.

Understanding the Prediction

The model sees Dulgarian as a decent sized favorite (65% implied odds) in this matchup. His 71% significant strike defense rate is a key factor, negating some of Rodriguez's striking advantage.

Additionally, while both fighters are trending upwards, Dulgarian's 1.000 recent win percentage and 33.0 recent significant striking impact differential suggest he's surging more than Rodriguez (1.00 win%, 6.29 impact differential) right now.

However, Rodriguez's stats across the board are strong, which is why this fight is closer than the odds suggest. His -9.0 overall significant striking impact differential is concerning, but he's shown improvements lately.

Past Model Performance

With no past predictions for Dulgarian and a 1-1 record on Rodriguez's last two fights, it's hard to have a ton of confidence in either direction based on the model's history. As mentioned earlier, this adds uncertainty to the pick.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts a close fight that Isaac Dulgarian will ultimately win, likely by implementing his wrestling and top pressure. However, there are clear paths to victory for both fighters, and Christian Rodriguez certainly has the skills to play spoiler.

Given the lack of prediction data on both fighters, a bet on Dulgarian should be made cautiously here. The undefeated fighter has looked impressive but needs to prove it against a step up in competition.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Pannie Kianzad vs Macy Chiasson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Macy Chiasson to Win

Score: 11 Odds: Pannie Kianzad: 165 Macy Chiasson: -200

Pannie Kianzad's Breakdown

Pannie Kianzad is a technical striker with crisp boxing and good footwork. She prefers to keep fights standing where she can utilize her jab and straight punches to outscore opponents. While her striking is her strength, she has been improving her grappling and clinch work to become a more well-rounded mixed martial artist.

In recent fights, Kianzad has shown vulnerabilities against pressure fighters who can close the distance and negate her striking advantage. This was evident in her last loss to Ketlen Vieira who was able to take Kianzad down and control her on the mat.

Macy Chiasson's Breakdown

Macy Chiasson is a large bantamweight who utilizes her size and length well. She has an evolving striking game, improving in her ability to maintain distance with a long jab and straight punches. She complements this with a strong grappling base that she can fall back on.

Chiasson's most recent fights have revealed some potential limitations. She was knocked out by Irene Aldana in September 2022, exposing a vulnerability to power strikers. Prior to that, she lost to Raquel Pennington by submission, indicating potential holes in her submission defense.

Previous Fight Breakdown

Kianzad and Chiasson fought once before in November 2018, with Chiasson winning by submission. In that fight, Chiasson was able to use her size and grappling advantage to get Kianzad to the mat and secure the finish. This result is worth noting as it demonstrates a clear path to victory for Chiasson if she can replicate that game plan.

Analysis and Key Points

This fight likely comes down to whether Kianzad can keep the fight standing and outpoint Chiasson with her technical boxing, or if Chiasson can use her size and grappling to ground Kianzad as she did in their first meeting.

Kianzad's path to victory involves using her footwork to maintain distance, working off her jab, and mixing in combinations to pile up points. She'll want to avoid tie-ups and grappling exchanges with the larger Chiasson.

For Chiasson, getting the fight to the mat is key. She can use her reach to set up clinches and takedowns, then utilize her top game to score damage and hunt for submissions. On the feet, she'll want to pressure Kianzad and not allow her to settle into a striking rhythm.

Understanding the Prediction

The model is favoring Chiasson here likely due to the betting odds (-200 for Chiasson vs +165 for Kianzad) and Chiasson's 3-inch reach advantage.

Other key factors per the SHAP data: - Kianzad's better recent win percentage is working in her favor - Chiasson's superior striking defense is seen as an advantage - The striking metrics slightly favor Chiasson in terms of impact and volume

However, the model seems to be putting a lot of weight on the odds and reach, as most other metrics are either close between the two fighters or favor Kianzad.

Past Model Performance

As noted earlier, the model has had mixed results predicting these two fighters recently:

  • It's 1-1 in Kianzad's last two fights
  • It's 0-2 in Chiasson's last two fights

This suggests that the prediction here should be taken with a grain of salt, as the model has struggled to get a consistent read on both fighters. Bettors should be cautious, as this feels like a difficult fight to predict with high confidence.

Conclusion

The model's pick of Chiasson seems to be rooted in her betting line and physical advantages. However, Kianzad's technical striking and recent form make her a live underdog.

With the model's shakiness in recent predictions for both women, this shapes up as a challenging fight to bet on. The pick is Chiasson, but not with a ton of conviction. Her grappling likely gives her more paths to victory, but Kianzad certainly has a shot if she can keep it standing and avoid Chiasson's power.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Gerald Meerschaert vs Bryan Barberena

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Gerald Meerschaert to Win

Score: 2 Odds: Gerald Meerschaert: -225 Bryan Barberena: 185

Gerald Meerschaert's Breakdown

Gerald Meerschaert is a seasoned veteran in the UFC's middleweight division, known for his high-level submission grappling. With 11 submission wins in the UFC, Meerschaert is always a threat on the ground. His recent record has been mixed, alternating wins and losses in his last 6 fights. In his most recent bout, he suffered a split decision loss to Andre Petroski.

Looking at Meerschaert's key stats, his strengths are clear - he averages 1.53 submissions per fight and 2.01 takedowns per fight. His takedown accuracy of 37.5% and takedown defense ratio of 1.9 are also solid. On the feet, he lands 3.3 significant strikes per minute at 44.8% accuracy.

Some potential concerns are his striking defense (44.3%) and the fact that he's been knocked out twice in his last 4 fights. At 35 years old with 52 pro fights, durability could become an issue.

Bryan Barberena's Breakdown

Bryan "Bam Bam" Barberena is an action fighter known for his toughness, cardio, and brawling style. He's coming off back-to-back losses, getting submitted by grapplers Gunnar Nelson and Rafael dos Anjos in his last 2 fights at welterweight.

Barberena is primarily a striker, landing 5.53 significant strikes per minute at 48.3% accuracy in the UFC. He has good volume, attempting over 11 significant strikes per minute. Grappling is not his strength, averaging just 0.14 takedowns per fight with 22% accuracy. His takedown defense is solid though at 82.4% in his last 7 fights.

The major concern here is that Barberena is moving up to middleweight for the first time in the UFC. He's been finished in 3 of his last 5 fights, all by fighters known for their grappling. Going up against a bigger submission threat in Meerschaert is very dangerous.

Analysis and Key Points

This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup, with Meerschaert holding significant advantages if he can get the fight to the mat. Barberena's path to victory would be keeping the fight standing and using his cardio to outwork Meerschaert over 3 rounds.

However, moving up to 185lbs for the first time is a big ask for Barberena, who has been submitted multiple times at welterweight recently. He'll be facing a larger opponent who is extremely dangerous on the ground.

With a 5-inch reach advantage and a wide edge in grappling stats, Meerschaert seems well-equipped to find a submission here, as he's done many times before. Barberena's takedown defense will be tested against a fighter who lands over 2 takedowns per fight.

The other major factor is Barberena's recent form - he's lost 3 of his last 5 and hasn't won since 2021. At 34 years old, it's fair to wonder if his best days are behind him. Meerschaert has also struggled lately, but a favorable stylistic matchup here could get him back on track.

Understanding the Prediction

Looking at the SHAP values, the biggest factor increasing Meerschaert's win probability is his advantage in recent takedowns attempted per fight. This aligns with his grappling-heavy style and Barberena's vulnerability to submissions.

Other key factors favoring Meerschaert are his 77" reach (to Barberena's 72") and his higher TrueSkill rating. Meerschaert also has the edge in recent win percentage (33% to Barberena's 0%).

The main data point favoring Barberena is the betting odds, as he's a sizable underdog. However, given the stylistic mismatch and Barberena moving up in weight, the model seems to be going against the public perception here.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has had mixed results predicting both fighters, but has correctly identified Barberena's weaknesses against grapplers in his last 2 losses. With Meerschaert being a submission specialist, the model's historical performance aligns with this current prediction.

That said, Meerschaert's inconsistency and age make him far from a lock. The model was wrong in picking against him versus Bruno Silva last year. An accumulation of damage over a long career is a valid concern.

Conclusion

Considering the style matchup, size difference, and recent form, a prediction of a Meerschaert victory seems reasonable. His grappling acumen should be the difference-maker against Barberena moving up to middleweight.

However, given both fighters' inconsistency and the model's mixed historical performance, this fight does carry some uncertainty. Meerschaert will need to be careful not to get drawn into a brawl. If he can get the fight to the ground though, a submission win is very much in play.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Natan Levy vs Mike Davis

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mike Davis to Win

Score: 14 Odds: Natan Levy: 240 Mike Davis: -310

Natan Levy's Breakdown

Natan Levy is a promising up-and-comer in the UFC's lightweight division with an 8-1 record overall and 2-1 in the UFC. He's coming off back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Mike Breeden and Genaro Valdez, showcasing his grappling skills with 11 takedown attempts per fight on average.

However, Levy's striking defense is a potential weakness, absorbing 4.1 significant strikes per minute. While he's only been finished once, his lack of stopping power (0 KO/TKOs) means he often has to go the distance, which could be problematic against heavy-handed opponents.

Mike Davis's Breakdown

Mike Davis is a well-rounded fighter with a 10-2 MMA record and 3-1 in the UFC. He's won three straight, most recently defeating Viacheslav Borshchev by unanimous decision. Davis has serious knockout power, finishing 5 of his 10 wins by KO/TKO including a highlight reel stoppage of Thomas Gifford.

Grappling could be an issue for Davis, as he's been submitted before and only defends takedowns at a 50% rate. But his 64% takedown accuracy shows he's capable of implementing his own wrestling game plan.

Analysis and Key Points

This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup. Levy will look to take Davis down and control him on the mat, while Davis wants to keep it standing and hunt for the KO.

The key for Levy is to close the distance safely and not get caught coming in. His 11 takedown attempts per fight average is impressive but he'll need to convert more than his usual 54% to win.

For Davis, stopping takedowns is priority number one. If he can keep it standing, his 6.02 significant strikes landed per minute and big power advantage should be the difference. Davis' submission loss to Gilbert Burns is concerning, but Burns is an elite grappler and Levy doesn't have the same caliber of BJJ.

Ultimately, I favor Davis' striking and superior strength of schedule. Levy is talented but untested against this level of opponent. Unless he can consistently take Davis down, it's likely Beast Boy's power will be too much.

Understanding the Prediction

The odds are a key factor in the model favoring Davis. At -310, the betting market sees Davis as a sizeable favorite.

Some of Davis' other advantages per the model are significant striking impact differential (lands 2 more powerful shots per minute than absorbed), striking accuracy (57% to Levy's 53%), and significant striking defense (58% to Levy's 54%).

The one area that favors Levy is recent takedown attempts per fight. He averages 10.8 attempts to Davis' 4.25. However, unless Levy can finish those takedowns at a high percentage and keep Davis grounded, the model believes Davis' striking will still be the difference.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has only predicted one fight for each man: - Correctly picked Levy over Breeden with 75% confidence - Correctly picked Davis over Borshchev with 77% confidence

So while it's a small sample size, the model does have a 100% hit rate on these two fighters. The 77% confidence score on Davis' last fight is in line with the 69% implied odds of his -310 betting line.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts a Mike Davis victory, Davis' striking prowess and big edge in strength of schedule make him the rightful favorite. He will need to show improved takedown defense against a grapple-heavy approach from Levy. But if Davis can keep this fight standing, he should be able to pick up another KO/TKO victory.

For Levy to pull the upset, he needs to take Davis out of his comfort zone with repeated takedowns and control time on the mat. It's a tall order, and Davis' power makes every entry attempt dangerous.

The model has a limited track record on these fighters, so some caution is warranted on a hefty -310 moneyline. But Davis deserves to be a solid favorite and the pick is justified. Look for "Beast Boy" to make a statement in his lightweight debut.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Josiane Nunes vs Chelsea Chandler

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Josiane Nunes to Win

Score: 7 Odds: Josiane Nunes: -140 Chelsea Chandler: 115

Josiane Nunes's Breakdown

Josiane Nunes is a powerful striker with a relentless, forward-pressing style. She overwhelms opponents with volume and pressure, utilizing her punching power to great effect. Nunes has shown the ability to close distance against longer fighters and unleash hooks and overhands to chip away at their defenses.

In her most recent fights, Nunes has demonstrated sharpened striking precision and improved footwork. Against Zarah Fairn, she neutralized the reach advantage through constant movement, effective range management, and explosive combinations.

However, Nunes can sometimes overcommit to strikes, potentially leaving herself open to counterattacks and takedowns. To continue her success, she may need to diversify her attack and shore up her ground game.

Chelsea Chandler's Breakdown

Chelsea Chandler is a well-rounded fighter with a respectable takedown game. She averages 0.78 takedowns per fight and attempts 2.34 takedowns per fight. Her takedown defense ratio is also impressive at 2.0.

On the striking front, Chandler lands 3.12 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 3.11 per minute. Her significant striking defense percentage is 42.7%, which could be a liability against a powerful striker like Nunes.

Analysis and Key Points

This fight likely comes down to whether Chandler can use her wrestling to neutralize Nunes's striking. Nunes has shown vulnerabilities to takedowns in the past, but Chandler will need to navigate the early striking onslaught to implement her grappling.

If the fight stays standing, Nunes's power and pressure could be too much for Chandler. Nunes lands 7.22 significant strikes per minute compared to Chandler's 3.12, and Nunes's striking impact differential is much higher at 16.0 vs 0.5 for Chandler.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction for Nunes seems driven largely by the striking data. Nunes's significant striking impact differential of 16.0 compared to Chandler's 0.5 suggests Nunes lands with much more power. Nunes also has a striking defense percentage of 50.3% vs 33.3% for Chandler, indicating Nunes is harder to hit cleanly.

The odds also favor Nunes, which the model weighs heavily. Nunes's recent win percentage of 100% compared to 33% for Chandler also boosts the prediction in Nunes's favor.

Chandler's takedown stats could pose a threat, but the model seems to weigh the striking discrepancies more heavily overall.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI correctly predicted Nunes's last fight against Fairn and Chandler's last fight against Dumont. This suggests the model has a good understanding of these fighters' strengths and weaknesses.

However, with Nunes having only one prior prediction, it's a smaller sample size to gauge the model's accuracy on her specifically. For Chandler, the model is 1-0 in predictions.

Conclusion

We predict Josiane Nunes to defeat Chelsea Chandler, likely by striking stoppage. Nunes's power punching, pressure, and striking defense give her clear edges if the fight remains standing.

For Chandler to win, she'll need to weather the early storm and use her wrestling to ground Nunes. But Nunes's takedown defense and striking advantages make her the overall favorite here.

While the model has performed well in predicting these fighters previously, the smaller sample size, especially for Nunes, adds some uncertainty. Nevertheless, the data points to a Nunes victory in this women's bantamweight clash.

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Analysis: Jafel Filho vs Ode Osbourne

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jafel Filho to Win

Score: 3 Odds: Jafel Filho: -180 Ode Osbourne: 148

Jafel Filho's Breakdown

Jafel Filho is a technical fighter who excels in the clinch with a diverse arsenal of knees and elbows. He tactically controls opponents while optimizing movement around the cage to prevent being cornered. Filho's fighting style has evolved to showcase his adaptability, though his high-effort grappling and clinching could potentially lead to cardio issues if not managed efficiently.

In his recent fight against Muhammad Mokaev, Filho effectively used lateral movement and inside leg kicks to hamper Mokaev's wrestling-heavy approach. This performance highlighted Filho's responsiveness to past fights and willingness to make adjustments. The outcome of the Mokaev fight is unclear based on the provided information, but Filho's improved cage control and circling out tactics were crucial in leveraging his clinch game and avoiding being pressured against the cage.

Ode Osbourne's Breakdown

Ode Osbourne is a dynamic striker known for his length, southpaw stance, and entertaining style in the flyweight division. His reach advantage and speed allow him to manage distance effectively and execute rapid striking combinations. However, Osbourne's risk-taking tendencies, such as throwing flying knees, can leave him open to counters if he misses.

In his recent fight against Charles Johnson, both fighters struggled to mount effective offense on the feet, though Osbourne did secure a takedown in the third round despite fatigue. The split decision outcome suggests a closely contested bout where Osbourne's grappling may have been a deciding factor.

Osbourne's loss to Tyson Nam by KO/TKO in 2022 is noteworthy, as it exposes a potential vulnerability to power punchers who can navigate his reach and unorthodox style. However, he rebounded with a KO/TKO win over Zarrukh Adashev in his next fight, demonstrating his own finishing abilities.

Analysis and Key Points

The matchup between Jafel Filho and Ode Osbourne presents an intriguing clash of styles. Filho's clinch prowess and tactical pressure will test Osbourne's striking and movement-based approach. Osbourne's reach advantage and southpaw stance could trouble Filho, but his occasional defensive lapses may provide opportunities for Filho to close the distance and impose his grappling.

Filho's strong clinch work, diverse knees and elbows, and improved cage control are key advantages. If he can manage his cardio while pressuring Osbourne, he could find success. Osbourne's length, speed, and KO power are his primary assets, and he'll need to maintain distance and land significant strikes to keep Filho at bay.

Both fighters have shown glimpses of high-level skill, but also vulnerabilities. Filho's gas tank and Osbourne's defensive liabilities are potential weaknesses that could shape the outcome.

Understanding the Prediction

The model leans towards Filho (score of 3), likely due to his clinch skills, improved tactics, and Osbourne's recent KO loss exposing a potential vulnerability. Factors like reach and striking volume narrowly favor Osbourne, but Filho's overall advantages appear stronger.

However, the model's correctness in predicting Filho can't be fully assessed due to insufficient past fight data in the UFC (prediction history for him not available). For Osbourne, the model has been inconsistent, reducing confidence in the pick.

The odds align with the model, slightly favoring Filho at -180 compared to Osbourne at +148. But given the uncertainty around previous predictions, the odds are not a strong signal to validate the model's choice.

Past Model Performance

The limited prediction history for both fighters raises questions about the model's reliability in this matchup. Without past predictions for Filho and mixed results for Osbourne (2 correct, 1 incorrect), it's challenging to derive high confidence in the model's projection. This fight could serve as an important test case to refine future predictions for these two talents.

Conclusion

In the battle between Jafel Filho's suffocating clinch game and Ode Osbourne's dynamic striking, WolfTicketsAI gives the edge to Filho. His grappling upside, combined with Osbourne's KO loss to Nam, likely swayed the model.

However, the prediction carries uncertainty due to the lack of an extensive UFC record for Filho and inconsistent model performance on Osbourne's previous fights. This bout will provide valuable data to hone the model going forward.

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Analysis: Jaqueline Amorim vs Cory McKenna

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jaqueline Amorim to Win

Score: 18 Odds: Jaqueline Amorim: 102 Cory McKenna: -120

Jaqueline Amorim's Breakdown

Jaqueline Amorim is a rising star in the UFC's strawweight division with a strong grappling base rooted in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Her ability to control opponents on the ground and secure submissions has been a key theme in her performances. In her most recent fight against Montserrat Conejo Ruiz, Amorim showcased her ground dominance, attacking with arm bars and adapting her game plan to secure a TKO victory in the 3rd round.

Amorim's striking, while still developing, has shown improvement in her takedown setups and transitions to fight-ending sequences. Her evolution as a more well-rounded fighter will be crucial as she faces higher level competition.

However, Amorim is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Sam Hughes in her previous fight. This setback may raise questions about her ability to implement her grappling against opponents who can defend takedowns and keep the fight standing.

Cory McKenna's Breakdown

Cory McKenna is a promising young fighter with a well-rounded skill set. She has shown the ability to win fights both on the feet and on the ground, with a solid striking arsenal and an aggressive grappling approach.

McKenna is riding a two-fight win streak, most recently defeating Cheyanne Vlismas by unanimous decision and submitting Miranda Granger before that. These victories showcase her continued growth and ability to adapt to different stylistic matchups.

However, McKenna did suffer a split decision loss to Elise Reed in March 2022, suggesting some potential vulnerabilities, especially against opponents who can match her pace and output.

Analysis and Key Points

This matchup pits Amorim's high-level grappling against McKenna's more balanced approach. Amorim will likely look to get the fight to the ground early and often, using her BJJ black belt skills to control position and hunt for submissions.

McKenna's path to victory involves keeping the fight standing and using her striking to maintain distance and pick apart Amorim. She'll need to showcase sharp takedown defense and get up quickly if the fight does hit the mat.

The clash of styles and the fact that both women are still relatively early in their UFC careers makes this a compelling matchup with a fairly even betting line. Amorim's grappling pedigree and finishing instincts give her a slight edge, but McKenna's more well-rounded game and recent winning performances can't be overlooked.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction favoring Amorim aligns with several key statistical factors:

Amorim has a significant edge in striking impact differential (33 vs 28.25), suggesting she lands with more power. Her advantages in significant striking output and impact differentials (24 and 23 vs 10.5 and -9.25) also point to her being the more effective striker overall.

Amorim's reach advantage (68" vs 58") could help her control range and land strikes from the outside.

While McKenna has better recent average striking output differential (68.11 vs -7.67), Amorim's superior recent significant striking impact differential (-3.37 vs -11.34) may carry more weight.

Defensively, Amorim has the edge in striking defense percentage (45.49% vs 38.98%) and significant striking defense percentage (62.86% vs 47.21%), hinting she's the harder fighter to hit cleanly.

Past Model Performance

The model has only one past prediction for Amorim, correctly picking her to defeat Ruiz. The sample size is too small to draw concrete conclusions about the model's accuracy.

For McKenna, the model has gone 2-1, but was wrong in her most recent fight, siding with Vlismas. This incorrect prediction in a closely contested bout adds some doubt to the model's current pick.

Neither fighter has enough of a track record with the model to instill strong confidence in the prediction. Bettors should be cautious and consider other factors.

Conclusion

We predict Jaqueline Amorim to emerge victorious over Cory McKenna, likely by utilizing her high-level grappling to ground McKenna and secure a submission.

However, McKenna's multi-faceted skill set and the model's mixed historical performance predicting both fighters make this a risky bet. The stylistic intrigue and potential for either woman to notch a signature win adds appeal, but I'd approach with caution from a gambling perspective.

Ultimately, this fight will test Amorim's ability to impose her grappling against an opponent determined to keep it standing. If successful, it could vault her into the division's top tier. For McKenna, it's a chance to show her continued evolution and stake her claim as a future contender at 115 lbs.