Results: UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

Fight Info:
Location: Miami, Florida, United States
Elevation: 2.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
75.0% 100.0% 90.91%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
75.0% 71.43% 72.73%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
75.0% 100.0% 90.91%
Selected Bets for Event:
ROI: 146.43%
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Sean O'Malley, Mateusz Gamrot
  • Odds: -133
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Maycee Barber, Jack Della Maddalena
  • Odds: 165
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Asu Almabayev, Petr Yan, Kyler Phillips
  • Odds: 200
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Michel Pereira, Benoit Saint Denis
  • Odds: 161
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Joanne Wood, Curtis Blaydes
  • Odds: 392

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis
SHAP Chart

Analysis: Sean O'Malley vs Marlon Vera

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Sean O'Malley to Win

Score: 18 Odds: * Sean O'Malley: -250 * Marlon Vera: 200

Sean O'Malley's Breakdown

Sean O'Malley is a flashy and dynamic striker known for his unorthodox movement, precise striking, and highlight reel knockouts. His mastery of distance management allows him to pick apart opponents from the outside with his reach advantage and waiting to attack via an open side counter. In his most recent fight against Aljamain Sterling for the bantamweight title, O'Malley showcased his elite counter-striking, catching Sterling with a perfectly timed left hand counter over the top reminiscent of Conor McGregor, knocking Sterling out cold in the 2nd round.

However, O'Malley's kryptonite has been leg kicks, as seen in his loss to Marlon Vera in their first meeting. After Vera compromised O'Malley's movement with calf kicks, he was able to swarm him with ground and pound for the TKO finish. O'Malley will need to avoid getting his legs chewed up again and maintain his reach advantage to keep Vera on the end of his punches.

O'Malley rebounded well from his lone loss though, beating top contenders like Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling in his last two fights to capture the 135-pound title. His exceptional striking and fight IQ have been on full display.

Marlon Vera's Breakdown

Marlon "Chito" Vera is a savvy veteran who has been battle-tested against the UFC's best. He's a well-rounded fighter with slick striking and a dangerous ground game. Vera holds a win over O'Malley in their first meeting, utilizing calf kicks to compromise O'Malley's movement before finishing him with ground strikes.

Since then, Vera has gone 6-2, picking up big wins over the likes of Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar, and Rob Font. His only losses came in close fights to José Aldo and Cory Sandhagen. Vera's calm under pressure and ability to make mid-fight adjustments are two of his greatest strengths. This calm can be a weakness if it leads to him never picking up the pace.

However, Vera sometimes starts slow in fights, giving up early rounds before turning it on late. He can't afford to fall behind on the scorecards against a precise and technical striker like O'Malley. Vera will need to establish his calf kicks early and mix in takedowns to keep O'Malley guessing.

Previous Fight Breakdown

In their first meeting back in 2020, Marlon Vera defeated Sean O'Malley via 1st round TKO. After the two traded heavy strikes on the feet, Vera started attacking O'Malley's lead leg with calf kicks. This visibly compromised O'Malley's movement and he started stumbling around the cage.

Vera capitalized, swarming O'Malley with punches and taking him to the ground. From there, Vera postured up and rained down heavy elbows that forced the referee to stop the fight. It was a shocking upset at the time and handed O'Malley his first professional loss.

Analysis and Key Points

The key questions in this rematch will be:

1) Can Sean O'Malley avoid having his legs chopped down by Vera's calf kicks? O'Malley has improved his defense and become a more methodical striker since their first fight. But Vera's kicks remain dangerous.

2) Will Marlon Vera be able to land a heavy blow or get the fight to the ground where he can unleash his brutal ground and pound? Vera may need to mix in takedowns to keep O'Malley from finding his striking rhythm.

3) If the fight remains standing, can Vera navigate O'Malley's reach and land his own strikes? Pressuring O'Malley and cutting off the cage will be crucial for Vera.

Ultimately, this will be highly tactical battle between two skilled strikers. But O'Malley's pinpoint accuracy, slick footwork, and five inch reach advantage should be the difference. As long as he keeps the fight standing and avoids getting his legs brutalized again, O'Malley seems primed to avenge his prior loss to Vera and defend his bantamweight title for the first time.

Understanding the Prediction

Looking at the key SHAP values driving the model's prediction provides insight:

The betting odds being in O'Malley's favor increased the model score by 11 points, suggesting the market views him as a sizable favorite.

O'Malley's significant striking impact differential is 35.6 compared to -10.1 for Vera, increasing the score by 5 more points. O'Malley lands at a much higher rate and does more damage.

O'Malley also has the edge in recent significant striking differential (41.7 vs -11.4), striking defense (69.8% vs 56.7%), and win streak, further boosting the score.

The model sees O'Malley's striking prowess as a major advantage. His precise, high-volume striking and ability to avoid damage is captured in those key metrics. Unless Vera can diminish his movement with leg kicks again, O'Malley seems well-positioned to pick him apart on the feet.

Past Model Performance

The model has had strong results predicting both fighters, but not perfect:

For Sean O'Malley, it correctly called his win over Petr Yan but incorrectly picked him to lose to Aljamain Sterling in a fight he won by KO.

With Marlon Vera, the model nailed his recent wins over Pedro Munhoz and Dominick Cruz. However, it wrongly predicted him to beat Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font in split and unanimous decision losses.

This suggests that while the model has a good handle on both fighters, they are still improving and evolving. O'Malley in particular has exceeded expectations against elite competition. The incorrect Sterling prediction is notable - if O'Malley can KO the champion as a betting underdog, he may be able to do the same to Vera here.

Conclusion

Sean O'Malley and Marlon Vera have unfinished business after Vera handed O'Malley his first loss in shocking fashion two years ago. But since then, O'Malley has evolved into a world champion while Vera has had more mixed results against top contenders.

O'Malley's sublime striking skills, impeccable distance control, and five inch reach advantage should allow him to outland Vera on the feet. The champ will still need to be wary of Vera's punishing calf kicks and opportunistic grappling. But if he maintains his cardio and composure, O'Malley seems equipped with the tools to solve the Vera puzzle this time around.

WolfTicketsAI predicts Sean O'Malley to retain his bantamweight title and avenge his prior loss to Marlon Vera. While both fighters are still improving, O'Malley's striking prowess and underrated fight IQ should be the difference in this tactical battle. Expect "The Suga Show" to deliver another sweet performance.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Dustin Poirier vs Benoit Saint Denis

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Benoit Saint Denis to Win

Score: 18 Odds: * Dustin Poirier: +157 * Benoit Saint Denis: -185

Dustin Poirier's Breakdown

Dustin Poirier is a battle-tested veteran of the UFC lightweight division known for his slick boxing, toughness, and well-rounded skill set. He holds notable victories over elite fighters like Conor McGregor, Justin Gaethje, and Max Holloway.

However, Poirier's last outing saw him suffer a devastating KO loss to Justin Gaethje. At 34 years old and with a lot of hard fights under his belt, there are questions about how much Poirier has left in the tank. Getting knocked out again here would be a major red flag.

While Poirier's striking is his calling card, particularly his crisp boxing combinations and kicks, his wrestling and grappling have come a long way. Against a grappling-heavy opponent like Saint Denis, Poirier will likely aim to keep the fight standing.

Benoit Saint Denis's Breakdown

Benoit Saint Denis is a promising French fighter with an impressive 13-1 record, with all 13 wins coming inside the distance. This highlights his dangerous finishing ability.

Saint Denis' game is built around his strong grappling. In the UFC, he's averaging an impressive 4.79 takedowns per fight with solid accuracy. His last win saw him submit Ismael Bonfim with a rear-naked choke, showcasing his submission threat. On the feet, he has a kickboxing background and throws hard kicks from the southpaw stance.

At 27, Saint Denis is still developing but has shown tremendous upside. A fight against a seasoned vet like Poirier is a significant step up, but if Saint Denis can get it to the mat, his aggressive submission game could pose real problems.

Analysis and Key Points

This fight pits Poirier's veteran savvy against Saint Denis' youthful potential. Poirier clearly has the edge in high-level experience, having fought the who's who of the lightweight division. His technical boxing and ability to seamlessly mix in kicks and takedowns make him a tough out for anyone.

However, at 34 and with a lot of wars in the rearview, it's valid to question how much Poirier has left. That KO loss to Gaethje was brutal.

Meanwhile, Saint Denis is 9 years younger and while he's not faced Poirier's level of competition, he's a live submission threat. If he can drag Poirier into a grappling-heavy fight and make things ugly, an upset is very possible.

It's also worth noting that Saint Denis will have a 1-inch reach advantage. For a boxer like Poirier who relies on commanding range, that could be pivotal if Saint Denis can make use of his kicks and southpaw jab.

Understanding the Prediction

In picking Saint Denis, the model appears to be weighing several key factors:

1) Poirier's age (34) and recent KO loss 2) Saint Denis' 1-inch reach advantage
3) Saint Denis' high volume of takedown attempts (14.11 per fight)

While their striking numbers are comparable, Saint Denis has a significant edge in wrestling, attempting over 10 more takedowns per fight than Poirier. Against an aging Poirier, this grappling-heavy approach could pay dividends.

The model also sees some risk in Poirier's negative strike absorption differentials, despite his overall strong striking stats. At this stage, damage accumulation is a real concern.

So while it's a competitive matchup, the model believes the younger, longer, wrestling-centric style of Saint Denis is a strong formula to topple a possibly declining Poirier.

Past Model Performance

The model has had some trouble predicting Poirier fights lately, going just 1 for his last 3. It seems to slightly overestimate Poirier's chances.

Conversely, the model has been dialed in on Saint Denis, correctly picking him in 3 of his last 4 fights. The lone miss was picking Bonfim over him.

So while Poirier can never be discounted given his body of work, there's good reason to trust the model's read on Saint Denis as a formidable favorite.

Conclusion

In a clash of crafty veteran vs surging prospect, the model likes Benoit Saint Denis to earn the biggest win of his career over Dustin Poirier. Saint Denis' grappling-heavy style and 1-inch reach advantage could be a potent combination against a Poirier who has looked more vulnerable in recent outings.

That said, Poirier is as battle-tested as they come. His highly technical, well-rounded game and wealth of big-fight experience means he can never be discounted. If he can stuff Saint Denis' takedowns and turn it into a boxing match, his crisp hands and veteran wiles could easily lead him to victory.

All in all, this is a fantastic bit of matchmaking between an ascending prospect and a grizzled vet. Regardless of the result, expect a thrilling firefight for as long as it lasts between these two talented 155-pounders.

SHAP Chart

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jack Della Maddalena to Win

Score: 5 Odds:
Gilbert Burns: 110 Jack Della Maddalena: -130

Gilbert Burns's Breakdown

Gilbert Burns is a formidable opponent with a well-rounded skill set. He has an impressive grappling pedigree, with high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and an aggressive style on the ground. Burns excels at pressuring opponents, looking for takedowns and submissions. On the feet, while not as technically refined as his grappling, he has power in his hands.

However, Burns has shown some vulnerabilities in recent fights. His striking defense can be exploited, as seen in his loss to Khamzat Chimaev where he was dropped multiple times. There are also questions about his cardio in longer fights.

Jack Della Maddalena's Breakdown

Jack Della Maddalena is a rising prospect with an exciting, aggressive fighting style. He has crisp, technical boxing and great pressure. Della Maddalena excels at cutting off the cage, throwing high volume, and looking for the finish.

In his UFC career so far, Della Maddalena has been very impressive, with finishes over tough opponents like Randy Brown and Danny Roberts. He's shown an ability to deal with adversity and come back strong, like in his fight with Ramazan Emeev.

Analysis and Key Points

This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup. Burns will likely look to get the fight to the ground, while Della Maddalena will want to keep it standing and utilize his boxing.

The key for Burns will be closing the distance safely and securing takedowns. He's a monster on the ground and could submit Della Maddalena if he gets his back or mount. Burns needs to be wary of Della Maddalena's striking on the way in though.

For Della Maddalena, footwork and distance management will be crucial. He needs to keep the fight at boxing range, stuff takedowns, and make Burns pay on the feet. If Della Maddalena can force Burns to strike with him, he has a great chance of getting a finish.

Overall, while Burns is dangerous everywhere, Della Maddalena's takedown defense, striking skills, and momentum give him the edge here. It will be competitive, but expect the Aussie prospect to get his hand raised.

Understanding the Prediction

The model predicts Jack Della Maddalena to win with a confidence score of 5. Some key factors:

The big gap in recent win percentage (100% vs 67%) favors Della Maddalena significantly according to the SHAP data. His perfect UFC record and momentum seem to be big factors.

Della Maddalena also has advantages in significant striking differential stats. He lands 8.87 significant strikes per minute, compared to just 3.72 for Burns recently. This gap in striking volume and efficiency is important.

The model rates Della Maddalena's peak skill level (TrueSkill) higher than Burns. While both are viewed as elite welterweights, the data sees more upside and potential in the prospect.

While factors like Burns' grappling stats are impressive, they weren't enough to outweigh Della Maddalena's advantages in striking and form in the model's assessment.

Past Model Performance

On Burns' past 4 fights, the model predicted the correct winner 3 times (vs Masvidal, Magny, Muhammad). The one it got wrong was picking Burns over Chimaev.

For Della Maddalena's last 4, the model went 2-2. It correctly predicted wins over Brown and Roberts, but incorrectly picked Holland and Emeev.

This suggests the model has a pretty good read on Burns, only missing on the Chimaev fight. With Della Maddalena, it rates him highly but has had a couple misses as he's stepped up in competition. Something to keep in mind.

Conclusion

While Burns is a world-class fighter, the model sees Della Maddalena as a stylistic nightmare for him. The Aussie's slick boxing, aggressive pace, and strong takedown defense are tailor-made to give Burns problems.

Expect a competitive fight early, with Burns having moments with his grappling. But as the fight wears on, look for Della Maddalena to take over with his striking and pressure. Don't be surprised if the prospect earns a late finish to make a statement.

Ultimately, WolfTicketsAI predicts Jack Della Maddalena defeats Gilbert Burns, consider the moneyline on Della Maddalena at -130 as a worthwhile straight play.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Petr Yan vs Song Yadong

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Petr Yan to Win

Score: 1.0 Odds: Petr Yan: -140 Song Yadong: 113

Petr Yan's Breakdown

Petr Yan is a technical powerhouse with crisp boxing, agile footwork, and strategic counter-striking abilities. His defensive acumen is top-notch, evading strikes while setting up his own counters. Despite his striking prowess, Yan's grappling and takedown defense are also strong, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place.

Yan's durability is a key asset, as he's able to absorb punishment while consistently pressuring his opponents. This was evident in his fights against Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili, where he showcased his ability to fight through adversity. However, his recent losses to Sterling and Dvalishvili have exposed potential holes in his game, particularly against high-volume strikers and strong grapplers.

Yan's striking accuracy (58.96%), significant strike defense (59.41%), and striking differential (25.83) are all impressive, indicating his ability to land effectively while minimizing damage. However, his recent win percentage (0.00) and the fact that he's coming off back-to-back losses raise questions about his current form.

Song Yadong's Breakdown

Song Yadong is an explosive striker with knockout power and impressive speed. His aggressive, forward-pressing style has earned him highlight-reel finishes and a reputation as an exciting fighter to watch. Song's durability is also noteworthy, as he's shown the ability to take hard shots and keep moving forward.

However, Song's aggressive style can sometimes work against him, as he tends to rely on his power and chin rather than employing a more diverse striking approach. This was evident in his loss to Cory Sandhagen, where Sandhagen's varied attacks and use of elbows exploited gaps in Song's defense.

Song's striking accuracy (49.61%), significant strike defense (57.25%), and striking differential (16.15) are solid but not exceptional. His recent win percentage (67%) is respectable, but his loss to Kyler Phillips and the doctor stoppage against Sandhagen suggest that he can be outworked by more technical strikers.

Analysis and Key Points

This fight pits Petr Yan's technical precision against Song Yadong's explosive power. Yan's ability to counter effectively and control range will be crucial, as he'll look to make Song pay for his aggressive entries. Meanwhile, Song will seek to pressure Yan and land his heavy strikes, testing the Russian's chin and composure.

The key for Yan will be to maintain his composure, pick his shots carefully, and mix in his grappling to keep Song guessing. If he can avoid getting drawn into a brawl and make Song miss, he should be able to outpoint him over the course of the fight.

For Song, the path to victory lies in pressuring Yan relentlessly, cutting off the cage, and landing his power shots. If he can hurt Yan early or force him into a firefight, he could score a knockout or accumulate enough damage to sway the judges.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction of a Yan victory seems to be based largely on the betting odds (-140 for Yan), which significantly increased the prediction score. Yan's striking impact differential (25.83) and significant striking impact differential (13.00) also favor him, suggesting that he lands more impactful strikes than Song (16.15 and 8.38, respectively).

However, Song's recent win percentage (67%) is notably higher than Yan's (0%), and his recent significant striking impact differential (9.18) is not far behind Yan's career mark (13.00). This suggests that the model may be overvaluing Yan's historical advantages while underestimating Song's recent improvements and momentum.

Past Model Performance

The model has had mixed success in predicting these fighters' past bouts. While it correctly favored Dvalishvili over Yan, it also incorrectly picked Yan to beat O'Malley and Sterling. Similarly, while it accurately predicted Song's wins over Moraes and Gutierrez and his loss to Sandhagen, it missed on his upset of Simon.

This inconsistency suggests that both fighters are somewhat difficult to predict, likely due to Yan's recent slip in form and Song's ability to defy expectations with his power and finishing instinct. As such, the model's high confidence in a Yan victory should be taken with a grain of salt.

Conclusion

While Petr Yan deserves to be favored based on his technical prowess and overall body of work, Song Yadong's explosive striking and recent momentum make him a live underdog. The model's prediction of a Yan victory is understandable but far from certain, given the potential for Song to land a fight-changing shot or simply outwork Yan with his aggression.

Ultimately, this fight will likely come down to which fighter can impose their style and game plan more effectively. If Yan can keep his composure, counter effectively, and mix in his grappling, he should be able to outpoint Song and get back in the win column. But if Song can pressure Yan, land his power shots, and avoid getting tied up in grappling exchanges, he could score the upset and announce himself as a true contender at 135 pounds.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Curtis Blaydes vs Jailton Almeida

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Curtis Blaydes to Win

Score: 2 Odds: Curtis Blaydes: -115 Jailton Almeida: -105

Curtis Blaydes's Breakdown

Curtis Blaydes is a formidable heavyweight contender known for his wrestling prowess and ground control. His ability to secure takedowns and dominate opponents on the mat has been a consistent theme throughout his UFC career. However, his recent loss to Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO in Round 1 raises concerns about his striking defense, particularly against heavy-handed opponents.

Despite this setback, Blaydes' wrestling remains a significant threat. In his wins over Alexander Volkov and Shamil Abdurakhimov, he demonstrated his ability to grind out victories through relentless takedowns and suffocating top control. His ground-and-pound is also a potent weapon, as seen in his TKO win over Chris Daukaus.

Blaydes' striking has shown improvement over time, with notable wins over Junior Dos Santos and Alistair Overeem. However, his tendency to rely on his wrestling can make him predictable, and his striking defense remains a vulnerability, as evidenced by his KO losses to Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis.

Jailton Almeida's Breakdown

Jailton Almeida is a rising star in the heavyweight division, known for his well-rounded skill set and impressive submission game. His recent wins over Derrick Lewis, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Shamil Abdurakhimov showcase his ability to finish fights both on the feet and on the ground.

Almeida's grappling is his greatest strength, with a diverse arsenal of takedowns and submission techniques. He often uses his striking to set up takedowns, as seen in his fight against Danilo Marques, where he landed a high kick before transitioning to a double-leg takedown. Once on the ground, Almeida's control is suffocating, and he excels at advancing to dominant positions to secure submissions or TKOs.

While Almeida's striking is not his primary weapon, he has shown improvements in his recent fights. His ability to blend striking with grappling makes him a difficult opponent to prepare for, as he can quickly change the course of a fight with a well-timed takedown or submission attempt.

Analysis and Key Points

The matchup between Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida presents an intriguing clash of styles. Blaydes' wrestling-heavy approach will be tested against Almeida's well-rounded game and dangerous submission skills.

Blaydes will likely look to use his wrestling to control the fight and keep Almeida on his back. His ability to secure takedowns and maintain top control could be the key to victory. However, Almeida's grappling prowess and ability to threaten with submissions from various positions make him a dangerous opponent, even off his back.

On the feet, Almeida may have the advantage, particularly if he can keep the fight standing and use his striking to set up takedowns. Blaydes' striking defense has been a vulnerability in the past, and Almeida's improving stand-up game could pose problems.

Understanding the Prediction

According to the SHAP data, several factors favor Curtis Blaydes in this matchup:

  • Blaydes' striking defense percentage (0.4651) and significant striking defense percentage (0.5965) are higher than Almeida's (0.3678 and 0.4884, respectively), suggesting Blaydes may be better equipped to defend against Almeida's strikes.

  • Blaydes' TrueSkill rating (36.77) is slightly lower than Almeida's (38.39), but the difference is not significant enough to offset other advantages.

  • Blaydes' recent striking impact differential (33.83) and significant striking impact differential (19.01) are higher than Almeida's (43.51 and 26.06, respectively), indicating Blaydes' strikes may have more impact.

However, some factors favor Almeida:

  • Almeida's recent submission attempt rate (2.66 per fight) is much higher than Blaydes' (0.00), highlighting Almeida's dangerous submission game.

  • Almeida's recent takedown accuracy (0.7392) is higher than Blaydes' (0.5913), suggesting Almeida may be more efficient with his takedown attempts.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record in predicting Curtis Blaydes' fights, correctly picking him to win against Chris Daukaus but incorrectly predicting him to lose against Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall.

For Jailton Almeida, the model has been accurate, correctly predicting his wins over Derrick Lewis, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Parker Porter.

The model's past performance suggests a degree of uncertainty in predicting Blaydes' fights, while it has been more reliable in forecasting Almeida's outcomes.

Conclusion

The fight between Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida is a compelling matchup between two skilled heavyweights with contrasting styles. Blaydes' wrestling and ground control will be pitted against Almeida's well-rounded game and submission prowess.

While the model predicts Blaydes to win, the confidence score of 2 indicates a close fight. Almeida's improving striking and dangerous grappling make him a live underdog, and his ability to threaten with submissions could be a game-changer.

Ultimately, the outcome may hinge on whether Blaydes can effectively use his wrestling to control the fight or if Almeida can keep the fight standing and capitalize on his striking and submission skills. Regardless of the result, this promises to be an exciting battle between two of the heavyweight division's most talented contenders.

SHAP Chart

## Analysis: Katlyn Cerminara vs Maycee Barber

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Maycee Barber to Win

Score: 20 Odds: Katlyn Cerminara: 165 Maycee Barber: -200

Katlyn Cerminara's Breakdown

Katlyn "Blonde Fighter" Chookagian is a seasoned veteran in the UFC's flyweight division. Her technical striking and impressive cardio allow her to maintain a high pace throughout her fights. With a karate and Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, Chookagian prefers to keep the fight standing where she uses her diverse kicks and jabs to control range and score points.

However, her most recent fight against Manon Fiorot exposed some vulnerabilities. Fiorot was able to close the distance and land power shots, ultimately handing Chookagian a unanimous decision loss. This suggests that aggressive strikers who can navigate Chookagian's range can find success against her.

Despite this setback, Chookagian's experience and well-rounded skillset make her a tough out for anyone in the division. She's shown the ability to bounce back from losses and make adjustments in her game.

Maycee Barber's Breakdown

Maycee "The Future" Barber is an exciting prospect with finishing power and a well-rounded skillset. At just 25 years old, she's already 6-2 in the UFC with notable wins over veterans like Jessica Eye and Gillian Robertson.

Barber's strengths lie in her aggressive striking and ability to chain together punches and kicks. She throws with bad intentions and has the power to end fights. However, this aggression has also been a double-edged sword at times. In her loss to Alexa Grasso, Barber's eagerness to engage left her open to counters.

Since that loss, we've seen improvements in Barber's game. She's working on her defensive movement and mixing in more takedowns to keep opponents guessing. Her most recent wins over Andrea Lee and Montana De La Rosa showcased a more patient approach.

Analysis and Key Points

This is a classic matchup of an experienced technical striker in Chookagian against a young, powerful finisher in Barber. The key for Chookagian will be using her footwork and jab to keep Barber at range and frustrate her. She'll want to avoid getting backed up against the cage where Barber can unload combinations.

For Barber, the gameplan is to pressure Chookagian and look for opportunities to close distance. She'll have a speed advantage and will want to capitalize with flurries when she gets inside. Mixing in takedowns could also be effective in wearing Chookagian down.

I expect this to be a high-paced, technical battle. Chookagian's experience gives her the edge if she can keep it at range, but Barber's power makes her dangerous at any moment. Don't blink during the exchanges.

Understanding the Prediction

The WolfTickets model is favoring Barber here by a decent margin, likely based on a few key factors:

  1. Striking output: While Chookagian lands slightly more significant strikes per minute (4.59 vs 4.20), Barber actually leads in total strike differential (5.00 vs -20.13) and impact differential (0.30 vs -4.94). This suggests Barber is the more effective overall striker.

  2. Grappling: Barber has a significant edge in takedowns per fight (1.03 vs 0.27) and takedown accuracy (34.8% vs 15.4%). She's more likely to be able to mix in wrestling to keep Chookagian off balance.

  3. Quality of recent opposition: Barber's wins over Eye, Robertson, and De La Rosa compare favorably to Chookagian's recent fights. The loss to Fiorot may have revealed some vulnerabilities in Chookagian's game that Barber can capitalize on.

  4. Age and upside: At 25, Barber is still improving rapidly while the 35-year-old Chookagian may be at her peak. The model likely favors the younger fighter's upside.

However, Chookagian's advantages in striking defense (57.4% vs 44.0%) and greater experience could be the equalizer here. She's been in with the best and has more tools to adapt over 5 rounds.

Past Model Performance

Over their last 5 fights, WolfTickets has been slightly better at predicting Barber's fights (4-1) compared to Chookagian (2-3). This further supports the edge to Barber.

However, it's worth noting the model's recent stumble in the Barber-Lee fight. At these odds, Chookagian might actually be a slight value play as the underdog given her experience. An off night for Barber or sharp gameplan from Chookagian could certainly lead to an upset.

Conclusion

The model's lean towards Barber is solid, but expect a competitive, technical fight. Barber's youth, power and pressure will make her dangerous, especially early. But Chookagian's savvy and rangy striking give her a clear path to victory if she can weather the early storm.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Mateusz Gamrot vs Rafael Dos Anjos

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mateusz Gamrot to Win

Score: 24 Odds: Mateusz Gamrot: -400 Rafael Dos Anjos: +300

Mateusz Gamrot's Breakdown

Mateusz Gamrot is a rising star in the UFC's lightweight division, bringing a well-rounded skill set honed over years of competition. A former two-division KSW champion, Gamrot has showcased his ability to seamlessly blend striking and grappling, making him a challenging puzzle for most opponents.

Gamrot's strengths lie in his exceptional cardio, allowing him to maintain a high pace throughout the fight. His wrestling is top-notch, with an impressive ability to chain takedowns together. On the feet, he's constantly evolving, incorporating techniques like stance switching and a diverse array of kicks to complement his boxing.

However, Gamrot isn't without weaknesses. His heavy reliance on wrestling can be a double-edged sword, as seen in his fight with Guram Kutateladze where his predictability led to counters. Additionally, his striking defense has room for improvement.

In recent fights, Gamrot has shown growth, particularly in his striking. Against Diego Ferreira, he showcased crisp combinations and fight-ending power. His submission win over Jeremy Stephens also highlighted his dangerous grappling.

Rafael Dos Anjos's Breakdown

Rafael Dos Anjos is a seasoned veteran and former UFC lightweight champion known for his well-rounded game. His Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and sharp Muay Thai make him a threat wherever the fight goes.

RDA's strengths lie in his pressure and pace. He's known for wearing opponents down with volume striking and a grinding grappling game. His cardio and durability are also notable, allowing him to push a high pace for five rounds.

However, Dos Anjos has struggled against strong wrestlers who can negate his grappling. His move to welterweight highlighted some limitations in his game, particularly when outmatched physically.

In recent fights, RDA has shown adaptability, bouncing between welterweight and lightweight. His wins over Paul Felder and Renato Moicano showcased his ability to implement his game against tough opponents.

Analysis and Key Points

This fight presents a classic clash of styles. Gamrot will likely look to use his wrestling to ground RDA, while Dos Anjos will aim to keep the fight standing and outwork Gamrot with his volume.

Key factors will be Gamrot's ability to secure takedowns and RDA's takedown defense. If Gamrot can consistently bring the fight to the mat, he could replicate the success of wrestlers like Khabib Nurmagomedov and Michael Chiesa against RDA.

However, if RDA can stuff the takedowns and keep the fight standing, his experience and striking volume could be the difference. He'll look to pressure Gamrot, work the body, and mix in his own takedowns.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction of a Gamrot win seems to be largely based on the odds (-400 for Gamrot), Gamrot's superior recent takedown attempts per fight (15.89 vs 5.22 for RDA), and his higher recent win percentage (67% vs 33%).

Gamrot's striking defense percentage (63%) and significant striking defense percentage (66.88%) are also notably higher than RDA's (48.9% and 56.2% respectively), suggesting Gamrot may have the edge in striking exchanges.

However, it's worth noting that RDA has a significant edge in experience with over double the number of UFC fights. His ability to adapt mid-fight could be a key factor.

Past Model Performance

The model has been more accurate in predicting Gamrot's recent fights, correctly calling his wins over Jalin Turner and Rafael Fiziev. However, its incorrect predictions in Gamrot's fights with Tsarukyan and Dariush suggest some uncertainty.

For RDA, the model has been largely accurate, correctly predicting his recent results. However, his low recent win percentage (33%) does raise some red flags.

Conclusion

While the model favors Gamrot, largely due to his wrestling and recent form, RDA's experience and well-rounded game make him a live underdog. If he can keep the fight standing and work his striking, he has a path to victory.

However, Gamrot's wrestling and improving striking make him a formidable opponent. If he can implement his grappling game, he has a good chance of securing a win.

Ultimately, this fight will likely come down to who can impose their game plan. Gamrot's youth and momentum make him a slight favorite, but counting out a veteran like RDA would be a mistake. Expect a closely contested battle that could go either way.

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Analysis: Pedro Munhoz vs Kyler Phillips

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Kyler Phillips to Win

Score: 26 Odds: Pedro Munhoz: +180 Kyler Phillips: -218

Pedro Munhoz's Breakdown

Pedro Munhoz is a durable, aggressive fighter with a high-volume striking style. His leg kicks are particularly damaging and he uses them effectively to slow opponents down and set up boxing combinations. As a black belt in BJJ, he is also a submission threat, especially with his guillotine choke.

However, Munhoz's aggressive style can leave openings for counters. He relies heavily on his toughness and chin, which while impressive, is a risky approach. His last few fights have been a mixed bag, with losses to top contenders but also a solid win over Chris Gutierrez.

Kyler Phillips's Breakdown

Kyler Phillips is a dynamic, well-rounded fighter with slick striking and solid wrestling. He keeps a high pace, has good cardio, and throws a diverse array of techniques including spinning attacks. His last loss to Raulian Paiva showed some potential holes in his defensive grappling, but he bounced back with an impressive submission win over Marcelo Rojo.

Analysis and Key Points

This is a battle of two skilled, experienced bantamweights. Munhoz will likely look to pressure forward and land his thudding leg kicks and hooks. Phillips will want to use his footwork and diverse striking to pick Munhoz apart at range and mix in takedowns.

The key for Munhoz is making this a brawl and dragging Phillips into his kind of scrap. For Phillips, avoiding the heavy artillery of Munhoz and keeping him guessing with variety will be crucial.

Phillips' 7-inch reach advantage could be a major factor in letting him potshot Munhoz on the outside. Munhoz has to find a way inside that reach.

Both are durable and have good cardio so this could come down to who can maintain a higher pace for all 3 rounds. The grappling could also be important - Phillips may look to wear on Munhoz with wrestling.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction for Phillips aligns with several key data points:

  • Phillips' high strike differential numbers (+30.67 average, +32.83 significant) suggest he is consistently outpacing opponents in volume.

  • Phillips' strong takedown numbers (2.90 per fight, 46% accuracy) show versatile paths to victory. The SHAP data indicates Phillips' reach advantage is a major factor favoring him.

  • In contrast, Munhoz's strike differential stats are negative (-14.40 average, -17.55 significant) indicating he gets outlanded.

-The odds also heavily lean towards Phillips, which is weighing the prediction in his direction per the SHAP data.

So in totality, the numbers paint the picture of a young, long, high-volume striker in Phillips against an aggressive but hittable brawler in Munhoz. This aligns with the model's pick.

Past Model Performance

The model has been much more reliable on Phillips than Munhoz.

It is 2-for-2 in predicting Phillips' last couple fights, picking him correctly against both Barcelos and Rojo. The Barcelos fight in particular was an impressive showing.

Conversely, the model is just 1-for-2 on recent Munhoz fights, missing the mark on him against Gutierrez but correctly picking Vera.

When you couple Phillips' strong recent performances with the model's success in forecasting his fights, it lends added confidence to the prediction here, despite Munhoz's danger.

Conclusion

Phillips' athletic advantages, longer reach, higher output, and more varied attack give him more ways to win the fight. He can outstrike Munhoz at range and mix in takedowns if needed.

Get ready for a, back-and-forth battle. Munhoz is as durable as they come and will march forward throwing heat for as long as the fight lasts. His legendary calf kicks and ability to just absorb damage make him a threat to phillips.

Ultimately though, Phillips' more dynamic offense, strong cardio, and slight technical edges in both striking and wrestling will carry him to a hard-fought decision victory, or possibly a late stoppage.

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Analysis: Michel Pereira vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Michel Pereira to Win

Score: 3 Odds: Michel Pereira: -150 Michal Oleksiejczuk: 125

Michel Pereira's Breakdown

Michel Pereira is a dynamic and unorthodox fighter known for his acrobatic and flashy striking style. He incorporates a wide array of techniques like flying knees, spinning attacks, and even backflips into his game. While this approach can be unpredictable and catch opponents off guard, it has also led to Pereira gassing out in some fights.

However, Pereira has shown improvements in pacing himself in recent outings. His last 5 fights have all been wins, with 3 finishes. Notably, he scored a first round TKO over the highly touted Andre Petroski in his last fight, utilizing his explosive striking to close the show early.

Pereira's striking stats are impressive, landing 5.09 significant strikes per minute at 53.85% accuracy. He also has good takedown defense at 94.12%. A key strength is his striking impact differential of +15.89.

Michal Oleksiejczuk's Breakdown

Michal Oleksiejczuk is a powerful light heavyweight now competing at middleweight. He has heavy hands, with 5 of his 7 UFC wins coming by KO/TKO. His recent performances have been impressive, with first round stoppages over Cody Brundage and Sam Alvey.

Oleksiejczuk has good striking output, landing 5.45 significant strikes per minute in his last few fights. He's also hard to take down, with 86.81% takedown defense in that span. His +9.79 striking impact differential points to his stopping power.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up to be an explosive matchup between two powerful strikers. Pereira's unorthodox attack will collide with Oleksiejczuk's more straightforward power punching. The key factors:

  • Pereira's striking impact differential is significantly higher at +15.89 vs +6.64 for Oleksiejczuk
  • Pereira has the better takedown defense and is unlikely to be wrestled
  • Pereira's reach advantage could help him implement his rangy striking
  • Oleksiejczuk's recent submission loss raises questions about his grappling

Both men have fight-changing power, so this could come down to who lands first. But Pereira's diverse attack and proven track record against strong competition give him the edge.

Understanding the Prediction

The model favors Pereira reasonably strongly with a score of 3. The key factors driving this:

  • Pereira's massive striking impact differential of +15.89 compared to +6.64 for Oleksiejczuk (increased score)
  • Pereira's significant striking output differential of +5.89 vs -7.87 for Oleksiejczuk (increased score)
  • Pereira's win streak (increased score)
  • Pereira's betting odds of -150 (increased score)
  • Oleksiejczuk's recent striking defense of 69.52% compared to Pereira's offense (decreased score)
  • Oleksiejczuk's overall striking defense of just 62% (decreased score)

So in summary, the model sees Pereira's high-impact striking volume and win streak as the key advantages over Oleksiejczuk's power punching and defensive stats.

Past Model Performance

The model has had mixed results predicting these two fighters:

  • 2 correct and 1 incorrect prediction for Pereira
  • 3 correct and 2 incorrect predictions for Oleksiejczuk

Notably, it was wrong in picking against Oleksiejczuk's upset KO of Chidi Njokuani. But it was right in favoring Pereira over Andre Petroski.

Overall, the model's past performance suggests a reasonable but not overwhelming degree of confidence in the Pereira prediction. There is still a solid chance of an Oleksiejczuk upset KO.

Conclusion

Michel Pereira defeats Michal Oleksiejczuk by utilizing his dynamic striking attack and career-best form. Pereira's unorthodox style, long reach, and impressive striking impact stats should carry him to victory if he can avoid Oleksiejczuk's heavy hands.

While an Oleksiejczuk KO is very much a possibility, Pereira's proven track record and tricky style make him a justified favorite. This one could steal the show, but the oddsmakers have it right with Pereira as a -150 favorite.

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Analysis: CJ Vergara vs Assu Almabayev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Assu Almabayev to Win

Score: 27 Odds: CJ Vergara: +340 Assu Almabayev: -500

CJ Vergara's Breakdown

CJ Vergara is an aggressive striker who has shown improvements in his fight IQ and overall MMA game over his UFC career. He has a dynamic striking arsenal, mixing in punches and kicks effectively. In his most recent win against Vinicius Salvador, Vergara likely utilized low kicks and boxing combinations to disrupt Salvador's mobility and control the fight. This mirrors a similar approach to what Justin Gaethje used against Dustin Poirier with low kicks.

However, Vergara does have some defensive liabilities, especially when overcommitting to his powerful strikes. He was submitted by armbar in his loss to Tatsuro Taira, showing a potential vulnerability on the ground against high-level grapplers.

Assu Almabayev's Breakdown

Assu Almabayev is a submission specialist, earning all his UFC wins so far by rear naked choke. In his debut against Ode Osbourne, Almabayev showcased his grappling prowess, taking Osbourne down and methodically advancing position before sinking in the choke in the 2nd round.

On the feet, Almabayev has a solid kicking game and overhand right he looks for. But his real strength is in grappling exchanges, where he is relentless in pursuit of the takedown and has excellent back-taking ability.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as a classic striker vs grappler match-up. Vergara will look to keep it standing and outland Almabayev with his diverse striking. Almabayev conversely needs to get it to the mat where he can employ his high-level submission game.

The key for Vergara will be stuffing takedowns and making Almabayev pay with counters. He cannot afford to be put on his back given Almabayev's grappling.

For Almabayev, closing the distance safely to get to his takedowns will be critical. He was able to do this against a dangerous striker in Osbourne which bodes well. If he can take Vergara's back, the threat of the rear naked choke will be ever-present.

Understanding the Prediction

The model is picking Almabayev here with decent confidence, largely due to the big edge he has in the betting odds. At -500, Almabayev is a massive favorite, indicating that bettors and odds makers view his grappling as a serious problem for Vergara.

Other factors boosting Almabayev in the model are his higher recent takedown attempt rate (9.17 per fight vs 0 for Vergara) and his 90% UFC win rate compared to 67% for Vergara.

Vergara's advantages in striking metrics like significant striking differential are outweighed by Almabayev's grappling and win rate stats in the model's evaluation.

Past Model Performance

The model is 1-1 in predicting Vergara's fights, getting his last win correct but incorrectly picking against him vs Daniel Lacerda.

For Almabayev, the model is 1-0 but with only one fight to go off of. His dominant win over Osbourne was scored correctly.

The limited data, especially on Almabayev's side, adds some uncertainty to the pick. But the model's correct prediction in his debut, along with his impressive performance, provides some confidence.

Conclusion

Assu Almabayev is favored to defeat CJ Vergara by WolfTicketsAI, with his high-level grappling and submission skills being the key factors. Almabayev's strong betting odds and takedown metrics boost him significantly in the model's assessment.

However, Vergara's striking and recent improvements make him a live underdog. If he can deny the takedowns and land his powerful shots, he has a path to victory.

With limited prediction data on both fighters, this pick comes with a solid degree of uncertainty. But based on fighting styles and the model's read of the matchup, Almabayev is the justified favorite. His submission over Osbourne shows his grappling can be a serious equalizer against dangerous strikers.

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Analysis: Joanne Wood vs Maryna Moroz

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joanne Wood to Win

Score: 14 Odds: Joanne Wood: +163 Maryna Moroz: -195

Joanne Wood's Breakdown

Joanne Wood enters this bout with a rich tapestry of UFC experience, showcasing a dynamic striking game rooted in her Muay Thai background. Despite recent challenges, including losses to Alexa Grasso and Taila Santos, Wood's striking and clinch work remain formidable. Her win ratio of 0.33 in the last five fights, while indicating a period of inconsistency, still highlights her threat in the octagon, especially through her methodical use of leg kicks and strength in clinch situations.

Maryna Moroz's Breakdown

Maryna Moroz, the "Iron Lady," showcases resilience and an adaptable fight game. Despite a recent submission loss to Karine Silva, Moroz's comprehensive strategy and volume striking have led to significant victories. Like Wood, Moroz has a win ratio of 0.33 in her last five fights, reflecting a similar trajectory of fluctuating success in the octagon.

Previous Fight Breakdown

Maryna Moroz previously defeated Joanne Wood by submission, which could provide Moroz with a psychological advantage and strategic insights for their rematch.

Analysis and Key Points

This match features Joanne Wood's striking and clinch proficiency against Maryna Moroz's volume striking and improved grappling. The central question is whether Wood can leverage her Muay Thai to manage distance and pace, or if Moroz will utilize her stamina and versatile attack to apply pressure.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI bases its prediction on key metrics such as the "Significant Striking Impact Differential," favoring Joanne Wood due to her superior ability to land impactful strikes compared to Moroz. Wood's advantageous odds and TrueSkill metrics further support the prediction, suggesting her striking precision and defensive tactics might counterbalance Moroz's aggressive style.

Past Model Performance

The prediction model has shown reliability in anticipating outcomes for Wood, based on her fight dynamics, though its effectiveness varies with Moroz, indicating the unpredictable nature of her matches.

Conclusion

Joanne Wood’s expertise in striking and distance management positions her to potentially outperform Maryna Moroz in their upcoming rematch, despite Moroz's prior victory. With the support of detailed statistical analysis and the model's historical accuracy, Wood is anticipated to make tactical adjustments and claim victory in this eagerly awaited contest.