Results: UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev

Fight Info:
Location: Enterprise, Nevada, United States
Elevation: 778.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
80.0% 50.0% 71.43%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
60.0% 50.0% 57.14%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
80.0% 50.0% 71.43%
Selected Bets for Event:
ROI: -22.17%
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Christian Leroy Duncan, Shamil Gaziev, Eryk Anders
  • Odds: 162
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Muhammad Mokaev, Eryk Anders, Steve Erceg
  • Odds: 111
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Shamil Gaziev, Vitor Petrino, Muhammad Mokaev
  • Odds: 183
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Christian Leroy Duncan, Vitor Petrino
  • Odds: -129
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Javid Basharat, Steve Erceg
  • Odds: -202

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis
SHAP Chart

Analysis: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Shamil Gaziev to Win

Score: 16 Odds: Jairzinho Rozenstruik: +135 Shamil Gaziev: -165

Jairzinho Rozenstruik's Breakdown

Rozenstruik, a formidable heavyweight with a penchant for KOs, has had his ups and downs in the UFC. A notorious heavy-hitter, Jairzinho's striking prowess places him among the elite; however, his recent performances suggest vulnerability, particularly against technically sound ground fighters, as seen in his submission loss to Jailton Almeida. Despite showcasing his power against Chris Daukaus, his losses to Volkov and Gane underline a difficulty in handling fighters who excel in volume or wrestling. His UFC tenure, characterized by a mix of spectacular KOs and some notable defeats, underscores a striking-based game plan with evident gaps in grappling and defense against high-output strikers.

Shamil Gaziev's Breakdown

Gaziev enters the UFC with an unblemished record, demonstrating a diverse striking skill set and an impressive ability to maintain pressure, as exemplified in his debut against Martin Buday. Despite limited data, Gaziev's singular UFC appearance showcased his efficient striking, head strikes landed per minute, and an aggressive approach that could overwhelm opponents unable to match his output or withstand his power. His high striking accuracy and defense illustrate a potential for dominance in stand-up exchanges.

Analysis and Key Points

The fight presents a classic clash of power versus technique. Rozenstruik's KO ability is well-documented, with significant KO wins highlighting his career. Conversely, Gaziev's all-around striking and high output present a different challenge. The key for Rozenstruik lies in leveraging his power and seizing opportunities for a finisher's blow. Gaziev, on the other hand, should focus on outstriking Rozenstruik with volume, exploiting the defensive lapses in Rozenstruik's game. The fight's dynamics hint at a battle won through strategic striking rather than pure power.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data underlines features favoring Gaziev, particularly in 'significant_striking_impact_differential', suggesting his striking efficiency could be pivotal. Rozenstruik's 'odds' and historical striking defense weaknesses ('striking_defense_percentage') hint at vulnerabilities Gaziev is well-equipped to exploit. Furthermore, Gaziev's recent performance and undoubted striking acumen ('recent_average_striking_output_differential') align with the prediction towards his victory.

Past Model Performance

Rozenstruik's past results show alignment with WolfTicketsAI's predictions, reflecting a measure of reliability in assessing his bouts. However, without past predictions for Gaziev, caution is advised due to less predictive data, marking a potential risk in the model's confidence level for Gaziev's victory.

Conclusion

The fight analysis suggests Shamil Gaziev's victory, predicated on his superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive capabilities. While Rozenstruik possesses the power to end the fight dramatically, Gaziev's ability to control the pace and space could see him dictating the fight's flow. Assuming Gaziev can avoid Rozenstruik's power shots, his debut performance trends indicate a fighter capable of navigating the heavyweight division's dangers, potentially outstriking Rozenstruik in a display of tactical and strategic superiority.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Vitor Petrino vs Tyson Pedro

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Vitor Petrino to Win

Score: 16 Odds: Vitor Petrino: -300 Tyson Pedro: 240

Vitor Petrino's Breakdown

Vitor Petrino enters this light heavyweight clash undefeated in the Octagon, with a record that speaks to his finishing ability and diverse skill set. With notable victories over Modestas Bukauskas and Marcin Prachnio, Petrino has demonstrated both striking prowess and submission skills. The model has historically been accurate in predicting Petrino's victories, signaling reliability in its assessment.

Tyson Pedro's Breakdown

Tyson Pedro, known for his dynamic striking and submission game, presents a formidable challenge. Despite losses to seasoned competitors like Mauricio Rua and Ovince Saint Preux, Pedro's recent performances, including a swift KO/TKO victory over Anton Turkalj, showcase his lethal power and improved game. The model's prediction accuracy for Pedro suggests a decent track record, though it's worth noting it overestimated his chances against Modestas Bukauskas.

Analysis and Key Points

The match-up is characterized by Petrino's aggressive, forward-pressing striking, versus Pedro's dynamic, counter-striking and submission threat. Petrino's recent fights indicate a significant advantage in takedowns and a slightly higher activity rate in striking, which could be pivotal in this bout. Pedro's reach and striking defense present opportunities to counter, but Petrino's relentless pace and grappling acumen may neutralize these advantages.

Understanding the Prediction

  • The model's preference for Petrino can be attributed to his "Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight" and "Recent Win Percentage," showcasing his active engagement and momentum.
  • Petrino's "Striking Defense Percentage" is less profound, favoring Pedro slightly, suggesting Pedro's strikes could pose threats if Petrino's defense isn't tight.
  • Crucially, Petrino's "Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential" and "Recent Striking Impact Differential" suggest he maintains effectiveness and damage across recent bouts, aligning with the model's favoritism.

Past Model Performance

The model correctly predicted Petrino's victories with high confidence, reflecting its attunement to Petrino's fighting style and performances. Similarly, it has been mostly accurate for Pedro, with a notable miss in the Bukauskas fight that could signal caution for overestimating his chances against technical strikers.

Conclusion

Given Vitor Petrino's undefeated streak, striking volume, and takedown effectiveness, he's predicted to win against Tyson Pedro. While Pedro's striking and reach are serious considerations, Petrino's recent performances suggest a strategic advantage. Betting on Petrino aligns with the model's analysis, although the dynamics of MMA always leave room for surprises.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Alex Perez vs Muhammad Mokaev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Muhammad Mokaev to Win

Score: 21 Odds: Alex Perez: +250 Muhammad Mokaev: -310

Alex Perez's Breakdown

Alex Perez showcases a mixed bag of aggressive striking combined with a solid wrestling base. He has leveraged his low kicks effectively in fights, showcasing his adaptability in integrating striking with groundwork. However, his susceptibility to submissions, as seen in losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo, poses questions about his defensive grappling under pressure. Perez's performance metrics highlight a robust striking output, with an emphasis on significant strikes and a decent takedown game. Yet, a concerning recent win percentage of 0.33 indicates a phase of struggle against top-tier opponents in the Flyweight division.

Muhammad Mokaev's Breakdown

Muhammad Mokaev, undefeated in his professional career, is a dominant grappling force with an impeccable submission record. His ability to control fights with his wrestling and ground game, combined with rapid improvements in his striking, illustrate a fighter on the rise. Noteworthy is Mokaev's adaptability and control in matches, dictating the pace and often overwhelming opponents with pressure, as demonstrated in his performances against Tim Elliott and Malcolm Gordon. Mokaev's statistics reveal a heavy emphasis on takedowns and control, setting the stage for his submission victories. His complete MMA skill set, complemented by an unwavering win streak, positions him as a formidable competitor in the Flyweight division.

Analysis and Key Points

  1. Striking and Takedown Dichotomy: Perez's striking, highlighted by powerful low kicks, contrasts with Mokaev's preference for grappling and chain submissions.
  2. Defensive Gaps: Perez's vulnerability to submissions could be exploited by Mokaev, whose grappling acumen could find a way through Perez's defenses.
  3. Pressure and Pace: Mokaev's relentless pressure and control could negate Perez's striking, forcing the fight to the ground where Mokaev has shown superiority.
  4. Statistical Indicators: Perez's recent struggles within the cage, indicated by a win rate of only 0.33 in his last few fights, against Mokaev's flawless record and submission prowess, underscore the prediction in Mokaev's favor.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds and Recent Win Percentage signified a challenge for Perez against Mokaev's winning momentum.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight and Striking Defense Percentage suggest Mokaev's grappling and defensive skills could be key factors against Perez's striking-led offense.
  • TrueSkill metrics favor Mokaev, highlighting a statistical edge in this matchup.

Past Model Performance

The model has accurately predicted outcomes for both fighters in their recent fights, enhancing confidence in its ability to forecast this match accurately. Mokaev's recent track record in the model's predictions, coupled with Perez's correct loss prediction, underscores a reliable assessment capability.

Conclusion

The analysis distinctly favors Muhammad Mokaev to secure a victory against Alex Perez. Mokaev's grappling excellence, combined with an unblemished record and evolving striking game, positions him as the fighter with the strategic and statistical advantage. Although Perez presents a formidable challenge with his striking and wrestling foundation, Mokaev's superior control, submission threat, and defensive tactics are predicted to dictate the fight's outcome. The culmination of these factors, backed by solid model predictions and statistical assessments, underpins WolfTicketsAI's confidence in Mokaev as the victor in this encounter.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Eryk Anders vs Jamie Pickett

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Eryk Anders to Win

Score: 26 Odds: Eryk Anders: -450 Jamie Pickett: +350

Eryk Anders's Breakdown

Eryk Anders comes into the bout with a mixed bag of recent performances, indicating a fighter still capable of surprises but also showing vulnerabilities. His loss to Marc-Andre Barriault by unanimous decision highlighted issues with maintaining momentum against a persistent striker and pressure fighter. Yet, his victory over Kyle Daukaus by TKO showcases Anders' power and ability to capitalize on openings. His fighting style leans towards striking with a penchant for engaging in exchanges where he can leverage his power, as seen in his fight against Daukaus. However, his loss to JunYong Park by split decision and submission loss to Andre Muniz highlight a need for improved grappling defense and fight IQ to avoid being outmaneuvered on the ground or caught in submissions. Notably, Anders' move to light heavyweight against Darren Stewart and subsequent return to middleweight should be watched closely for any impacts on his performance due to weight class changes.

WolfTicketsAI has had a generally accurate read on Anders' fights, correctly predicting outcomes in all recent matches provided, save for the Daukaus fight, indicating a strong model performance but one that isn't infallible.

Jamie Pickett's Breakdown

Jamie Pickett, with recent struggles particularly against grappling-based fighters like Bo Nickal, shows a clear area that needs reinforcement. His losses against Denis Tiuliulin and Kyle Daukaus further point to difficulties in handling power strikers and skilled submission artists. Pickett's fight insights against Josh Fremd suggest a fighter with potential in striking yet to fully capitalize on his reach advantage or evolve his game to meet the multifaceted demands of the UFC's middleweight division. His unanimous decision loss to Tafon Nchukwi and TKO by Jordan Wright underscore vulnerabilities when pressured and a need for improved defensive strategies.

The prediction history for Pickett, as analyzed by WolfTicketsAI, shows a consistent pattern where the model accurately foresees the outcomes of his fights, indicating a potential predictability in Pickett's performances that could be exploited by adaptable fighters like Anders.

Analysis and Key Points

The matchup between Eryk Anders and Jamie Pickett is a study in contrasts, with Anders' power and aggressive style pitted against Pickett's longer reach and potential striking advantages. Both fighters have shown vulnerabilities to specific strategies, with Anders susceptible to sustained pressure and grappling, while Pickett struggles against aggressive strikers and ground specialists.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Anders shows an ability to deliver impactful strikes even in losses, which could edge out Pickett whose striking, while long, doesn't always carry fight-ending power.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Indicates Anders' willingness to mix in grappling, providing a strategic advantage over Pickett, who has shown weaknesses on the ground.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Both fighters have room for improvement, but Anders' experience against higher-caliber opponents gives him a slight edge in navigating Pickett's striking.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's robust performance in predicting past fights for both athletes, especially its correct predictions against the odds in Anders' and Pickett's cases, underscores the model's reliability. However, the unexpected outcome in Anders’ fight against Daukaus serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of MMA.

Conclusion

Considering the fighters' histories and statistical analysis, Eryk Anders is favored to win. His power, alongside a slightly more versatile arsenal that includes the threat of takedowns, positions him to exploit Pickett's grappling vulnerabilities and withstand his striking to secure victory. However, given the dynamic nature of MMA, Anders will need to actively address past inconsistencies to cement his win.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Matt Schnell vs Steve Erceg

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Steve Erceg to Win

Score: 18 Odds: Matt Schnell: +255 Steve Erceg: -325

Matt Schnell's Breakdown

Matt Schnell has demonstrated resilience and a wide arsenal of techniques in his UFC tenure. Notably, his ability to bounce back from adversity was apparent in his submission win over Sumudaerji, showcasing his grappling prowess. However, caution is warranted given Schnell's recent losses by KO/TKO, hinting at potential vulnerabilities in his striking defense. Moreover, Schnell's performance against higher-ranking opponents signals a critical area for improvement: dealing with pressure and swiftly exploiting openings. A concerning aspect is his striking impact differential which has been unfavourable, indicating he often absorbs more than he delivers in engagements. Past prediction accuracy for Schnell stands as a mixed bag, with WolfTicketsAI's model correctly predicting outcomes with varying degrees of confidence.

Steve Erceg's Breakdown

Steve Erceg has been on the rise with a promising UFC start, marked by a solid win over David Dvorak and a unanimous decision victory against Alessandro Costa. Erceg's skill set appears well-rounded, highlighting a notable takedown accuracy and a formidable submission game. Interestingly, despite a shorter reach, Erceg effectively manages distance and employs his striking and grappling interchangeably to control the pace and position of fights. His recent performances underline a robust striking defense and a keen acumen for finding openings, particularly in grappling transitions. One area of slight concern could be Erceg's tendency to engage in exchanges that leave him vulnerable to counters. However, his adaptability and strategic fight IQ have so far compensated for this.

Analysis and Key Points

This fight pitches Matt Schnell's experience and comeback ability against Steve Erceg's burgeoning UFC career and holistic skill set. The key to victory for Schnell lies in leveraging his jiu-jitsu to counter Erceg's pressure and potentially exposing Erceg's relative inexperience at this level. Conversely, Erceg should focus on maintaining distance, utilizing his effective leg kicks, and exploiting Schnell's susceptibility to being hit, as indicated by Schnell's striking defense statistics.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction leans towards Steve Erceg, influenced by Erceg's favorable stats in takedowns attempted per fight and striking impact differential, against Schnell's recent win percentage and significant striking impact differential. The prediction also considers Erceg's effective use of clinch strikes and his strategic fighting that minimizes damage - factors critical in enduring Schnell's offensive attempts while creating opportunities for strikes or takedowns.

Past Model Performance

The prediction model has demonstrated mixed accuracy in prior predictions involving Schnell, making this prediction slightly riskier. However, Erceg's consistent performance and adaptive fighting style lend confidence to the model's current prediction.

Conclusion

The WolfTicketsAI analysis supports a victory for Steve Erceg based on his all-around game, strategic approach, and recent performance trajectory. Schnell's best chance lies in his ground game and opportunistic submissions, but the prediction leans towards Erceg's striking and grappling balance ultimately deciding the fight.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Aiemann Zahabi vs Javid Basharat

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Javid Basharat to Win

Score: 19 Odds: Aiemann Zahabi: +475 Javid Basharat: -700

Aiemann Zahabi's Breakdown

With a recent spectacular KO over Aoriqileng, Zahabi's striking power cannot be underestimated. He’s proven capable of ending fights with a single punch, showcasing not just power but precision as well. This victory, along with his wins over Ricky Turcios and Drako Rodriguez, adds to his reputation as a fighter who can find his moment to strike effectively. Notably, Zahabi's technique, honed at Tristar Gym, demonstrates a keen sense of timing and an ability to evolve, crucial against an opponent with Basharat’s versatility. His striking defense, bolstered by a solid 70.98%, alongside his significant striking accuracy of 43.97%, indicates a well-rounded fighter comfortable on his feet. However, a glaring point of concern is Zahabi's striking differential; his recent performances show a trend where he absorbs more than he lands, a risky proposition against a high-output fighter like Basharat.

Past Predictions:

WolfTickets has a mixed prediction history with Zahabi, identifying him correctly as a victor against Aoriqileng but incorrect in the Turcios match. This history reflects the potential risk in overestimating odds based on singular performances.

Javid Basharat's Breakdown

Basharat steps into this fight with an impeccable record, underscoring his undefeated streak with a dominant decision victory over Mateus Mendonca. His comprehensive skill set blends striking with grappling, facilitated by an aggressive takedown strategy that sees him executing nearly twice as many takedowns per fight compared to Zahabi. Basharat's striking output is particularly notable; he lands over 7 significant strikes per minute, dwarfing Zahabi's output and highlighting his ability to control the pace and space of the fight. His striking defense (57.32%) and accuracy (64.07%) further underscore his effectiveness in exchanges. Despite a lack of knockout power shown thus far in the UFC, his overwhelming volume and pace can wear down opponents over the course of a fight. Additionally, Basharat's slight reach advantage and superior TrueSkill ranking may play crucial roles in the striking and grappling exchanges.

Past Predictions:

WolfTickets was wrong in its prediction against Tony Gravely, suggesting that while Basharat is formidable, there may be vulnerabilities yet to be fully exploited by opponents.

Analysis and Key Points

Both fighters showcase strengths that could determine the fight's outcome. Zahabi's knockout power poses a constant threat, requiring Basharat to navigate the striking exchanges with caution. Conversely, Basharat's volume and pace, coupled with a more dynamic attack range, could overwhelm Zahabi, particularly if the fight extends into later rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

Key factors propelling the prediction towards Basharat include his higher TrueSkill ranking and significant striking impact differential, enhancing his win probability. Additionally, his striking output and defensive capabilities suggest he can manage Zahabi's power while outlanding him. The SHAP_DATA points towards Basharat’s winning aspects, with his true skill and recent win percentage being notable contributors to WolfTicketsAI's confidence in his victory.

Past Model Performance

The model's mixed track record with Zahabi adds an element of uncertainty to this prediction. While Basharat’s performance against Gravely was misjudged, his subsequent victories affirm the model's ability to recognize his evolving skill set as a reliable indicator of success.

Conclusion

Considering both fighters' trajectories, styles, and the SHAP_DATA insights, Javid Basharat is poised to maintain his undefeated record against Aiemann Zahabi. Basharat’s volume striking, higher-paced fighting style, and proven ability to handle diverse threats inside the octagon underscore this prediction. The ongoing refinement of his technique, alongside a formidable win streak, suggests Basharat will outwork Zahabi to secure victory, leveraging his superior striking output and defensive skills.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Christian Leroy Duncan vs Claudio Ribeiro

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Christian Leroy Duncan to Win

Score: 18 Odds: Christian Leroy Duncan: -300 Claudio Ribeiro: 240

Christian Leroy Duncan's Breakdown

Christian Leroy Duncan's track record in the UFC showcases a fighter with a prowess for finishing fights, boasting a recent KO/TKO victory over Denis Tiuliulin that demonstrated his dynamic striking and clinch control. Despite a unanimous decision loss to Armen Petrosyan, Duncan's capabilities in managing distance, employing a variety of strikes, and maintaining forward pressure speak to a versatile and adaptive combat style. His loss to Petrosyan, though a setback, showcased areas of potential growth, particularly in dealing with fighters adept in striking defenses and counterattacks.

WolfTicketsAI has had mixed success with predictions on Duncan, notably incorrect in predicting his fight against Petrosyan. While this introduces an element of unpredictability in reliance on the model's foresight, Duncan's significant striking output, ability to land damaging elbows and knees, and superior reach (79 inches) align with traits favoring victory in this matchup.

Claudio Ribeiro's Breakdown

Claudio Ribeiro enters this fight with a record that includes a recent loss by knockout to Roman Kopylov but also boasts a KO/TKO win against Joseph Holmes. His performance against Holmes underlined his effective clinch work and ground control - illustrating a well-rounded skill set that complements his striking prowess. However, his susceptibility to knockouts, as seen in the fight against Kopylov, raises concerns when facing a strikingly proficient and rangy opponent like Duncan.

WolfTicketsAI has accurately predicted Ribeiro's outcomes in recent bouts, indicating a robust analysis of his fighting style and performance trends. Despite this, his reach disadvantage (2 inches shorter than Duncan) and recent vulnerability to KO/TKO losses may impede his effectiveness against an opponent with Duncan's attributes.

Analysis and Key Points

The fight between Duncan and Ribeiro is anticipated to be a striking affair, with both fighters showcasing proficiency in stand-up combat. Duncan's recent victory via elbows and punches demonstrates his lethal striking capacity, especially when controlling opponents against the cage. Conversely, Ribeiro's clinch to ground control transition shown in his fight against Holmes presents a potential strategy against Duncan, provided he can navigate the reach disparity and avoid Duncan's power strikes.

Both fighters' recent performances indicate strengths in striking, with Duncan displaying a more diversified striking game and clinch control, whereas Ribeiro has shown resilience and power in his stand-up game but susceptibility to knockout losses.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction leans towards Duncan, emphasizing his striking defense, recent win percentage, and reach, all of which play pivotal roles in this prediction. Duncan's striking defense (Striking Defense Percentage: 42.54%) and reach advantage are critical, allowing him to manage distance and land significant strikes while mitigating incoming damage. Ribeiro's recent KO/TKO loss further accentuates concerns about his striking defense against a proficient striker like Duncan.

Past Model Performance

Past predictions have shown mixed accuracy for Duncan and a robust track for Ribeiro, indicating a potential risk relying solely on the model's prediction. However, the model's success in predicting outcomes based on striking metrics and fight dynamics provides valuable insight into this matchup.

Conclusion

Taking into account both fighters' arsenal, recent performances, and the comparative analysis of SHAP data insights, Christian Leroy Duncan is favored to win against Claudio Ribeiro. Duncan's superior reach, striking output, and clinch control are anticipated to overcome Ribeiro's aggressive approach and power striking. This fight is expected to be a showcase of striking prowess, with Duncan's versatility and strategic execution being the decisive factors in securing victory.