Results: UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2

Fight Info:
Location: Mexico City, Mexico
Elevation: 2240.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
60.0% 100.0% 81.82%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
60.0% 33.33% 45.45%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
40.0% 33.33% 36.36%
Selected Bets for Event:
ROI: 93.56%
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Yazmin Jauregui, Muhammad Naimov
  • Odds: -164
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Brandon Moreno, Raoni Barcelos, Edgar Chairez
  • Odds: 182
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Jesus Aguilar, Edgar Chairez
  • Odds: 188
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Manuel Torres, Jesus Aguilar, Muhammad Naimov
  • Odds: 419
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Brandon Moreno, Felipe dos Santos, Fares Ziam
  • Odds: 170

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis
SHAP Chart

Analysis: Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Brandon Moreno to Win

Score: 22 Odds: Brandon Moreno: -285 Brandon Royval: +225

Brandon Moreno's Breakdown

Brandon Moreno, with a UFC record of 21 wins and 7 losses, is a formidable opponent known for his well-rounded skill set and aggressive fighting style. He excels in blending high-output striking with smooth grappling transitions. His notable strengths include dynamic striking, unpredictable attack angles, and quick grappling exchanges. However, he sometimes overextends in striking, leaving himself open to counter-strikes. Moreno has shown remarkable adaptability in his UFC journey, particularly against Deiveson Figueiredo, adjusting his stance and tactics to counter his opponent's strengths.

In his recent fights, Moreno demonstrated his technical growth, especially in striking and defensive tactics. Against Kai Kara-France, Moreno's improved striking defense and ability to predict and counter strategies were evident. His versatility, seen in his effective use of a left hook and spinning back fist, aligns with the fighting styles of renowned fighters like Georges St-Pierre.

WolfTicketsAI's past predictions have been mixed for Moreno, with a correct prediction against Kai Kara-France but incorrect ones against Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo. This reflects a certain unpredictability in Moreno's performances, which should be considered when evaluating the upcoming fight.

Brandon Royval's Breakdown

Brandon Royval, holding a record of 15 wins and 7 losses, is known for his high-energy scrambles and aggressive submission attacks. His strengths are in his cardio, pace, and ability to engage effectively in grappling exchanges. However, his eagerness to engage on the ground can sometimes expose him to counters.

Royval's UFC performances have been marked by his adaptability and finishing ability, particularly in submission scenarios. His fight against Rogerio Bontorin highlighted his capability to create dynamic scrambles and utilize his submission skills effectively. His approach contrasts with fighters preferring positional control, making him a unique challenge for his opponents.

WolfTicketsAI's predictions for Royval have been more consistent, with correct predictions in his recent fights against Matt Schnell and Rogerio Bontorin. However, the model incorrectly predicted his fight against Matheus Nicolau, indicating some level of unpredictability in Royval's fighting style.

Previous Fight Breakdown

In their previous encounter, Moreno demonstrated superiority in grappling exchanges and striking accuracy, leading to a TKO victory over Royval. This past performance is a critical factor in assessing their upcoming fight.

Analysis and Key Points

The fight between Moreno and Royval is a clash of styles, with Moreno's well-rounded, adaptable fighting approach against Royval's high-energy, submission-focused style. Moreno's improved striking and defensive capabilities will be key in countering Royval's aggressive grappling and submission attempts.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: Moreno's favorable odds suggest a higher likelihood of his victory.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Moreno's increase in takedown attempts signals his evolving grappling strategy, which could be crucial against Royval's grappling-heavy approach.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Moreno's recent performance shows a higher win ratio, indicating better momentum going into the fight.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Moreno's improved striking defense is a significant factor, especially against Royval's aggressive style.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Moreno's striking impact reflects his ability to land more effective strikes, which could be decisive in this matchup.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's past performance shows a mix of accurate and inaccurate predictions for both fighters. This history suggests a level of uncertainty in the prediction, as both fighters have shown variability in their performances.

Conclusion

Considering their skills, past performances, and WolfTicketsAI's prediction data, Brandon Moreno is favored to win. His improved striking, defensive tactics, and adaptability give him an edge over Brandon Royval's aggressive, submission-focused style. However, the unpredictability in their past performances and the model's mixed prediction accuracy indicate that the fight could have surprising elements, making it a must-watch for MMA fans.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Yair Rodriguez vs Brian Ortega

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Yair Rodriguez to Win

Score: 9 Odds: Yair Rodriguez: -174 Brian Ortega: +145

Yair Rodriguez's Breakdown

Yair Rodriguez, with a record of 16-4-1, showcases a dynamic and unpredictable striking style. His performances against top contenders like Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, despite losses, highlight his resilience and striking creativity. His victory over Brian Ortega by TKO due to a shoulder injury demonstrates his capability to handle Ortega's style. However, his recent KO/TKO loss to Volkanovski raises concerns about his vulnerability to powerful strikers. WolfTicketsAI has a mixed prediction history for Rodriguez, correctly predicting his loss to Volkanovski but inaccurately predicting his win against Josh Emmett.

Brian Ortega's Breakdown

Brian Ortega, holding a 15-3-1 record, is a formidable submission specialist with a well-rounded skill set. His losses to Volkanovski and Rodriguez, and a win over Chan Sung Jung, showcase his ability to compete at the highest level but also point to vulnerabilities against high-caliber strikers. The previous fight against Rodriguez, ending in a TKO due to a shoulder injury, might not fully represent his capabilities in a rematch. Ortega's recent performance trend, with a win rate of 0.33 in his last three fights, signals a possible decline.

Previous Fight Breakdown

In their previous encounter, Rodriguez secured a TKO victory over Ortega. The fight showcased Rodriguez's striking prowess and Ortega's grappling attempts, ultimately leading to an injury-induced finish. This past outcome is crucial in analyzing the dynamics of their upcoming rematch.

Analysis and Key Points

Rodriguez's striking, characterized by unorthodox attacks and agility, will be a significant factor. His ability to manage distance and launch attacks from various angles poses a threat to Ortega. However, Ortega's grappling and submission skills could exploit Rodriguez's lesser ground game if the fight goes to the mat. The key for Rodriguez is to maintain distance and strike effectively, while Ortega should aim to close distance and initiate grappling exchanges.

Understanding the Prediction

Significant factors favoring Rodriguez include his Significant Striking Impact Differential and Striking Impact Differential, reflecting his striking advantage. Ortega's recent performance, indicated by Recent Win Percentage and Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential, points to a decline, favoring Rodriguez. Rodriguez's Reach advantage and superior Striking Defense Percentage also play into the prediction.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's mixed accuracy on past predictions for both fighters adds a layer of uncertainty. While it correctly predicted the outcome of their previous encounter, the model's inaccurate prediction for Rodriguez against Emmett suggests caution in relying solely on the AI's forecast.

Conclusion

Considering Rodriguez's striking superiority and Ortega's recent struggles, Rodriguez is favored to win. However, the unpredictability of MMA and Ortega's potential to capitalize on any grappling exchanges make this an intriguing matchup. The key for Rodriguez is to leverage his striking and manage distance, while Ortega should focus on grappling to exploit Rodriguez's vulnerabilities on the ground.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Daniel Zellhuber vs Francisco Prado

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Daniel Zellhuber to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Daniel Zellhuber: -285 Francisco Prado: +225

Daniel Zellhuber's Breakdown

Daniel Zellhuber, holding a strong record of 14 wins and only 1 loss, demonstrates a solid performance history in the UFC. WolfTicketsAI's predictions have been spot-on for Zellhuber's past two fights, accurately forecasting his wins over Christos Giagos and Lando Vannata. Zellhuber showcases a diverse skill set, evidenced by his victories via submission and unanimous decision. His ability to adapt his strategy mid-fight, moving from striking to grappling as seen in the Giagos fight, highlights his versatility. Additionally, his resilience in surviving early adversity against Giagos and eventually securing a submission win underlines his fighting IQ and physical endurance.

Francisco Prado's Breakdown

Francisco Prado enters the octagon with an impressive record of 12 wins and 1 loss. Prado's recent performance against Ottman Azaitar, where he secured a TKO victory, showcases his powerful striking capabilities. However, his loss to Jamie Mullarkey by unanimous decision reveals potential vulnerabilities, particularly in grappling exchanges and maintaining a consistent offensive output. Despite this, Prado's aggressive style and ability to finish fights stand out as his key strengths. WolfTicketsAI correctly predicted his victory over Azaitar, indicating a reliable understanding of Prado's fighting style.

Analysis and Key Points

Zellhuber's superior reach, technical striking, and versatile skill set give him a distinct advantage. He tends to maintain a high striking output while effectively managing distance, which could be pivotal against Prado's aggressive style. Prado, while powerful, may struggle with Zellhuber's reach and adaptability.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: Zellhuber's favorable odds significantly influenced the model's prediction.
  • Reach: Zellhuber's reach advantage is crucial in striking exchanges.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Zellhuber's recent striking effectiveness adds to his advantage.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: His defensive capabilities further solidify his edge.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Indicates Zellhuber's overall striking superiority.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record with both fighters, accurately predicting the outcomes of their recent fights. This adds confidence to the current prediction.

Conclusion

Daniel Zellhuber's diverse skill set, superior reach, and striking efficiency, coupled with his ability to adapt mid-fight, give him the edge over Francisco Prado. Prado's power and aggressive approach pose a threat, but Zellhuber's technical prowess and defensive skills are likely to prevail. Expect an exciting match with Zellhuber using his reach and versatility to control the fight and secure the win.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Raul Rosas Jr. vs Ricky Turcios

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Raul Rosas Jr. to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Raul Rosas Jr.: -240 Ricky Turcios: 195

Raul Rosas Jr.'s Breakdown

Raul Rosas Jr., despite his youth, has shown he's not just a prospect but a real threat in the bantamweight division. With a UFC record of 2 wins and 1 loss, his performance has been notable. Notably, WolfTicketsAI's prediction accuracy on Rosas Jr. is mixed: correct in his fight against Terrence Mitchell but incorrect against Christian Rodriguez.

Ricky Turcios's Breakdown

Ricky Turcios, with a more experienced profile, holds a UFC record of 2 wins and 1 loss. His fighting style is characterized by high energy and a blend of striking and grappling. However, WolfTicketsAI's historical prediction accuracy for Turcios isn't sterling, having been incorrect in his past two UFC fights.

Analysis and Key Points

Raul Rosas Jr., with his aggressive style, has demonstrated his capability both in striking and on the ground, as seen in his win against Jay Perrin. His loss to Christian Rodriguez, however, showed potential vulnerabilities in adapting to strategic striking and grappling. Ricky Turcios, on the other hand, exhibits a dynamic approach, combining volume striking with movement. His loss to Aiemann Zahabi suggested a need for improved strike accuracy and tactical discipline.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction leans towards Raul Rosas Jr. based on several SHAP data points. The significant factors favoring Rosas include his odds (-240), which greatly influenced the prediction score. His TrueSkill and recent takedown attempts per fight are also advantages. However, the model noted weaknesses in Rosas's significant striking impact differential and striking defense percentage. For Turcios, his reach and some striking differentials act as positive aspects, but they weren't enough to tip the scales in his favor.

Past Model Performance

Given the model's mixed track record with both fighters, there's a degree of uncertainty in this prediction. While Rosas Jr.'s youthful vigor and Turcios's experience make for an intriguing matchup, the model's past inaccuracies suggest caution in heavily relying on its prediction.

Conclusion

Considering the statistical strengths of Raul Rosas Jr. and the unpredictable, high-energy style of Ricky Turcios, this fight promises to be a dynamic clash. Rosas Jr.'s youth and aggression might just edge out Turcios's experience and adaptability, aligning with WolfTicketsAI's prediction. However, the mixed accuracy of past predictions does inject a note of caution into this forecast.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Yazmin Jauregui vs Sam Hughes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Yazmin Jauregui to Win

Score: 26 Odds: Yazmin Jauregui: -550 Sam Hughes: 400

Yazmin Jauregui's Breakdown

Yazmin Jauregui, a formidable striker, has demonstrated her prowess in the octagon with a notable record. She's coming off a recent loss to Denise Gomes, which was a significant setback as it was a first-round TKO. This loss might indicate a vulnerability in her defense, particularly against aggressive strikers. However, her victory against Istela Nunes showcased her ability to bounce back and dominate with striking, leading to a TKO. Her unanimous decision win over Iasmin Lucindo further cements her capability in going the distance. Historically, WolfTicketsAI has had a mixed track record with Jauregui, correctly predicting her win against Nunes but missing the mark in her loss to Gomes.

Sam Hughes's Breakdown

Sam Hughes, on the other hand, holds a more mixed record in the UFC. Her most recent victory over Jaqueline Amorim by unanimous decision demonstrated her resilience and ability to handle pressure from a debuting fighter. However, her loss to Piera Rodriguez and Luana Pinheiro, both by unanimous decision, indicates a potential struggle against fighters who can control the pace and utilize effective striking and grappling. Notably, WolfTicketsAI had mixed accuracy on Hughes' past performances, correctly predicting her loss to Rodriguez but incorrectly forecasting her win against Reed.

Analysis and Key Points

Jauregui's striking prowess, particularly her head strikes and ability to maintain a high striking output, is a key advantage. However, her recent loss by TKO raises questions about her defense against aggressive strikers. Hughes' recent performances suggest a well-rounded skill set, but she may struggle against opponents who can outstrike her or control the pace.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction favoring Jauregui leans heavily on the odds, significant striking impact differential, and recent significant striking impact differential, all favoring Jauregui. However, her TrueSkill is lower compared to Hughes, and recent takedowns attempted per fight slightly disfavor Jauregui, indicating possible vulnerabilities in grappling exchanges.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's track record shows varying accuracy. It successfully predicted Jauregui's win over Nunes but failed in her match against Gomes. Similarly, it was accurate in Hughes' loss to Rodriguez but missed her victory over Reed.

Conclusion

Considering Jauregui's superior striking capabilities and the impact of recent performance metrics, her chances of winning seem strong. However, her recent TKO loss and WolfTicketsAI's mixed prediction accuracy suggest a degree of unpredictability. Hughes' resilience and ability to adapt could make this a closely contested bout. The outcome will likely hinge on Jauregui's striking accuracy and Hughes' ability to counter effectively.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Manuel Torres vs Chris Duncan

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Manuel Torres to Win

Score: 5 Odds: Manuel Torres: -175 Chris Duncan: +145

Manuel Torres's Breakdown

Manuel Torres, with a record of 14 wins and 2 losses, shows a formidable presence in the lightweight division. His recent victories, particularly the impressive knockouts against Nikolas Motta and Frank Camacho, demonstrate his striking prowess. Torres's ability to finish fights, especially with his high knockdowns per fight ratio (5.6782), is a key factor. The fact that WolfTicketsAI correctly predicted his win against Motta bolsters confidence in this prediction.

Chris Duncan's Breakdown

Chris Duncan, holding an 11-1 record, is a strong contender with notable grappling skills, as indicated by his average of 3.5 takedowns per fight. His wins over Yanal Ashmouz and Omar Morales, both by decision, exhibit his endurance and strategic fighting. However, his striking defense (0.5215) and accuracy (0.4950) may not be on par with Torres. WolfTicketsAI's previous successful prediction for Duncan adds an interesting angle to this matchup.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Torres's striking ability, particularly his head strikes landed per minute (5.6782), is a significant advantage.
  • Duncan's grappling and takedown skills could pose a challenge, but his striking defense might be a vulnerability against a striker like Torres.
  • Both fighters have a strong finishing ability, but Torres's recent performance indicates a higher potential for a knockout.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: Torres's favor in odds (-175) aligns with his recent performance and striking ability.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Torres's recent win rate (0.67) indicates a momentum in his favor.
  • Reach: Torres's reach advantage (73 inches) could be pivotal in striking exchanges.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Duncan's lower striking defense (0.5215) is a potential weak point against Torres's striking.

Past Model Performance

  • Torres: The model's past successful prediction for Torres adds reliability to this prediction.
  • Duncan: The model's accuracy in predicting Duncan's past fight also provides a solid basis, although the dynamics of this fight are different.

Conclusion

Manuel Torres is favored to win against Chris Duncan, largely due to his superior striking skills, proven knockout power, and recent performance in the Octagon. Duncan's grappling could be a factor, but Torres's reach and striking might dominate the fight. The prediction is grounded in both fighters' past performances and statistical advantages, particularly favoring Torres's striking ability.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Cristian Quinonez vs Raoni Barcelos

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Raoni Barcelos to Win

Score: 6 Odds: Cristian Quinonez: +147 Raoni Barcelos: -179

Cristian Quinonez's Breakdown

Cristian Quinonez, sporting a professional record of 18 wins and 4 losses, has shown resilience and adaptability in his fights. His UFC history, though less extensive, features a notable win by KO/TKO against Khalid Taha and a loss by submission to Kyung Ho Kang. This demonstrates his striking prowess but also suggests potential vulnerability in grappling exchanges. Quinonez's fighting style is reminiscent of fighters like Demian Maia and Charles Oliveira, using strikes effectively to set up grappling. However, his striking defense percentage of 49.32% and significant striking defense percentage of 56.25% indicate areas for improvement, particularly against a well-rounded opponent like Barcelos.

Raoni Barcelos's Breakdown

Raoni Barcelos, with a record of 17 wins and 5 losses, brings a balanced skill set to the Octagon. His recent performances, including losses to Kyler Phillips and Umar Nurmagomedov, have highlighted both his striking ability and susceptibility to being outmaneuvered by versatile fighters. Barcelos' striking accuracy (55.75%) and significant striking accuracy (51.53%) are solid, but his recent fights show a need for strategic adaptation against dynamic opponents. His takedown accuracy of 37.50% and defense ratio of 11.11% are points of concern against a fighter like Quinonez, who can switch from striking to grappling efficiently.

Analysis and Key Points

The upcoming fight between Quinonez and Barcelos is a classic striker versus all-rounder matchup. Quinonez's striking, highlighted by his victory over Taha, will be key. However, his grappling, shown in the loss to Kang, needs to be on point against Barcelos. For Barcelos, the strategy should involve mixing striking with takedown attempts, exploiting Quinonez's lower takedown defense ratio. Barcelos must be cautious of Quinonez's power in striking, as seen in his fight with Taha.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction in favor of Barcelos seems to hinge on several factors: - Odds: Quinonez being an underdog at +147 impacts the model negatively. - Recent Win Percentage: Barcelos' recent performance, despite recent losses, shows competitiveness in high-caliber matchups. - TrueSkill: Barcelos' higher TrueSkill score suggests a higher overall capability in the Octagon. - Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Barcelos' ability to land more effective strikes recently plays a role. - Striking Impact Differential: This aligns with Barcelos' striking strategy, which could be crucial against Quinonez. - Reach: Barcelos' shorter reach (67 inches) surprisingly contributed positively, possibly indicating effectiveness in close-range combat.

Past Model Performance

  • Cristian Quinonez: WolfTicketsAI correctly predicted Quinonez's loss to Kyung Ho Kang. This enhances confidence in the model's assessment of Quinonez's capabilities.
  • Raoni Barcelos: The model accurately predicted outcomes of Barcelos' fights against Kyler Phillips, Umar Nurmagomedov, and Trevin Jones. This consistency adds credibility to the current prediction.

Conclusion

The fight between Cristian Quinonez and Raoni Barcelos is expected to be a competitive clash of styles. While Quinonez's striking and resilience are commendable, Barcelos' balanced skill set and adaptability give him the edge. The prediction leans towards Barcelos due to his well-rounded fighting style, recent performance against high-level competitors, and the historical accuracy of WolfTicketsAI in predicting outcomes for both fighters. However, the fight's dynamics could shift quickly, especially if Quinonez manages to capitalize on his striking strength and improved grappling.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Jesus Aguilar vs Mateus Mendonca

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jesus Aguilar to Win

Score: 9 Odds: Jesus Aguilar: +125 Mateus Mendonca: -150

Jesus Aguilar's Breakdown

Aguilar's track record in the UFC reveals a fighter with a penchant for striking, as evidenced by his spectacular KO win over Shannon Ross. His KO ability is his ace card, showcased by a high knockdown rate of 3.2491 per fight. However, his submission loss to Tatsuro Taira indicates a potential vulnerability in grappling. Aguilar's takedown stats (attempts, accuracy, and defense) are at zero, signifying his striking-focused approach. His striking accuracy stands at an impressive 80%, but his striking defense lags at 12.5%, suggesting he might be prone to taking hits. WolfTickets' past prediction success with Aguilar (correct prediction for Aguilar vs Ross) lends credence to their current prediction.

Mateus Mendonca's Breakdown

Mendonca's UFC history paints a picture of a grappling-focused fighter, evident from his inclination towards leg entanglements and submissions. However, his recent losses to Nate Maness and Javid Basharat highlight his struggle to balance grappling with striking defense. Mendonca's takedown stats are notably higher than Aguilar's, with 1.5254 takedowns per fight and a 14.29% takedown accuracy. His striking defense percentage is slightly higher than Aguilar's at 17.99%, but his significant striking accuracy is much lower at 33.68%. WolfTickets' incorrect prediction in Mendonca's fight against Maness might introduce some uncertainty in their current prediction.

Analysis and Key Points

The upcoming fight is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Aguilar's striking prowess, especially his knockout power, will be his main weapon against Mendonca's grappling and submission attempts. Mendonca needs to focus on taking the fight to the ground and avoid getting caught in Aguilar's striking range. Aguilar's lower striking defense could be an opening for Mendonca, but he needs to avoid getting hit by powerful strikes while trying to close the distance.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Aguilar's striking dominance, with a 0.5 differential, aligns with the model's emphasis on this feature.
  • Striking Impact Differential: The -1.5 differential for Aguilar suggests a risk, but his knockout power seems to outweigh this in the model's view.
  • Reach: Mendonca's reach advantage (71 inches over Aguilar's 62) is noted by the model but wasn't deemed enough to tilt the prediction.
  • TrueSkill: Aguilar's TrueSkill ratings are slightly lower than Mendonca's, yet the model still favors him, likely due to his striking ability.

Past Model Performance

The model's past performance with Aguilar is accurate, predicting his victory correctly. However, its prediction for Mendonca was off, suggesting a degree of uncertainty in its ability to assess Mendonca's performances accurately.

Conclusion

This fight is expected to be a dynamic clash of styles, with Aguilar's striking clashing against Mendonca's grappling. Aguilar's proven knockout power, despite his defensive vulnerabilities, gives him an edge in this matchup. Mendonca's grappling prowess could pose a threat, but his recent performances and the model's past prediction error for him inject a note of caution. Overall, Aguilar's striking ability, especially his knockout threat, seems to be the key factor in WolfTicketsAI's prediction for his victory.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Edgar Chairez vs Daniel Lacerda

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Edgar Chairez to Win

Score: 22 Odds: Edgar Chairez: -350 Daniel Lacerda: 275

Edgar Chairez's Breakdown

Edgar Chairez, with his odds at -350, demonstrates a strong favor in this matchup. His record in the UFC, including a no contest against Daniel Lacerda, shows a fighter with experience but also some inconsistencies. Chairez's fighting style, characterized by a mix of striking and grappling, was evident in his last two UFC fights. Against Tatsuro Taira, he showcased resilience and adaptability, despite losing by unanimous decision. His striking, particularly in the stand-up exchanges, and his defensive grappling were notable, though he ultimately couldn't match Taira's control and output. WolfTickets previously predicted Chairez to win against Lacerda, but the fight was overturned due to a premature stoppage, marking an uncertainty in prediction accuracy for Chairez.

Edgar Chairez Stats:

His stats reveal a fighter with moderate striking accuracy and a decent takedown defense ratio, though his striking impact differential and significant striking output differential are areas of concern. His recent performance indicators, like recent significant striking impact differential, highlight these issues.

Daniel Lacerda's Breakdown

Daniel Lacerda enters this rematch with a record that includes several losses by KO/TKO, which is a significant factor to consider. His recent performance, particularly against CJ Vergara and Victor Altamirano, showed vulnerabilities in his defense, especially against aggressive strikers. Lacerda's dynamic striking and high-risk style can be a double-edged sword, leading to exciting moments but also leaving him open to counterattacks. The model has had mixed accuracy in predicting Lacerda's fights, correctly predicting his loss to Altamirano but inaccurately predicting his fight against Vergara.

Daniel Lacerda Stats:

Lacerda's stats show a higher significant striking accuracy and a better striking defense percentage compared to Chairez. However, his recent performances, including a significant striking impact differential and striking defense percentage, suggest a potential weakness in dealing with sustained offensive pressure.

Previous Fight Breakdown

Their previous encounter was marked by a controversial stoppage, with Chairez attempting a standing guillotine on Lacerda. This no contest leaves some unanswered questions about how a full fight might unfold between them.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Chairez's adaptable style vs. Lacerda's dynamic, high-risk approach.
  • Lacerda's recent losses by KO/TKO indicate a vulnerability in striking defense.
  • Chairez's grappling and ability to withstand pressure were evident against Taira.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: Strongly favor Chairez, indicating a significant perceived advantage.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Suggests Chairez has been more effective in recent striking exchanges.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Both fighters have had recent struggles, but Chairez's performance against higher-caliber opponents gives him an edge.
  • TrueSkill: Indicates a more refined skill set for Chairez.

Past Model Performance

  • The model's past predictions show mixed accuracy for both fighters, suggesting a level of unpredictability in this matchup.

Conclusion

Given the data and past performances, Edgar Chairez's more adaptable fighting style and better recent performance metrics suggest he has the upper hand against Daniel Lacerda. While Lacerda's striking prowess and aggression make him a formidable opponent, his recent vulnerability to knockouts and Chairez's resilience tilt the prediction in favor of Chairez. However, given the unpredictability marked by their last encounter and the mixed accuracy of past predictions, this fight remains an intriguing and potentially volatile matchup.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Claudio Puelles vs Fares Ziam

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Fares Ziam to Win

Score: 14 Odds: Claudio Puelles: +173 Fares Ziam: -215

Claudio Puelles's Breakdown

Puelles, known for his grappling and submission expertise, has shown vulnerability in stand-up combat, as seen in his recent loss to Dan Hooker. Despite this, his ground game remains a significant threat, with notable victories via submissions, like against Clay Guida and Chris Gruetzemacher. However, WolfTicketsAI's prediction history on Puelles is mixed, indicating some variability in his performance.

Fares Ziam's Breakdown

Ziam has demonstrated a robust striking game and significant improvements in his wrestling and grappling defense, evident in his recent unanimous decision win over Jai Herbert. His reach advantage and effective jab play crucial roles in his striking dominance. WolfTicketsAI has been accurate in predicting Ziam's fights, suggesting a consistent performance aligning with the model's understanding of his strengths.

Analysis and Key Points

The fight presents a classic striker vs. grappler scenario. Puelles will likely aim for takedowns to leverage his submission skills, while Ziam will focus on maintaining distance with his striking and utilizing his improved takedown defense. Puelles' susceptibility to strikes and Ziam's enhanced grappling defense tilt the odds in Ziam's favor.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: Ziam's favorable odds (-215) decreased the model's confidence in Puelles.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Puelles' high takedown attempts indicate his reliance on grappling, countered by Ziam's improved takedown defense.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Ziam's striking advantage, especially in stand-up exchanges, decreases Puelles' chances.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Ziam's recent form is better, enhancing his predicted success.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Ziam's superior striking defense further diminishes Puelles' probability of success.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's past predictions have been somewhat inconsistent for Puelles and consistently accurate for Ziam, suggesting a higher reliability in predicting Ziam's performance.

Conclusion

Fares Ziam's striking prowess and improved grappling defense, combined with his consistent performance, give him the edge over Claudio Puelles. Puelles' submission threat is significant, but Ziam's ability to manage distance and defend takedowns is likely to prevail. WolfTicketsAI's prediction aligns with these assessments, favoring Ziam for the victory.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Victor Altamirano vs Felipe dos Santos

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Felipe dos Santos to Win

Score: 2 Odds: Victor Altamirano: +240 Felipe dos Santos: -300

Victor Altamirano's Breakdown

Victor Altamirano, boasting a solid record with impressive victories, has shown resilience and versatility in his fights. However, his recent unanimous decision loss to Tim Elliott, where he struggled with Elliott's erratic ground strikes and control, exposed certain vulnerabilities. His ability to seize opportunities, as seen in his win over Daniel Lacerda, is notable. Altamirano's stats reflect a fighter who is active and dangerous, with significant strikes landed per minute and a decent takedown defense ratio. However, his striking defense percentage and significant striking defense percentage suggest areas where he can be exploited.

Past Prediction Accuracy: WolfTicketsAI has a mixed track record with Altamirano, correctly predicting his loss to Tim Elliott but also accurately foreseeing his victory over Daniel Lacerda.

Felipe dos Santos's Breakdown

Felipe dos Santos, a less experienced UFC fighter compared to Altamirano, faced a tough unanimous decision loss against Manel Kape. His stats, though limited, show a lower striking accuracy and a concerning striking defense percentage. This could be a critical factor, as dos Santos might struggle against fighters with precise and heavy striking. His recent significant striking output differential and striking impact differential stats indicate a tendency to be outstruck by opponents.

Past Prediction Accuracy: There is limited historical prediction data for dos Santos from WolfTicketsAI, which adds an element of uncertainty to the prediction.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Altamirano's experience and versatility vs. dos Santos's lesser UFC exposure
  • Altamirano's ability to seize opportunities could clash with dos Santos's aggressive style
  • Both fighters have similar reaches, neutralizing potential advantages in this aspect

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: dos Santos is favored, potentially due to Altamirano's recent loss.
  • Significant Striking Output Differential: Favors dos Santos, indicating Altamirano might be outmatched in striking volume.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: dos Santos’s aggressive grappling style could challenge Altamirano's takedown defense.
  • Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage: dos Santos has the edge, suggesting better defense against Altamirano's striking.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Altamirano's higher win rate might not significantly impact this matchup.
  • Striking Impact Differential: Suggests dos Santos could land more impactful strikes.

Past Model Performance

The model's past performance with these fighters, especially its accurate prediction of Altamirano's loss to Tim Elliott, lends some credibility to the current prediction. However, the limited data on dos Santos introduces an element of risk.

Conclusion

The fight between Victor Altamirano and Felipe dos Santos presents an intriguing matchup of Altamirano's experience and striking ability against dos Santos's aggressive style and potential in grappling. While Altamirano has the tools to control the fight, dos Santos's favorable stats in key areas, coupled with WolfTicketsAI’s prediction, suggest that dos Santos might have the strategic edge to secure a victory.

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Analysis: Erik Silva vs Muhammad Naimov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Muhammad Naimov to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Erik Silva: +235 Muhammad Naimov: -300

Erik Silva's Breakdown

Erik Silva's UFC tenure, albeit short, has shown a mixed bag of prowess and vulnerability. His striking accuracy (76.19%) and significant striking accuracy (72.41%) are commendable, but his recent submission loss to TJ Brown raises questions about his ground game resilience. Silva's high takedown accuracy (75%) indicates his wrestling capability, yet his defense needs improvement, as evident in the Brown fight where his ground control was compromised. His striking defense (24.77%) and significant striking defense (36.84%) need bolstering, especially against a striker like Naimov.

Muhammad Naimov's Breakdown

Muhammad Naimov, with a more diverse UFC history, presents a balanced threat in striking and grappling. His knockout victory over Jamie Mullarkey showcases his striking prowess, evidenced by a significant striking accuracy of 50.33% and a notable striking output differential (22.5). His takedown game, though less accurate (40%), is frequently attempted (6.5265 per fight), reflecting his versatility. However, his striking defense (34.13%) and significant striking defense (37.76%) are areas of concern, potentially leaving openings for Silva's accurate strikes.

Analysis and Key Points

Erik Silva, a proficient striker with wrestling capabilities, needs to focus on defense, both on feet and ground, to counter Naimov's aggressive offense. Naimov's striking and takedown diversity offer him multiple avenues to control the fight, yet his defense against precise strikers like Silva remains a critical factor.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: Naimov's favorable odds (-300) indicate a stronger market confidence in him.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Naimov's higher recent win percentage (67%) suggests a momentum advantage.
  • TrueSkill and Win Streak Difference: Both favor Naimov, reflecting his overall superior fight record and current form.
  • Striking Impact Differential: Silva's lower score here (-50) could be a concern against Naimov's aggressive striking.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Naimov's higher attempts indicate a potential strategy to take the fight to the ground.
  • Striking Defense: Both fighters have lower percentages, potentially leading to a striking-heavy bout.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's past prediction error with Naimov (incorrectly picking Nathaniel Wood over him) indicates a potential risk factor in this prediction, especially considering Naimov's eventual decisive victory.

Conclusion

Muhammad Naimov, with a balanced striking and grappling approach and a recent form advantage, seems poised to exploit Erik Silva's defensive vulnerabilities. Silva's striking accuracy and takedown skills present a threat, but his recent submission loss and lower striking defense could be decisive factors. The prediction leans towards Naimov, acknowledging his versatility and momentum, despite past prediction errors by WolfTicketsAI. Silva will need a significantly improved defense and tactical acumen to overturn the odds.