Results: UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington

Fight Info:
Location: Paradise, Nevada, United States
Elevation: 627.00m
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
80.0% 66.67% 72.73%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
80.0% 66.67% 72.73%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
40.0% 50.0% 45.45%
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No parlays selected for this event.

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
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Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Leon Edwards to Win

Leon Edwards's Breakdown

Leon Edwards has shown remarkable consistency in the UFC, boasting a recent win streak and a notable victory over Kamaru Usman. His striking style, though less aggressive, is precise and calculated, capitalizing on clinch striking and effective use of elbows. Edwards' evolution in wrestling, clinch work, and ground game indicates a well-rounded skill set. His kicking abilities maintain range and create openings for strikes. His ability to manage aggressive fighters will be crucial against Covington. However, his performance can be affected by pace management and cardiovascular endurance, especially against a high-volume striker like Covington.

Colby Covington's Breakdown

Colby Covington is known for his ultra-aggressive style, which, though not always damaging, consistently pressures opponents. His exceptional cardio allows him to maintain a high pace, potentially overwhelming Edwards. Covington's wrestling skills, particularly his use of various takedowns and chain wrestling, make him a formidable opponent. His transition from striking to wrestling is a key aspect of his strategy. However, Covington's aggressive takedown attempts leave him vulnerable to submissions, and his predictable striking entries could be exploited by a striker of Edwards' caliber. His forward aggression might also leave him open to counters.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Edwards' precision striking and clinch work can counter Covington's volume striking.
  • Edwards' improved wrestling and ground game are essential against Covington's takedown attempts.
  • Covington's relentless aggression and cardio could test Edwards' pace management and endurance.
  • Covington's takedown variety and striking to wrestling transitions are key, but he must avoid being predictable and exposing himself to counters.


Leon Edwards is predicted to win, likely due to his precise striking, improved grappling, and ability to manage aggressive fighters like Covington. However, Covington's relentless pace and wrestling could challenge Edwards, especially if he can maintain pressure and avoid being countered. The fight's outcome will hinge on Edwards' ability to counter Covington's aggression with calculated striking and clinch work, while Covington must balance his aggression with caution to avoid Edwards' counters.

UFC Fight Analysis: Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alexandre Pantoja to Win

Alexandre Pantoja's Breakdown

Alexandre Pantoja, the current flyweight champ, has proven his mettle with a solid UFC record, including two victories over Brandon Moreno, the former champ. His aggressive striking, although technically unrefined, is complemented by outstanding grappling skills, particularly in taking and controlling the back. Pantoja's ability to adapt in striking exchanges and his high-level jiu-jitsu make him a formidable opponent. However, his striking approach could be a double-edged sword, potentially exposing him to counters. His recent UFC journey showcases a fighter with consistent performance and an inclination for finishes, primarily through submissions.

Brandon Royval's Breakdown

Brandon Royval, known for his dynamic fighting style, has shown proficiency in both striking and grappling. His recent UFC run includes impressive wins, highlighting his ability to finish fights, notably through submissions. Royval's striking, while aggressive, needs to be strategically balanced to avoid being countered by Pantoja's grappling prowess. Effective clinch work and the ability to handle pressure will be crucial for Royval. His mental toughness and adaptability, as demonstrated in past fights, could play a significant role in this matchup.

Analysis and Key Points

Pantoja's aggressive striking, combined with elite grappling, poses a significant threat to Royval. Pantoja's propensity to engage in striking exchanges, despite the technical flaws, has worked in his favor due to his tenacity and durability. Royval, while skilled in scrambles and submissions, must be wary of Pantoja's ability to capitalize on grappling exchanges. Royval's striking and clinch work could be key, but he must avoid getting trapped in Pantoja's grappling game.


Given Pantoja's track record, especially his previous victory over Royval and superior grappling credentials, WolfTicketsAI's prediction leans convincingly towards Pantoja. His ability to combine gritty striking with high-level jiu-jitsu makes him a formidable champion. Royval's dynamic style and resilience pose a threat, but overcoming Pantoja's grappling and striking pressure will be a significant challenge.

UFC Fight Analysis: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Stephen Thompson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Shavkat Rakhmonov to Win

Shavkat Rakhmonov's Breakdown

Shavkat Rakhmonov, the undefeated Kazakh sensation, has quickly climbed the ranks with a perfect record, showcasing a diverse skill set. Rakhmonov’s recent victories, notably over Geoff Neal and Neil Magny, demonstrate his proficiency in both striking and grappling. His striking is marked by measured, precise shots, particularly effective against southpaws. His clinch game is equally formidable, often transitioning from strikes to clinch positions where he utilizes knees and elbows effectively. While he possesses solid grappling skills, Rakhmonov has shown vulnerabilities in wrestling exchanges and scrambling situations. His “tall man defense” could be a liability against a skilled striker like Thompson.

Stephen Thompson's Breakdown

Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, known for his karate-based striking style, brings a unique challenge with excellent distance management and precise counter-striking. His lateral movement and use of angles make him elusive, and his array of traditional karate techniques, like spinning attacks, add unpredictability to his game. Thompson's weaknesses lie in his grappling and clinch work, areas that Rakhmonov could exploit. Moreover, Thompson's age might be a factor, potentially affecting his speed and athleticism, which are crucial against a dynamic opponent like Rakhmonov.

Analysis and Key Points

The key to this fight lies in the striking and distance management. Rakhmonov’s measured approach and ability to transition to clinches could neutralize Thompson's karate style. However, Thompson's counter-striking prowess and experience cannot be underestimated. The fight will hinge on whether Rakhmonov can close the distance and engage in clinches or ground exchanges, exploiting Thompson’s weaker grappling. Conversely, if Thompson maintains distance and controls the fight’s pace with his striking, he could find success.


Given Rakhmonov's versatility and Thompson's grappling vulnerabilities, along with potential age-related decline in athleticism, WolfTicketsAI's prediction favoring Rakhmonov seems well-founded. Rakhmonov’s ability to blend striking with clinch work and grappling poses a significant challenge to Thompson’s striking-centric approach. This fight will likely be a test of Thompson's ability to manage distance and avoid Rakhmonov's pressure and grappling.

UFC Fight Analysis: Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Paddy Pimblett to Win

Tony Ferguson's Breakdown

Ferguson, a seasoned fighter with a unique, unpredictable style, has faced a rough patch recently, losing his last five fights, three by submission and two by KO/TKO. This signals a potential vulnerability, especially since his most recent defeat was a submission loss to Bobby Green. His high-risk, high-reward fighting approach, characterized by aggressive striking and scrambling, may have taken a toll, as recent performances indicate a possible decline in speed and reaction time. However, his experience, cardio, and D'Arce choke expertise shouldn't be underestimated.

Paddy Pimblett's Breakdown

Pimblett, on a four-fight win streak in the UFC, has shown a balanced mix of striking and grappling. Notably, he has a higher submission rate, suggesting a strong ground game. Pimblett's tendency to reach for single-leg takedowns, however, has exposed him to damage, a point Ferguson could exploit. His takedown execution needs refinement, but his persistence and pressure in grappling exchanges are commendable. Pimblett's performance against pressure and in clinch situations could be decisive in this matchup.

Analysis and Key Points

Ferguson's recent string of losses, particularly by submission and KO/TKO, is a significant concern. His aggressive, forward-pressure style may clash with Pimblett's grappling-oriented approach. Pimblett's recent UFC record, combined with his effective grappling and submission skills, aligns with WolfTicketsAI's prediction. However, Ferguson's experience and unorthodox striking could pose a challenge to Pimblett, especially if he exploits Pimblett's vulnerabilities during takedown attempts.


Considering Ferguson's recent downturn and susceptibility to finishes, combined with Pimblett's rising momentum and effective grappling, the prediction for Pimblett to win seems well-founded. However, the clash of Ferguson's unpredictable striking against Pimblett's grappling-centric approach makes this an intriguing matchup that could potentially go either way, depending on how each fighter manages to impose their game plan.

UFC Fight Analysis: Josh Emmett vs Bryce Mitchell

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Bryce Mitchell to Win

Josh Emmett's Breakdown

Josh Emmett's recent UFC performance shows a mixed bag of results, with his last two fights resulting in losses - one by submission and the other by unanimous decision. Emmett's strengths lie in his striking power and wrestling, honed at Team Alpha Male. He's known for his heavy hands and ability to deliver knockouts, as evidenced by his wins against Bektic and Johnson. However, his recent fights indicate a potential vulnerability in maintaining consistency throughout the fight, especially when faced with skilled grapplers or diverse strikers.

Bryce Mitchell's Breakdown

Bryce Mitchell, coming off a unanimous decision win against Dan Ige, boasts an impressive grappling and submission game. His record is peppered with submission wins, showing his prowess on the ground. Mitchell's strategy against Emmett will likely involve leveraging his superior wrestling and submission skills. His ability to maintain pressure and integrate striking with takedown attempts has served him well in past fights, like his win against Barboza, and will be crucial against Emmett's striking and wrestling defense.

Analysis and Key Points

Emmett's recent losses, particularly the submission loss to Rodriguez, could be a critical factor considering Mitchell's grappling strength. Emmett's striking remains a potent weapon, but his recent trend suggests a potential vulnerability against versatile fighters who can challenge him both on the feet and on the ground. Mitchell's relentless pressure and ground game might exploit these vulnerabilities. Additionally, Emmett's recent performance trend, losing 2 of his last 3 fights, indicates a possible downturn in his career trajectory.

Mitchell, on the other hand, has shown a more consistent upward trend, with his grappling and pressure fighting being particularly effective against diverse opponents. His recent win against Ige, a well-rounded fighter, further cements his capability to handle different fighting styles.


Considering Emmett's recent struggles, particularly against grapplers and versatile strikers, and Mitchell's consistent performance with a strong focus on grappling and pressure, WolfTicketsAI's prediction in favor of Bryce Mitchell seems well-founded. Mitchell's ability to blend striking with takedowns and control the ground game could be the key to overcoming Emmett's striking power and wrestling base.

UFC Fight Analysis: Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Irene Aldana to Win

Irene Aldana's Breakdown

Irene Aldana, a skilled fighter with a UFC history marked by several notable victories, primarily through KO/TKO, demonstrates her capability in the stand-up game. Her recent loss to Amanda Nunes, while unanimous, showed resilience and the ability to withstand pressure against a top-tier opponent. Aldana's statistics reveal a strong tendency towards striking, with significant numbers in head strikes landed per minute and a notable striking accuracy. Her ability to land significant strikes and maintain a high striking output differential indicates her prowess in controlling the pace and dynamics of a fight.

Karol Rosa's Breakdown

Karol Rosa, on the other hand, shows a balanced mix of striking and grappling. Her recent win over Yana Santos at Women's Featherweight by split decision and her overall UFC history suggest a tendency to go the distance in fights, relying on decisions rather than finishes. Rosa's stats, particularly in takedowns per fight and striking accuracy, illustrate her as a versatile fighter who can handle various aspects of MMA effectively. However, her loss to Norma Dumont by unanimous decision in her previous fight might indicate some vulnerability against opponents with strong tactical acumen.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Aldana's striking ability, especially in head strikes, might be a critical factor in this fight.
  • Rosa's versatility in both striking and grappling presents a well-rounded challenge.
  • Aldana's experience against top-tier opponents like Nunes could be advantageous.
  • Rosa's ability to go the distance in fights suggests good endurance but might lack the finishing power seen in Aldana's record.


Considering the statistics and recent performances of both fighters, Aldana's striking prowess and experience against high-caliber opponents seem to give her the edge in this matchup. While Rosa's well-rounded skill set and endurance make her a formidable opponent, Aldana's ability to control the fight with her striking and her proven track record of finishing fights suggest she has the upper hand in this matchup, aligning with WolfTicketsAI's prediction.

UFC Fight Analysis: Cody Garbrandt vs Brian Kelleher

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Cody Garbrandt to Win

Cody Garbrandt's Breakdown

Cody Garbrandt's recent performance has been a mixed bag, with a 2-3 record in his last five UFC fights. Notably, three of these losses were by KO/TKO, raising concerns about his chin's durability. Despite this, his striking prowess remains formidable, averaging 2.2203 head strikes landed per minute. His wrestling background, with an average of 1.1290 takedowns per fight, provides a solid foundation for both offense and defense. Garbrandt's adaptability and fight IQ will be critical, especially in managing distance to avoid knockout punches.

Brian Kelleher's Breakdown

Brian Kelleher has a more varied record, with a 3-2 record in his last five UFC fights. His strength lies in his grappling, with an average of 1.7862 takedowns per fight and a strong submission game, evident in his recent wins. However, his chin and durability may be tested against Garbrandt's striking. Kelleher's strategy should focus on exploiting Garbrandt's known vulnerabilities, particularly the chin, while being cautious of Garbrandt's counter-striking ability. Engaging in clinch work and maintaining a strong defensive grappling game will be key to neutralizing Garbrandt's striking advantage.

Analysis and Key Points

Both fighters have their strengths and weaknesses. Garbrandt's striking is a significant threat, but his recent KO/TKO losses suggest vulnerability. Kelleher's grappling and submission skills could exploit this, but he must be wary of Garbrandt's power punches. Garbrandt's move to Flyweight and back to Bantamweight could affect his performance, while Kelleher's recent two-fight losing streak may impact his confidence. Kelleher should avoid stand-up exchanges and look for takedowns, while Garbrandt needs to maintain distance and utilize his striking advantage.


WolfTicketsAI's prediction in favor of Cody Garbrandt seems reasonable given his striking power and speed, though his recent vulnerability to knockouts is a concern. For Kelleher, the key to victory lies in his grappling and ability to withstand Garbrandt's powerful strikes. This fight could go either way, with Garbrandt having the edge in stand-up and Kelleher potentially dominating on the ground.

UFC Fight Analysis: Alonzo Menifield vs Dustin Jacoby

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Dustin Jacoby to Win

Alonzo Menifield's Breakdown

Alonzo Menifield, with a record of 14 wins and 3 losses, shows notable strength in striking, particularly with a high number of knockdowns per fight (0.6623) and strong head strikes landed per minute (3.1788). His recent performance is commendable, maintaining a 100% win rate in his last few fights. However, concerns arise from his past losses via KO/TKO, indicating potential vulnerabilities in his defense, especially given the fierce competition in the Light Heavyweight division.

Dustin Jacoby's Breakdown

Dustin Jacoby, possessing a record of 19 wins and 7 losses, demonstrates a balanced skill set with a significant striking output differential (18.5833) and a high striking impact differential (9.5000). His recent fights show a mixed bag of results, with a recent win rate of 33%. Jacoby's ability to land effective strikes while maintaining a strong defense (takedown defense ratio of 0.8889) positions him as a formidable opponent in the Light Heavyweight division.

Analysis and Key Points

The matchup between Menifield and Jacoby is a clash of striking prowess. Menifield's aggressive knockout power is countered by Jacoby's balanced striking and defense technique. The key factor could be Jacoby's superior experience and his ability to absorb and respond to high-impact strikes. Menifield's past losses due to KO/TKO are a crucial point, as Jacoby's striking precision could exploit this weakness.


Considering the statistical analysis and recent performances, Dustin Jacoby's well-rounded striking and defensive capabilities, along with his experience, give him the edge in this fight. While Menifield's knockout power is a threat, Jacoby's ability to handle high-pressure fights and his recent winning momentum support WolfTicketsAI's prediction for a Jacoby victory.

UFC Fight Analysis: Tagir Ulanbekov vs Cody Durden

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Tagir Ulanbekov to Win

Tagir Ulanbekov's Breakdown

Tagir Ulanbekov, with an impressive 14-2 record, is a formidable force in the flyweight division. His recent victory over Nate Maness by submission highlights his grappling prowess, especially given that Maness had never been submitted before. However, his loss to Tim Elliott by unanimous decision shows vulnerability in dealing with unorthodox striking and grappling, a point to be noted. Ulanbekov's stats reveal a strong grappling base with high takedown attempts per fight and a decent takedown defense ratio. His striking stats, particularly in head strikes landed per minute, suggest proficiency in stand-up combat as well. However, his recent fight metrics indicate a potential decline in striking impact and output differentials, something Durden might exploit.

Cody Durden's Breakdown

Cody Durden comes into this fight with a 16-4 record, carrying momentum from a unanimous decision win over Jake Hadley. His diverse skill set is evident in his recent fights, showing an ability to control the fight both standing and on the ground. Notably, Durden's takedown attempts per fight and accuracy highlight a strong wrestling background, crucial against a grappler like Ulanbekov. Despite a submission loss to Muhammad Mokaev, Durden's overall win streak and versatility, especially in his striking with a higher significant strike accuracy, make him a tough opponent. His recent performances show an increased striking impact, something that could pose a challenge to Ulanbekov's defense.

Analysis and Key Points

The match-up between Ulanbekov and Durden is intriguing, with both fighters having distinct strengths. Ulanbekov's grappling and submission skills are top-notch, but his striking defense has been tested. Durden's versatile striking and wrestling base present a unique challenge to Ulanbekov's style. Durden's increased striking output and impact in recent fights might pressure Ulanbekov's defense. However, Ulanbekov's ability to control the pace and his submission threat cannot be underestimated.


Considering the strengths and recent performances of both fighters, Tagir Ulanbekov's grappling and submission abilities, coupled with adequate striking, give him a slight edge in this matchup. Durden's striking and wrestling are formidable, but Ulanbekov's recent submission win and overall UFC record suggest he might control the fight on the ground, leading to a potential submission victory or a decision win.

UFC Fight Analysis: Andre Fili vs Lucas Almeida

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Andre Fili to Win

Andre Fili's Breakdown

Andre Fili, with a UFC history marked by alternating wins and losses, displays a diverse skill set. Key strengths include his ability to switch stances, offering a dynamic challenge to opponents, and a strong jab that can control distance and set up power shots. His combination of high kicks with boxing techniques makes him a formidable striker. However, vulnerabilities lie in his predictability and a potential weakness in clinch work. Recent losses, especially the KO/TKO by Joanderson Brito, raise concerns about his striking defense. Fili's recent win percentage in the UFC is 0.33, signaling a possible downward trend in his career.

Lucas Almeida's Breakdown

Lucas Almeida, comparatively inexperienced in the UFC with only two fights, shows promise but lacks a detailed analysis of his fighting style. His recent loss to Pat Sabatini by submission and a win by KO/TKO against Michael Trizano highlight a mixed performance. Almeida's limited UFC history makes it challenging to fully assess his capabilities and strategies against a versatile striker like Fili. His recent win percentage of 0.33 in the UFC, identical to Fili's, suggests he's still finding his footing in the promotion.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Fili's experience and varied skill set, including effective stance switching and a strong jab, give him an edge. However, his recent performances suggest vulnerabilities, particularly in striking defense.
  • Almeida's limited UFC history makes him somewhat of an unknown quantity. His recent performances indicate potential but also expose areas for improvement, especially in grappling defense.
  • Both fighters have a recent win rate of 33% in the UFC, implying they are at a critical point in their careers.


Andre Fili's experience and striking versatility position him as the favorite in this matchup, as predicted by WolfTicketsAI. However, his recent performances suggest potential vulnerabilities that Almeida could exploit. Almeida's limited UFC history presents both a challenge in assessing his full potential and an opportunity for him to surprise. This fight could be pivotal for both fighters in establishing their trajectories in the UFC.

UFC Fight Analysis: Casey O'Neill vs Ariane Lipski

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Casey O'Neill to Win

Casey O'Neill's Breakdown

Casey O'Neill has shown remarkable versatility in her UFC stint, with a robust record of four wins in her five UFC outings. Her ability to mix up takedowns and strikes is commendable. Her recent loss to Jennifer Maia was a decision, indicating her resilience in the cage. O'Neill's aggressive style, highlighted by her high head strikes landed per minute, and her significant striking accuracy demonstrate her capability to dominate stand-up exchanges. Moreover, her substantial takedown attempts per fight reflect her proficiency in grappling. However, her recent fight stats show a slight decline in striking defense, which could be a point of concern against a striker like Lipski.

Ariane Lipski's Breakdown

Ariane Lipski, with a UFC record of 6 wins and 4 losses, has had a mixed bag of results. Her striking prowess is evident, with a decent number of head and body strikes landed per minute. Lipski’s recent wins against Gatto and Aldrich show her ability to go the distance, winning by decision. However, her vulnerability to knockouts, as seen in her losses to Cachoeira and De La Rosa, raises concerns, especially against a fighter with O'Neill's aggression. Lipski's striking defense and accuracy are areas where she lags slightly behind O'Neill, which might be pivotal in this matchup.

Analysis and Key Points

  • O'Neill's Aggression vs. Lipski's Striking: O'Neill's forward pressure and volume striking might overwhelm Lipski, who tends to absorb a significant number of head strikes.
  • Ground Game: O'Neill's takedown attempts and grappling could be key against Lipski, who has shown susceptibility in takedown defense.
  • Lipski’s Knockout Vulnerability: Lipski's recent KO/TKO losses indicate a potential area for O'Neill to exploit, given her KO/TKO victories in the UFC.
  • Recent Form: O'Neill's recent loss doesn't overshadow her overall impressive UFC run. Lipski's recent victories show her ability to bounce back but her inconsistent performance raises questions.


Considering the aggressive fighting style of Casey O'Neill, coupled with her superior grappling and striking volume, she seems well-positioned to take the win against Ariane Lipski. Lipski’s striking abilities pose a threat, but her vulnerability to knockouts and weaker takedown defense tilt the odds in O'Neill's favor. WolfTicketsAI's prediction aligns with this analysis, favoring O'Neill's well-rounded skillset and recent UFC performance.