Results: UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez

Fight Info:
Location: Enterprise, Nevada, United States
Elevation: 777.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
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The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
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Fight Analysis

Fight Analysis: Song Yadong vs Chris Gutierrez

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Song Yadong to Win

Song Yadong's Key Strengths and Recent Performance: - Yadong's impressive UFC history shows a strong leaning towards knockouts, with multiple KO/TKO victories. His recent win against Ricky Simon by TKO demonstrates his striking prowess. - He has an excellent striking game, evident in his high number of strikes landed per minute (6.0425) and significant striking accuracy (0.4247). - His UFC history, including a win over Marlon Moraes by KO/TKO and a split decision victory against Casey Kenney, reflects his ability to handle diverse fighting styles. - However, his loss to Cory Sandhagen by TKO - Doctor's Stoppage suggests vulnerability under sustained pressure.

Chris Gutierrez's Key Strengths and Recent Performance: - Gutierrez's recent unanimous decision victory over Alatengheili highlights his striking ability and defensive skills. - He possesses a significant leg kick game, with a high rate of leg kicks landed per minute (2.3493). This could be a key factor in disrupting Yadong's movement and striking. - His loss to Pedro Munhoz, however, shows potential weaknesses in handling aggressive pressure and grappling.

Comparative Analysis:

  • Yadong's more frequent KO/TKO wins suggest superior power in striking compared to Gutierrez.
  • Gutierrez’s leg kicks could play a critical role, but Yadong's ability to land significant strikes and maintain a high striking output might overshadow this.
  • Yadong's striking accuracy and output seem to give him an edge in a stand-up battle.

Additional Considerations:

  • Both fighters have shown resilience and versatility in their UFC careers.
  • Yadong's experience in handling fighters with varied styles gives him an adaptable edge.
  • Gutierrez's recent performances, although impressive, seem slightly less dominant compared to Yadong's knockout capabilities.

Conclusion:

WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Song Yadong winning appears well-founded. Yadong's striking ability, significant strike output, and history of knockout victories give him a considerable advantage. While Gutierrez’s leg kicks and striking defense are notable, Yadong's overall striking prowess and adaptability in the octagon seem likely to lead him to victory in this matchup.

Fight Analysis: Anthony Smith vs Khalil Rountree Jr.

Anthony Smith Analysis:

  • Recent Performance: Anthony Smith's recent UFC history is a mixed bag. He's faced some high-caliber opponents, showing resilience and skill, especially in grappling with wins via submission and doctor's stoppage. However, his losses, particularly by KO/TKO, are concerning, including a recent defeat by Magomed Ankalaev.
  • Key Heuristics: Smith's loss by KO/TKO to Ankalaev indicates potential vulnerability, aligning with our first heuristic. His win percentage in the UFC is decent (0.6727) but not outstanding. Also, having fought 20 times in the UFC, he has plenty of experience, negating concerns about a limited history.
  • Statistical Standouts: His striking defense percentages (0.3650 overall, 0.4618 significant) are moderately good. His striking accuracy (0.5237) and significant striking accuracy (0.4950) are reasonable, indicating he can land effective shots. However, the recent increase in head strikes absorbed per minute is a red flag.

Khalil Rountree Jr. Analysis:

  • Recent Performance: Rountree's recent UFC history is impressive. He's on a winning streak, with victories largely by KO/TKO. This suggests strong striking power, a key asset in the light heavyweight division.
  • Key Heuristics: Rountree's recent win streak, particularly his KO/TKO victories, suggest he's in prime form. With a UFC win percentage of 0.7222, he's shown consistent success in the octagon.
  • Statistical Standouts: Rountree's striking statistics are notable. His striking accuracy (0.4252) and significant striking accuracy (0.3868) are slightly lower than Smith's, but his knockdowns per fight (1.6880) are impressive. His recent significant strikes landed per minute (3.9398) and recent striking defense percentage (0.4888) are also strong indicators of his striking prowess.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction:

  • Prediction: Khalil Rountree Jr. to win.
  • Justification: Rountree's recent performances, particularly his knockout power, align with his predicted victory. Smith's susceptibility to KO/TKO, highlighted by recent losses in this manner, reinforces this prediction.

Conclusion:

  • Fight Outlook: Expect a striking-heavy contest. Smith may attempt to leverage his grappling, but Rountree's striking, especially his power and recent form, give him the edge. Rountree's ability to land significant strikes and his knockout power are likely to be decisive factors against Smith, who has shown vulnerability in this area.
  • Final Prediction: Khalil Rountree Jr. is favored to win, likely by KO/TKO, capitalizing on his striking strengths and Smith's recent struggles in stand-up exchanges.

Analysis and Summary: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Nasrat Haqparast

  • Recent Form: Haqparast has a strong recent record in the UFC, with 3 wins out of his last 5 fights, showing resilience and adaptability. His wins are predominantly by decision, indicating a strategic approach and endurance.
  • Knockout Concern: Haqparast's loss to Drew Dober via KO/TKO is a red flag (Heuristic 1). This might be a vulnerability against a powerful striker like Mullarkey.
  • Stylistic Tendencies: Haqparast demonstrates a preference for striking, with high rates in head strikes landed and significant strikes. His defense stats are solid, showing an ability to handle incoming attacks effectively.
  • Overall UFC Performance: His UFC career has been quite successful, with a focus on technical striking and decision wins, suggesting a methodical and strategic fighting style.

Jamie Mullarkey

  • Recent Form: Mullarkey's recent UFC record is mixed, with 3 wins and 2 losses. His recent loss by KO/TKO to Muhammad Naimov is concerning (Heuristic 1) and may impact his performance against a striker like Haqparast.
  • Versatile Fighter: Mullarkey shows a more varied skill set with notable takedown stats and a balance between striking and grappling. This could provide him an edge in versatility.
  • Knockout Power: With wins by KO/TKO, Mullarkey poses a knockout threat, especially given Haqparast's previous KO/TKO loss.
  • Overall UFC Performance: Mullarkey's UFC journey has been a bit uneven, but his capability to win both on the ground and standing up showcases his adaptability in different fight scenarios.

Fight Prediction

WolfTicketsAI predicts Nasrat Haqparast to win. This prediction aligns with Haqparast's recent form and technical striking ability. His striking defense and significant strike stats suggest he can outmaneuver and outstrike Mullarkey. However, Mullarkey's knockout power and ground game pose a threat. Haqparast's loss via KO/TKO to Dober is a concern, especially against a fighter with Mullarkey's power.

Haqparast's strategy will likely involve utilizing his striking accuracy and defense, aiming to outscore Mullarkey in a long fight, possibly targeting a decision win. Mullarkey might look to exploit any openings for a powerful strike or take the fight to the ground, capitalizing on any weaknesses in Haqparast's grappling defense.

Conclusion

Given Haqparast's consistent performance and strategic approach, along with his ability to handle various fighting styles, he seems well-positioned to win. However, Mullarkey's knockout capability and ground game could turn the tide if he capitalizes on any openings. This matchup promises a clash of strategies, with Haqparast likely focusing on a technical, striking-based game and Mullarkey seeking opportunities for powerful, fight-ending strikes or takedowns.

JunYong Park vs Andre Muniz UFC Fight Analysis

Overview

JunYong Park is set to clash with Andre Muniz in a highly anticipated middleweight bout. WolfTicketsAI has predicted a victory for Park with a confidence score of 5. This prediction aligns with Park's recent performance and stats.

JunYong Park Analysis

Park, also known as the "Iron Turtle", shows impressive stats and a strong UFC track record. He's riding a wave of victories, winning his last five fights, four of which were in the middleweight class. A key victory was against Albert Duraev, where Park showcased his resilience and submission skills. His significant strikes, both attempted and landed per minute, are higher than Muniz’s. Park's recent performance in striking and submissions, especially his rear-naked chokes, demonstrates his versatility and threat in both stand-up and ground game.

However, it's crucial to note that Park lost to Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO, which could be a vulnerability against a striker like Muniz. Despite this, Park's recent win streak and overall UFC performance, with a win percentage of 1.00 in recent fights, indicate a strong upward trajectory in his career.

Andre Muniz Analysis

Muniz, on the other hand, has a mixed recent record. He lost two of his last three fights, one by KO/TKO and the other by submission. This raises concerns about his resilience in both stand-up and grappling exchanges. Muniz's significant striking accuracy and output are lower than Park's, which might put him at a disadvantage in a striking battle. However, his submission skills, particularly in earlier fights, should not be underestimated.

Muniz's recent losses, especially the KO/TKO by Paul Craig, are significant. This loss could be a psychological disadvantage and a physical concern if he hasn’t fully recovered.

Key Points

  1. Recent Performance: Park's recent win streak and impressive submissions are contrasted by Muniz's recent losses, including a KO/TKO defeat.
  2. Striking and Grappling: Park shows superiority in striking stats and has proven his grappling skills. Muniz, while a competent grappler, has shown vulnerabilities in his recent fights.
  3. Psychological and Physical Factors: Muniz's recent KO/TKO loss could impact his confidence and physical resilience in this fight.

Conclusion

Considering the recent performances, statistics, and WolfTicketsAI’s prediction, JunYong Park seems to have a significant advantage going into this fight. His striking superiority, recent form, and ability to win by submission position him as the likely victor against Muniz. Muniz's recent setbacks, particularly his vulnerability to both strikes and submissions, make this matchup challenging for him. Park's versatility and momentum are key factors making him the favored fighter in this middleweight bout.

Fight Analysis: Song Kenan vs Kevin Jousset

Song Kenan's Breakdown

  • Recent Performance: Song Kenan shows mixed results in his recent UFC fights with a win against Rolando Bedoya but losses to Ian Garry and Max Griffin by KO/TKO. This raises a red flag per our heuristic #1, as being knocked out in recent fights increases the likelihood of losing subsequent bouts.
  • Career Trajectory: Kenan has a decent win percentage of 0.7407 overall but only a 0.33 win rate in his most recent fights, indicating a possible downward trend in his career (heuristic #4).
  • Striking Stats: Kenan's striking stats reveal a strong striking game with high numbers in both head and leg strikes landed per minute. However, his significant striking impact differential is negative, suggesting he's taking more damage than he delivers in significant exchanges.

Kevin Jousset's Breakdown

  • UFC Experience: Jousset has fewer fights in the UFC compared to Kenan, which might make the prediction less certain (heuristic #2). However, his recent win over Kiefer Crosbie by submission shows his capability in the octagon.
  • Submission Strength: Jousset's impressive submission stats, with a high number of submissions per fight, indicate a strong ground game, which could be a key factor in this matchup.
  • Striking and Defense: His striking and defense statistics, while not as high as Kenan's in terms of volume, show efficiency and effectiveness. Jousset's recent fights exhibit a solid balance between offense and defense, crucial in high-level matchups.

Comparative Analysis

  • Striking vs Grappling: Kenan's strength appears to be in striking, particularly in head and leg strikes. Jousset, on the other hand, has demonstrated a more versatile game with effective grappling and submission skills.
  • Durability and Recent Trends: Kenan's recent KO/TKO losses suggest a potential vulnerability, especially against a well-rounded fighter like Jousset who can exploit openings both in striking and on the ground.
  • Statistical Edges: Jousset's recent win percentage is higher, and his submission skills present a significant threat to Kenan, who has shown susceptibility to being finished in fights.

Prediction Justification

WolfTicketsAI predicts Kevin Jousset to win, and the analysis supports this. Jousset's grappling and submission prowess, coupled with efficient striking and defense, align well against Kenan's striking-focused approach and recent vulnerabilities to finishes. While Kenan's experience and striking power are notable, the recent trends and Jousset's well-rounded skill set tilt the prediction in his favor.


Conclusion: Given the statistical analysis and fight breakdowns, Kevin Jousset's diverse skill set and recent performance edge give him the advantage in this matchup against Song Kenan, whose recent KO/TKO losses and negative striking differentials pose significant concerns.

UFC Fight Analysis: HyunSung Park vs Shannon Ross

Background Context

In the upcoming UFC flyweight clash, we see HyunSung Park pitted against Shannon Ross. WolfTicketsAI has predicted a win for Park, and the stats seem to echo this expectation.

HyunSung Park's Performance and Prospects

Park has an impeccable record of 8 wins and no losses, signaling a fighter on the rise. His recent victory over SeungGuk Choi by submission demonstrates his ground game prowess. Park shows a balanced approach in striking, with significant head strikes per minute at 1.5171 and a good mix of leg kicks. His striking defense to offense ratio of 0.8983 and significant strike defense to offense ratio of 1.2895 suggest a calculated approach in his fights. Park's ability to maintain a high takedown defense ratio (1.0000) and a good submission rate per fight (3.4134) further solidify his position as a formidable contender.

Shannon Ross's Challenges

Ross, on the other hand, comes off two consecutive KO/TKO losses, raising a red flag as per our first heuristic. This pattern of losses, especially by knockouts, casts doubt on his resilience and chin strength in stand-up exchanges. Ross's recent striking stats also paint a concerning picture; his head strikes absorbed per minute stand at a high 7.1053, indicative of a defensive vulnerability. His striking defense percentage is low (0.3333), and his significant striking defense percentage (0.3600) doesn't fare much better. This deficiency in striking defense, coupled with recent KO losses, suggests a potential area of exploitation for Park.

Comparative Analysis

Park's striking accuracy (0.4720) and significant striking accuracy (0.4176) are higher compared to Ross, indicating a more efficient and effective striking game. Ross's recent performance shows a negative striking output and impact differential, which could be a significant disadvantage against a fighter like Park, who has a positive differential in these areas.

Heuristic Considerations

  1. Recent KO Losses for Ross: Ross's recent KO/TKO losses are critical factors, aligning with our heuristic about the increased likelihood of losing subsequent fights.
  2. Limited UFC History for Park: Park's limited number of UFC fights (only one listed) should be considered. However, his undefeated record somewhat mitigates this concern.
  3. Weight Class Stability: Both fighters seem to be consistent in their weight class, with no recent changes noted.
  4. Downward Trend for Ross: Ross’s recent fight record does suggest a potential downward trend, aligning with heuristic 4.

Conclusion

Given the statistics and fight breakdowns, WolfTicketsAI’s prediction favoring HyunSung Park seems well-founded. Park’s balanced and effective striking, coupled with a strong submission game, positions him advantageously against Ross, who has shown vulnerabilities in striking defense and a worrying trend of recent KO losses. Park's potential for exploiting these weaknesses makes him a strong contender for the win in this flyweight matchup.

Fight Analysis: Luana Santos vs Stephanie Egger

Overview

The upcoming UFC Women's Bantamweight bout between Luana Santos and Stephanie Egger is shaping up to be a clash of striking versus grappling. WolfTicketsAI predicts a win for Luana Santos, and the stats and recent performances provide a solid foundation for this prediction.

Luana Santos: A Striking Force

Luana Santos comes off a stellar performance against Juliana Miller, winning by TKO. Her striking is her standout attribute, as seen in her impressive stats: 17.3756 strikes landed per minute and a striking accuracy of 60.38%. Her recent head strikes landed per minute (11.9457) showcases her dominance in stand-up exchanges. This is critical in a matchup against a grappler like Egger, where controlling the distance and pace with striking could be a decisive factor.

Stephanie Egger: Submission Specialist

Egger, on the other hand, displays strength in grappling and submissions, with a significant submissions per fight rate of 0.7601 and takedowns per fight at 3.0405. However, her recent UFC history reveals a mixed bag of results, with losses in two out of her last three fights, both by submission. This suggests potential vulnerabilities, especially when facing a striker like Santos.

Key Considerations

  1. Recent Performance: Santos's recent win by KO/TKO signals her striking power, aligning with heuristic 1 which cautions about fighters who have recently lost by KO/TKO.
  2. Fighter Experience: Both fighters have sufficient UFC experience, satisfying heuristic 2.
  3. Weight Class Changes: No recent weight class changes have been noted for either fighter, addressing heuristic 3.
  4. Career Trajectory: Egger's recent record (winning 2 out of the last 5 fights) hints at a possible downward trend as per heuristic 4, whereas Santos shows an upward trajectory.

Previous Encounters

There's no record of Santos and Egger having fought each other in the past, making this an intriguing first-time matchup.

The Prediction Justification

Given Santos' striking prowess and ability to land significant strikes effectively, coupled with Egger's recent susceptibility to submissions, the prediction leans towards Santos. Her ability to keep the fight standing and utilize her striking advantage could be the key to overcoming Egger's grappling strength. Santos' recent performances show a fighter on the rise, capable of handling pressure and delivering powerful strikes.

Conclusion

In summary, Luana Santos' striking capabilities, combined with Stephanie Egger's recent submission losses, give credence to WolfTicketsAI's prediction. Santos is likely to control the pace and keep the fight in her striking domain, leading to a potential win in this intriguing Women's Bantamweight showdown.

Analysis of Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Hernandez

Tatsuro Taira Overview

Strengths: - Undefeated Record: Taira boasts an impressive 14-0 record, a clear indicator of his dominance in the octagon. - Submission Specialist: With a high submission per fight ratio (2.7491), Taira has proven his prowess in grappling and ground game. - Effective Takedown Game: His recent takedown attempts (7.7700 per fight) and accuracy (0.3948) show his ability to control the pace and location of the fight. - Solid Striking: Notably strong in head strikes, both in terms of attempts (3.5968 per minute) and lands (2.2910 per minute).

Weaknesses: - Limited UFC Experience: With only four fights in the UFC, there's a potential question about his performance against more experienced fighters. - Absorbs Body Strikes: His body strikes absorbed per minute (0.3207) could be a vulnerability against a good striker.

Carlos Hernandez Overview

Strengths: - Aggressive Striker: Hernandez shows a high rate of head strikes attempted (10.5865 per minute) and landed (4.3609 per minute), indicating his aggressive stand-up game. - Takedown Capabilities: A reasonable number of takedowns attempted (7.2180 per fight) and a decent takedown accuracy (0.2500) suggest he can mix it up well.

Weaknesses: - Defensive Gaps: His striking defense percentage (0.4649) and significant striking defense percentage (0.4953) are lower, suggesting vulnerabilities in defending against strikes. - Inconsistent Takedown Defense: His takedown defense ratio (0.6250) is not the strongest, which could be exploited by a grappler like Taira.

Fight Prediction

WolfTicketsAI predicts Tatsuro Taira to win, and the analysis supports this:

  1. Taira's Grappling Advantage: Taira’s exceptional submission skills and effective takedown game are likely to overwhelm Hernandez, whose takedown defense isn't the strongest.
  2. Striking and Defense: While Hernandez is a more aggressive striker, Taira's striking defense, especially against head strikes, appears more solid.
  3. UFC Performance Trend: Taira's undefeated streak in the UFC, coupled with his all-around skills in striking and grappling, gives him a considerable edge.

Potential Concerns

  • Taira's Limited UFC Experience: Taira’s limited number of fights in the UFC could be a factor, but his performances have been convincing.
  • Hernandez's Striking Power: Hernandez's striking, if effective early on, could pose a threat to Taira.

Conclusion

Tatsuro Taira's balanced skill set, combined with his effective grappling and submission abilities, makes him the favorite to win against Carlos Hernandez. His ability to control the fight both standing and on the ground, along with his solid striking defense, gives him the upper hand in this matchup.

UFC Fight Analysis: Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa

Background Context

In this featherweight clash, we have a fascinating match-up. Steve Garcia, a fighter with a solid track record in the UFC, is set to face Melquizael Costa, a promising talent in the division. WolfTicketsAI predicts Costa to win, and let's dive into why that might be a sound prediction.

Steve Garcia Analysis

Steve Garcia is a fighter who's been through the wringer in his UFC tenure. With a UFC record of 2 wins and 2 losses, he's shown resilience, especially with his recent wins by KO/TKO. His striking game is a significant asset, with impressive head strike and knockdown stats. However, his takedown defense ratio is a concern, especially against a versatile fighter like Costa.

Recent Performance

  • Garcia's recent victories are notable, especially considering they're by KO/TKO.
  • His loss to Maheshate due to KO/TKO raises a red flag, aligning with heuristic 1.
  • His UFC win percentage stands at 0.67, indicating a solid performance in the octagon.

Melquizael Costa Analysis

Costa, with a more varied record of 1 win and 1 loss in the UFC, shows a different skill set. His submission and takedown stats are notable, potentially giving him an edge over Garcia's weaker takedown defense. His striking stats aren't as impressive as Garcia's, but his well-rounded game makes him a threat.

Recent Performance

  • Costa's unanimous decision win over Lingo shows his ability to go the distance.
  • The loss to Moises by submission is a setback but not necessarily a trend.

Prediction Justification

  1. Takedown Defense vs. Versatility: Costa's takedown and submission skills might exploit Garcia's weaker takedown defense.
  2. Striking Power vs. Endurance: Garcia's striking power is formidable, but Costa's ability to endure and adapt, as shown in his fight against Lingo, could be key.
  3. Recent Trends: Garcia's recent wins, albeit impressive, were against fighters with different styles than Costa. Costa's all-around game might pose new challenges for Garcia.

Additional Points

  • Weight Class Consistency: Both fighters have been consistent in their weight classes, which is a positive indicator.
  • Experience Factor: While Garcia has more UFC fights, Costa's overall record suggests sufficient experience to handle the pressure.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Costa winning seems grounded in Costa's versatility and ability to exploit Garcia's weaker takedown defense. Garcia's striking prowess is a significant threat, but Costa's endurance and adaptability could see him through. It promises to be a fight where strategy and adaptability will play crucial roles.

Tim Elliott vs Sumudaerji: Fight Analysis and Prediction

Analysis

Tim Elliott

  • Recent Performance: Tim Elliott's recent UFC history shows a mixed bag of results. His last fight against Muhammad Mokaev ended in a submission loss. However, he previously secured wins against Victor Altamirano and Tagir Ulanbekov, showcasing his resilience and adaptability.
  • Strengths: Elliott's strengths lie in his grappling and takedown abilities, as indicated by his high takedown attempts and successful defenses. He's also shown the ability to win by submission, as seen against Mark De La Rosa.
  • Concerns: Elliott has faced several submission losses recently, which could be a vulnerability against a skilled grappler. His striking defense is another area of concern, as he absorbs a significant number of head strikes per minute.

Sumudaerji

  • Recent Performance: Sumudaerji's recent UFC outings have been more consistent, with wins over Zarrukh Adashev and Malcolm Gordon. However, his last fight against Matt Schnell was a loss via submission.
  • Strengths: Sumudaerji shines in striking, particularly with head strikes. His knockdown ratio per fight is impressive, indicating strong striking power. He also has a solid significant striking accuracy.
  • Concerns: Like Elliott, Sumudaerji has shown susceptibility to submissions, a factor that could be exploited. His takedown defense ratio, while decent, isn’t impenetrable.

Heuristics

  1. Recent Losses by Submission: Both fighters have lost recent fights by submission, which could be a critical factor in this matchup.
  2. Experience: Elliott has a vast experience in the UFC, which can be a double-edged sword. It gives him a depth of experience, but also indicates wear and tear.
  3. Weight Class Consistency: Both fighters have been consistent in their weight classes, which is a positive sign of stability.

Prediction Justification

  • WolfTicketsAI Prediction: The AI predicts Sumudaerji to win. This aligns with his striking prowess and recent performance momentum.
  • Striking vs Grappling: The fight could become a classic striker (Sumudaerji) vs grappler (Elliott) matchup. If Sumudaerji keeps the fight standing, his chances increase. Conversely, Elliott’s grappling could dominate if he takes the fight to the ground.
  • Vulnerabilities: Both fighters' susceptibility to submissions adds an unpredictable element, but Sumudaerji’s superior striking might give him the edge.

Conclusion

Considering the fighters' strengths and vulnerabilities, Sumudaerji’s advantage in striking and recent form gives him the edge in this fight, aligning with WolfTicketsAI's prediction. However, Elliott’s grappling experience shouldn't be underestimated, making this an intriguing and potentially close contest.