Results: UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig

Fight Info:
Location: Enterprise, Nevada, United States
Elevation: 777.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
100.0% 60.0% 77.78%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
75.0% 20.0% 44.44%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
50.0% 20.0% 33.33%
Selected Bets for Event:

No parlays selected for this event.

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig

Brendan Allen and Paul Craig are set to clash in the middleweight division at UFC Fight Night 232. WolfTicketsAI predicts a victory for Brendan Allen, and the stats back this up.

Brendan Allen - The Favored Contender

  • Recent Form: Allen's UFC record is impressive, with a streak of wins mostly by submission. His ability to dominate on the ground is a key factor in this prediction.
  • Knockout Concern: Despite a recent KO/TKO loss to Chris Curtis, his overall performance since then has been solid, indicating resilience and adaptation.
  • Statistical Strengths: High submission per fight rate, good takedown accuracy, and a robust striking game, especially in significant strikes landed per minute.
  • Potential Weakness: A slightly higher rate of head strikes absorbed per minute recently could be a concern, but his overall striking defense and offense ratios are solid.

Paul Craig - The Underdog with Potential

  • Recent Performance: Craig's move to middleweight seems promising with a recent win by KO/TKO, but his overall recent win percentage is lower compared to Allen.
  • KO/TKO Losses: Multiple losses by KO/TKO in the past could be a vulnerability, especially against a striker like Allen.
  • Submission Skill: His submission per fight rate is notable, but this might be less effective against a submission specialist like Allen.
  • Striking Stats: Lower striking and significant striking accuracy compared to Allen, which might be a disadvantage in stand-up exchanges.

Key Factors and Prediction

  • Weight Class Change: Craig’s recent move to middleweight is noteworthy. This change can affect a fighter's performance, but his debut in the new class was successful.
  • Striking vs. Ground Game: Allen’s striking and submission game seems more balanced compared to Craig’s more submission-focused approach.
  • Resilience and Adaptability: Allen’s comeback from a KO/TKO loss and maintaining a strong winning streak suggests better adaptability.
  • Statistical Advantage: Allen's statistics, especially in significant strikes and takedowns, give him an edge in both stand-up and ground game.

In conclusion, Brendan Allen’s diverse skill set, superior striking and submission stats, and recent form make him the clear favorite against Paul Craig. His ability to handle strikes and dominate on the ground, combined with Craig's vulnerabilities, especially in striking defense, align with WolfTicketsAI's prediction of an Allen victory.

Michael Morales vs Jake Matthews: WolfTicketsAI Prediction Analysis

In the upcoming welterweight clash at UFC Fight Night 232, Michael Morales is set to take on Jake Matthews. WolfTicketsAI predicts a win for Michael Morales with a confidence score of 16. Let's dive into the stats and see why this prediction stands strong.

Michael Morales: The Undefeated Phenom

Morales comes into this fight with a stellar undefeated record of 15-0. In his UFC tenure, he's shown incredible striking prowess, boasting a high knockdown rate of 1.4876 per fight. His recent performances include two KO/TKOs and a unanimous decision win, highlighting his versatility and finishing ability. His striking metrics are impressive: landing 5.157 head strikes per minute and maintaining a striking accuracy of 0.5191. Morales's ability to land significant strikes (5.9835 per minute) while maintaining a good defense (significant striking defense percentage: 0.5304) is key. His recent striking impact differential (23.4055) and win percentage (1.00) further cement his position as a formidable striker.

Jake Matthews: The Experienced Challenger

Matthews, with a 19-6 record, brings more experience but a less pristine record. His recent fights show a mixed bag of results: three wins (two by decision, one KO/TKO) and two losses (one by decision, one by submission). Notable in Matthews's skillset is his grappling - he has a higher submission rate (0.6703 per fight) and a solid takedown game (1.7130 takedowns per fight). His striking is less dominant than Morales, landing 2.4677 head strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 0.5481. However, his significant striking defense is higher (0.6090), which might help against Morales's aggressive striking.

Key Considerations:

  1. Morales's Undefeated Streak: Morales's 15-0 record, with recent dominant performances, suggests he's in his prime and a tough opponent to beat.
  2. Matthews's Experience: With more UFC fights under his belt, Matthews's experience could be a factor, especially if the fight goes to the ground.
  3. Striking vs Grappling: Morales's striking seems superior, while Matthews might have an edge in grappling. The fight could hinge on whether it stays standing or goes to the mat.
  4. Recent Form: Morales's recent form is impeccable, while Matthews shows variability in his performances, with two losses in his last five fights.

Conclusion:

Considering Morales's undefeated record, his striking ability, and recent form, it's reasonable to side with WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Morales winning. Matthews's experience and grappling skills pose a threat, but Morales's striking dominance might be too much for Matthews to handle. This matchup promises to be a classic striker vs. grappler showdown, with Morales likely to maintain his undefeated streak.

Fight Analysis: Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt

Breakdown of Chase Hooper

  • Recent Performance: Hooper's recent UFC record stands at a solid 4 wins and 3 losses. Notably, he suffered a KO/TKO loss to Steve Garcia in late 2022, which raises a red flag regarding his striking defense and chin resilience. His other two losses came via unanimous decisions, showing a tendency to go the distance in fights he doesn't win.
  • Skills and Stats: A glance at Hooper's stats reveals his grappling prowess, with high submissions per fight (1.9447) and a decent takedown rate (1.7502 per fight). His striking defense (0.3119) and significant striking defense (0.3714) percentages, however, are concerns, especially considering the recent KO/TKO loss. His striking accuracy (0.5830) and significant striking accuracy (0.4941) are respectable.
  • Recent Trends: Despite the loss by KO/TKO, Hooper's recent win percentage of 0.67 and no drastic changes in weight class suggest a stable performance curve. His recent increase in takedowns attempted per fight (7.3880) and takedown accuracy (0.3106) indicate a strategic shift towards grappling.

Breakdown of Jordan Leavitt

  • Recent Performance: Leavitt, with a recent record of 4 wins and 2 losses in the UFC, shows versatility with wins by both KO/TKO and submissions. However, his loss by submission to Paddy Pimblett highlights a potential vulnerability in his ground game.
  • Skills and Stats: Leavitt's stats show a balanced approach with a slight edge in grappling (submissions per fight: 0.9441, takedowns per fight: 2.2028). His striking accuracy (0.7416) is impressive, but he lands fewer significant strikes per minute (2.7902) compared to Hooper. His defensive stats are comparable, with a slightly better striking defense percentage (0.3706) and significant striking defense (0.5664).
  • Recent Trends: Leavitt's recent performance indicates an increased focus on striking, as seen in his higher recent striking output differential (23.0450). His recent wins by KO/TKO suggest an improvement in striking power and technique.

Prediction Justification

  • WolfTicketsAI's Prediction: Favoring Chase Hooper.
  • Analysis: Hooper's superior grappling stats and high submission rate could pose a significant threat to Leavitt, especially considering Leavitt's recent submission loss. However, Hooper's vulnerability to strikes, as evidenced by his KO/TKO loss, is a concern against Leavitt’s improved striking game.
  • Key Factors: Hooper’s grappling advantage and recent trend towards increased takedown attempts might be pivotal. If he can avoid Leavitt's striking and implement his ground game, he has a strong chance. Leavitt's recent improvements in striking pose a threat, but he'll need to be cautious of Hooper's ground game.
  • Conclusion: Chase Hooper's grappling edge, coupled with his resilience to bounce back from losses, gives him a slight advantage. Expect a tactical bout where Hooper's grappling could be the deciding factor, unless Leavitt can capitalize on his improved striking.

Overall

This matchup is a classic striker vs. grappler scenario, with Hooper's ground game potentially overriding Leavitt's striking improvements. It's a close call, but Hooper's ability to control the fight on the ground might just tip the scales in his favor.

UFC Fight Analysis: Luana Pinheiro vs Amanda Ribas

Overview

In the upcoming strawweight clash at UFC Fight Night 232, we have Luana Pinheiro squaring off against Amanda Ribas. WolfTicketsAI is banking on Amanda Ribas to secure the victory. Let's break down the stats and history to understand why.

Fighter Comparison

Luana Pinheiro

  • Record: Impressive with 11 wins and only 1 loss. Her UFC stint shows a solid performance with 3 wins.
  • Recent Performance: Pinheiro's coming off a split decision win against Michelle Waterson, showcasing her ability to grind out wins.
  • Stats: Notable for her grappling prowess, with a high rate of takedowns per fight (3.0642). Her striking is decent, but the striking output differential is negative, suggesting she might struggle in prolonged striking exchanges.

Amanda Ribas

  • Record: A more mixed bag with 11 wins and 4 losses. Her recent UFC performances have been a bit shaky.
  • Recent Performance: Coming off a loss by KO/TKO against Maycee Barber, which raises concerns about her vulnerability in striking.
  • Stats: Ribas shows a balanced skill set, with good submission and takedown numbers. However, her recent performance has been less impressive, with a decreased win rate.

Key Points for Prediction

  • Ribas' KO/TKO Loss: Recently suffered a knockout loss, which is a red flag in terms of her striking defense and durability.
  • Pinheiro's Limited UFC Experience: With only 3 UFC fights, there's some uncertainty in predicting her performance against more seasoned opponents.
  • No Weight Class Change: Neither fighter has recently changed weight classes, maintaining stability in their performance.
  • Downward Trend for Ribas: Losing more than 50% of her most recent fights indicates a possible decline in Ribas's career trajectory.

Conclusion

Considering the factors above, WolfTicketsAI's prediction favoring Amanda Ribas might seem counterintuitive given her recent KO loss and declining win rate. However, her overall skill set, experience, and past performances against high-caliber opponents might be giving her the edge in the AI's algorithm. Pinheiro, while showing promise, still has to prove her mettle against top-tier competition like Ribas. The fight promises to be a mix of strategic grappling and testing striking exchanges, with Ribas' experience possibly giving her the upper hand in a close contest.

Jonathan Pearce vs Joanderson Brito: Featherweight Showdown

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Joanderson Brito to Win

Jonathan Pearce comes into this fight with a solid record of 14-4, riding a wave of victories in his recent UFC matches. He's shown his versatility, bagging wins through decisions, knockouts, and submissions. However, there's a notable KO/TKO loss to Joe Lauzon, a factor that could hint at vulnerability under heavy pressure. Pearce's stats boast impressive numbers in takedowns, striking accuracy, and significant strikes landed, painting the picture of a well-rounded fighter.

Joanderson Brito, on the flip side, holds a 15-3 record with a similar blend of victory methods. His UFC journey reflects a knack for finishing fights, evident from his recent KO/TKO and submission wins. Brito's stats reveal a high knockdown rate per fight and substantial takedown accuracy. However, his striking defense percentages are lower than Pearce's, suggesting potential openings for a skilled striker.

Key Factors:

  1. Recent Performance & Trends: Pearce has an unbroken streak in recent fights, demonstrating adaptability and resilience. Brito, with a single loss against Bill Algeo, has bounced back with decisive victories. Both have maintained momentum, but Pearce's broader range of victory methods could be pivotal.

  2. Statistical Insight: Pearce excels in takedowns and has a higher striking defense, which might be crucial against Brito's aggressive striking and takedown approach. Brito's higher knockdown rate per fight indicates a powerful striking ability that Pearce must be wary of.

  3. Vulnerability Analysis: Pearce's past KO/TKO loss signals a potential weakness against a heavy hitter like Brito. Brito's lower defense stats might leave him open to Pearce's varied attack if he's not cautious.

  4. WolfTicketsAI's Confidence: The AI's prediction favoring Brito, with a confidence score of 4, likely factors in his recent decisive wins and high finish rate.

Conclusion:

The matchup is a clash of Pearce's tactical versatility against Brito's finishing prowess. While Pearce's diverse skill set and recent success story are impressive, Brito's knockout capability and aggressive style might edge him out in this featherweight bout. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Brito win resonates with the Brazilian's recent form and striking power, making it a plausible outcome in this high-octane encounter.

Chad Anheliger vs. Jose Johnson: Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

The upcoming UFC Bantamweight clash features Chad Anheliger against Jose Johnson. WolfTicketsAI, a machine learning model specialized in UFC fight predictions, favors Jose Johnson to win.

Chad Anheliger Analysis

Anheliger's record stands at 12 wins and 6 losses, with a notable KO/TKO victory and a unanimous decision loss in his recent UFC fights. His significant stats include:

  • High Knockdowns and Submissions per Fight: A strong indicator of his finishing ability.
  • Low Takedown Stats: Suggesting a preference for stand-up fighting.
  • Higher Strikes Landed per Minute compared to Absorbed: Reflects good striking efficiency.
  • Recent Downward Trend: A loss in his last fight and a win percentage of 0.33 in recent bouts point to potential vulnerabilities.

Anheliger's striking stats are robust, but his recent performance and lower significant striking defense percentage (0.4736) raise concerns, especially against a striker like Johnson.

Jose Johnson Analysis

Johnson's record is 15 wins, 8 losses. His last UFC outing resulted in a submission loss. Key stats include:

  • Low Knockdown and Submission Rates: Indicating less finishing prowess compared to Anheliger.
  • Better Striking Defense: Though his striking accuracy is high, his recent striking output and impact differentials are negative, suggesting issues in controlling fights.
  • Recent Win Percentage: At 0.65, it's better than Anheliger's, signaling a more consistent recent performance.

Johnson's striking defense and accuracy are notable, but his inability to control recent fights in terms of striking output is a concern.

Prediction Justification

WolfTicketsAI predicts Jose Johnson as the likely winner. This prediction aligns with Johnson's better recent performance and striking defense. Anheliger's recent struggles and lower striking defense could be exploited by Johnson's accurate striking.

The fight poses an intriguing stylistic matchup: Anheliger's power and finishing ability against Johnson's defensive striking and recent consistency. However, Anheliger's downward trend and vulnerability in striking defense give Johnson the edge.

Conclusion

In summary, the prediction leans towards Jose Johnson. His recent form and striking capabilities, coupled with Anheliger's recent losses and defensive gaps, make Johnson the favorable pick in this Bantamweight matchup.

UFC Fight Analysis: Jeka Saragih vs Lucas Alexander

Key Insights:

  • Lucas Alexander's Winning Edge: WolfTicketsAI predicts Lucas Alexander to win, and the stats support this. Alexander displays superior striking ability with higher head strikes per minute (2.5245 vs. Saragih's 0.2290) and a significant striking accuracy of 0.5375. His recent striking impact differential (14.4133) outshines Saragih's negative differential (-54.0000), indicating a more effective and damaging striking game.

  • Saragih's Recent KO/TKO Loss: Jeka Saragih's last UFC fight ended in a KO/TKO loss, raising concerns about his durability and defense, especially with his high recent head strikes absorbed per minute (4.1221). This loss is a critical factor, as fighters who've recently suffered a KO/TKO are often seen as more vulnerable in subsequent fights.

  • Experience in UFC: While both fighters have similar UFC records, Saragih’s recent performance (0.81 recent win percentage) is overshadowed by his negative striking differentials, indicating struggles in recent bouts. Alexander's recent win percentage (0.33) isn't stellar, but his striking statistics paint a picture of a more consistent and effective fighter.

  • Weight Class Consistency: Both fighters are competing in their regular weight class (Featherweight), which is a positive for stability and performance expectations.

Conclusion:

Lucas Alexander's superior striking stats, combined with Jeka Saragih's recent KO/TKO loss and less effective striking game, justify WolfTicketsAI's prediction for an Alexander win. Alexander's striking ability, particularly in head strikes, and his favorable striking differentials, suggest he has the edge in this matchup. Saragih’s recent KO/TKO loss is a significant factor in assessing his chances, as it raises questions about his resilience and defense against a striker like Alexander.

UFC Fight Analysis: Lucie Pudilova vs Ailin Perez

Overview

In the upcoming Women's Bantamweight clash, WolfTicketsAI is backing Ailin Perez to triumph over Lucie Pudilova. Let's break down the stats and recent performances to understand why.

Lucie Pudilova: A Striker Facing a Downturn

Pudilova, with a record of 14-8, shows versatility with decent takedown numbers and striking. However, her recent UFC record is worrying, winning only 2 out of her last 6 fights, indicating a possible downward trend. She's shown resilience in stand-up fighting, evident from her head strikes stats, but her recent fights reveal a decline in effectiveness, especially with a loss by KO/TKO and several decision losses.

Her UFC history at both Bantamweight and Flyweight demonstrates adaptability, but also a lack of dominance in either class. Her striking defense and accuracy numbers aren't stellar, hinting at vulnerabilities that a well-rounded opponent could exploit.

Ailin Perez: Rising Contender with Strong Ground Game

Perez, holding an 8-2 record, is relatively new to the UFC with just two fights. This limited history might usually ring alarm bells, but her performance against Ashlee Evans-Smith shows promise. Her loss at Featherweight doesn't seem to have dented her confidence, returning to Bantamweight with a win.

Her standout stats are in takedowns, both attempted and completed, indicating a strong ground game. While her striking stats are less impressive, they're not negligible, especially her head strikes landed per minute. This balance of ground and stand-up skills could be pivotal against Pudilova.

Key Factors and Prediction

  1. Pudilova's Recent Struggles: Lucie's recent UFC performance, particularly the KO/TKO loss, raises concerns about her ability to handle powerful strikers or well-rounded fighters.
  2. Perez's Ground Dominance: Ailin's impressive takedown stats suggest she can control where the fight goes, a significant advantage in MMA.
  3. Experience vs Freshness: While Pudilova has more UFC experience, her recent record and Perez's strong showing in her limited UFC appearances tilt the scales.
  4. Weight Class Consistency: Perez seems more settled in the Bantamweight class, which could play a role in her performance.

Conclusion

Considering the dynamics, WolfTicketsAI's prediction leans towards Ailin Perez. Her ground game might be the deciding factor against Pudilova, who's currently struggling to find her form. Perez's takedown abilities could neutralize Pudilova's striking, paving the way for a Perez victory.

UFC Fight Analysis: Trey Ogden vs Nikolas Motta

Prediction Overview

WolfTicketsAI predicts Trey Ogden to win against Nikolas Motta with a confidence score of 7.

Trey Ogden - Analysis

  • Recent Performance: Ogden has a mixed bag in his recent UFC fights, with a win against Daniel Zellhuber and losses to Ignacio Bahamondes and Jordan Leavitt. This indicates a resilient fighter but with some inconsistencies.
  • Stats Highlights: Ogden has a decent takedown game (0.6667 takedowns per fight) but lacks knockout power (0.0000 knockdowns per fight). His striking defense (0.4982) and significant striking accuracy (0.4196) are moderate.
  • Recent Trends: His recent win percentage (0.33) suggests a struggle to maintain consistent performance, but his takedown defense remains solid (1.0000).

Nikolas Motta - Analysis

  • Recent Performance: Motta's recent UFC history includes a win by KO/TKO against Cameron VanCamp but losses by KO/TKO to Manuel Torres and Jim Miller. This pattern raises concerns about his ability to handle power strikers.
  • Stats Highlights: Motta has impressive knockdown stats (1.1889 knockdowns per fight) but has shown vulnerability in defense, particularly with a recent head strikes absorbed rate of 2.7645 per minute.
  • Recent Trends: Motta's recent win percentage is low (0.33), similar to Ogden, but his striking power is a significant threat.

Heuristics Analysis

  1. Recent KO/TKO Losses: Motta's recent losses by KO/TKO could be a red flag, indicating potential vulnerabilities in his defense.
  2. Limited UFC Fight History: Both fighters have had only a few fights in the UFC, which adds some uncertainty to the prediction.
  3. Weight Class Consistency: Both fighters have been competing in the Lightweight division consistently, with no recent weight class changes.

Key Points

  • Ogden's resilience and takedown ability might play a crucial role in this fight, potentially offsetting Motta's striking power.
  • Motta's recent KO/TKO losses and high rate of head strikes absorbed per minute could be critical factors, especially against an opponent with solid defense like Ogden.
  • The prediction leans towards Ogden due to his ability to withstand strikes and possibly exploit Motta's defensive gaps.

Conclusion

Considering the strengths and vulnerabilities of both fighters, WolfTicketsAI's prediction favoring Trey Ogden seems well-grounded. Ogden's balanced skill set and better defensive record give him an edge over Motta, whose recent KO/TKO losses indicate potential weaknesses that Ogden could exploit.