Results: UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira

Fight Info:
Location: New York City, New York, United States
Elevation: 10.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
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Profit Model
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Plain Model
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The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis

Fighters' Overview:

Jiri Prochazka

  • Record: 29 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • UFC History: Dominating with victories by KO/TKO, showcasing formidable striking power.
  • Stats: Notable for high strikes landed per minute and significant striking accuracy. Recent performance indicates an aggressive and effective striking game.

Alex Pereira

  • Record: 8 Wins, 2 Losses.
  • UFC History: Impressive KO/TKO wins, including a notable victory over Israel Adesanya. Recent move to Light Heavyweight.
  • Stats: Exceptional striking accuracy and impact differential. A dangerous striker with a history of finishing fights.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Pereira to Win

Reasons Supporting Prediction:

  1. Striking Prowess: Pereira's striking accuracy and impact are superior. His history of KO/TKO victories, including against high-caliber opponents, gives him an edge.
  2. Weight Class Transition: Pereira's recent move to Light Heavyweight and a win in this class shows adaptability and competence at a higher weight, potentially offering an advantage over Prochazka.
  3. Recent Form: Pereira's recent performances, especially his knockout power, align with his predicted victory. He's been consistently landing significant strikes, a key factor in this matchup.

Additional Considerations:

  • Prochazka's Recent Injury: Having vacated a title due to injury, there might be concerns about Prochazka's fitness and performance levels.
  • Downward Trends: Neither fighter shows a downward trend in their recent UFC fights, maintaining strong records.
  • Previous Matchups: No previous fights between Prochazka and Pereira, making this a fresh and unpredictable encounter.

Conclusion:

In the high-stakes clash at UFC 295, Alex Pereira, with his superior striking accuracy and impactful performances, especially in his new weight class, is predicted to have the upper hand against Jiri Prochazka. Pereira's recent transition to Light Heavyweight and his ability to deliver knockouts against formidable opponents tip the scales in his favor. Despite Prochazka's impressive track record and striking ability, Pereira's recent form and adaptability in the Light Heavyweight division make him the predicted victor in this anticipated matchup.

Fighter Profiles

Sergei Pavlovich

  • Record: 18 Wins, 1 Loss.
  • UFC Career: Strong record with multiple KO/TKO wins. Notable for his striking power.
  • Recent Performance: Dominant victories, primarily through KO/TKO. High striking impact and knockdown rates.

Tom Aspinall

  • Record: 13 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • UFC Career: Impressive start with consecutive wins, including Performance of the Night awards.
  • Recent Performance: Mixed results with a loss due to a knee injury, but a strong comeback with a TKO win.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Pavlovich to Win

Analysis Supporting Prediction

  1. Striking Power: Pavlovich's knockdowns per fight and striking impact differential are significantly higher. This indicates a more potent striking game, crucial in the heavyweight division.
  2. Recent Momentum: Pavlovich's recent string of KO/TKO victories demonstrates his ability to finish fights decisively.
  3. Aspinall's Injury Concerns: Despite a recent win, Aspinall's TKO loss due to a knee injury might be a factor. Injuries in heavyweights can be particularly impactful given the division's physical demands.

Key Heuristics

  • KO/TKO Losses: Aspinall's recent TKO loss, even if due to injury, might affect his performance, especially against a heavy hitter like Pavlovich.
  • Fight History: Both fighters have a solid number of UFC fights, giving enough data to support the prediction.
  • Weight Class Consistency: Both fighters have been consistent in the heavyweight division, ensuring a fair comparison of stats.

Additional Factors

  • Career Trajectory: Neither fighter shows a downward trend in their recent UFC fights, maintaining a positive career trajectory.
  • Fight Cancellation History: Their previously scheduled fight was canceled, adding a layer of unpredictability to this matchup.

Conclusion

Sergei Pavlovich, with his remarkable knockout power and momentum from consecutive KO/TKO victories, is predicted to have the advantage against Tom Aspinall. Pavlovich's higher striking impact and knockdown rates, coupled with Aspinall's recent injury concerns, tilt the odds in his favor. While Aspinall has shown resilience and skill in his UFC career, Pavlovich's recent performance and power in the heavyweight division position him as the predicted victor in this eagerly anticipated bout for the Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship.

Fighter Analysis

Jessica Andrade ("Bate Estaca")

  • Record: 24 Wins, 12 Losses.
  • UFC Tenure: A veteran with a versatile skill set, including high-level striking and grappling.
  • Recent Performance: Mixed results with notable wins and losses, showing a versatile yet somewhat inconsistent performance.

Mackenzie Dern

  • Record: 13 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • UFC Tenure: Known for her exceptional grappling skills, particularly in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
  • Recent Performance: Consistent performance with a strong grappling focus, showcasing her submission skills.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Dern to Win

Prediction Analysis

  1. Grappling Dominance: Dern's grappling prowess, especially in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, is a significant advantage. Her takedown attempts and submission skills are likely to be pivotal.
  2. Striking Versatility: While Andrade has a well-rounded striking game, Dern’s recent improvement in striking provides a more balanced approach to this fight.
  3. Recent Momentum: Dern’s recent performances, despite a few losses, show a trend of improvement and adaptation, crucial in high-level MMA.

Heuristic Considerations

  • KO/TKO Losses: Andrade has faced recent losses via KO/TKO, which may impact her approach to the fight, especially against a submission specialist like Dern.
  • Weight Class Stability: Both fighters have been consistent in their weight class, providing a fair comparison of their skills and performances.
  • Downward Trend: Andrade's recent fight record shows some inconsistencies, which could be a concern against a rising contender like Dern.

Additional Insights

  • Career Trajectory: Andrade’s experience is extensive, but her recent performances suggest a need for strategic adjustments against a specialist like Dern.
  • Previous Encounters: No previous fights between Andrade and Dern, adding an element of unpredictability to their matchup.

Conclusion

Mackenzie Dern's predicted victory over Jessica Andrade is rooted in her superior grappling skills and recent improvements in striking. Dern’s ability to dominate on the ground, coupled with her evolving stand-up game, positions her well against Andrade's more varied but recently inconsistent skill set. The fight promises to be a clash of styles, with Dern's ground game likely playing a decisive role in this intriguing Women's Strawweight bout.

Fighter Overview

Matt Frevola ("The SteamRolla")

  • Record: 11 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • UFC Career: A well-rounded fighter with a background in wrestling and striking.
  • Recent Performance: Showing resilience with recent wins, including knockouts, suggesting a strong comeback.

Benoit Saint Denis ("God of War")

  • Record: 12 Wins, 1 Loss, 1 No Contest.
  • UFC Career: Notably aggressive in his approach, with a high rate of takedowns attempted and a solid striking game.
  • Recent Performance: Impressive recent wins, showcasing both striking and grappling skills.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Saint Denis to Win

Analysis Supporting Prediction

  1. Aggressive Style: Saint Denis’ aggressive approach, characterized by a high volume of strikes and takedowns, aligns with the prediction of his victory. His ability to control the pace could be a key factor.
  2. Striking and Grappling Balance: Saint Denis demonstrates a balanced skill set in both striking and grappling, an advantage in a versatile matchup like this one.
  3. Momentum: Saint Denis is on an upward trajectory with recent victories, indicating a strong momentum coming into this fight.

Heuristic Considerations

  • KO/TKO Losses: Frevola’s history includes losses by knockout, which may be a concern against a high-output striker like Saint Denis.
  • Weight Class Consistency: Both fighters have been consistent in their weight class, ensuring a fair assessment of their capabilities.
  • Career Trends: Saint Denis shows a promising upward trend, whereas Frevola, despite recent wins, has faced challenges in his UFC career.

Additional Insights

  • Fighter Resilience: Frevola’s recent wins after losses show resilience, but facing a rising fighter like Saint Denis will be a rigorous test.
  • No Prior Matchups: The lack of previous encounters between these two adds an element of unpredictability.

Conclusion

Benoit Saint Denis is predicted to triumph over Matt Frevola, primarily due to his aggressive fighting style, balanced skill set, and recent momentum. Saint Denis’ ability to maintain a high pace and volume in both striking and grappling poses a significant challenge for Frevola. While Frevola has demonstrated resilience and capability in his recent fights, Saint Denis’ current trajectory and versatile approach give him the edge in this lightweight contest.

Fighter Profiles

Diego Lopes

  • Record: 22 Wins, 6 Losses.
  • UFC Career: Lopes shows a well-rounded skillset but lacks significant takedown attempts in his recent fights, indicating a preference for striking.
  • Recent Performance: A mixed bag of results with a recent win via submission but also a unanimous decision loss.

Pat Sabatini

  • Record: 18 Wins, 4 Losses.
  • UFC Career: Demonstrates a strong grappling game with frequent takedown attempts and successful submissions.
  • Recent Performance: Impressive victories, including a submission win, but also a loss via technical knockout.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Sabatini to Win

Prediction Justification

  1. Grappling Prowess: Sabatini's frequent takedown attempts and successful submissions indicate a strong grappling advantage, particularly against Lopes, who shows less emphasis on grappling.
  2. Recent Momentum: Despite a recent TKO loss, Sabatini’s overall performance in the UFC has been strong, especially in grappling exchanges.
  3. Striking Defense: Sabatini's striking defense and takedown defense ratios suggest a capability to handle Lopes' striking-focused approach.

Key Heuristics

  • Recent Losses: Sabatini's recent loss via TKO might raise concerns, but his overall performance and quick recovery with a submission win mitigate these concerns.
  • Experience in UFC: Both fighters have sufficient experience in the UFC to make a well-informed prediction.
  • Downward Trends: Neither fighter shows a significant downward trend in their recent UFC fights.

Additional Considerations

  • Fighter Resilience: Lopes’ resilience, evident in his recent submission win, could pose a challenge to Sabatini.
  • Fighter Versatility: Sabatini's versatility, especially in grappling, may be a key factor against Lopes.

Conclusion

Pat Sabatini’s prediction to win against Diego Lopes is rooted in his superior grappling skills and consistent performance in the UFC. Sabatini’s ability to control the fight with takedowns and his proficiency in submissions could be decisive against Lopes, who prefers a striking approach. While Lopes is resilient and skilled, Sabatini’s grappling dominance and recent UFC momentum give him a strategic edge in this featherweight matchup.

Fighter Comparison

Tabatha Ricci ("Baby Shark")

  • Record: 9 Wins, 1 Loss.
  • UFC Career: Strong grappling skills with high takedown attempts. Shows resilience in bouncing back from a debut loss.
  • Recent Performance: Consistent wins, including a notable submission victory, showcasing her grappling prowess.

Loopy Godinez

  • Record: 11 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • UFC Career: A well-rounded fighter with a balance of striking and grappling. Demonstrates high activity in both striking and takedowns.
  • Recent Performance: Mixed results but with recent wins, including a Performance of the Night award, highlighting her versatile skill set.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Godinez to Win

Analysis Behind the Prediction

  1. Grappling vs. Striking Balance: Godinez’s balance in striking and grappling provides a tactical advantage over Ricci, who is more grappling-oriented.
  2. Volume and Pressure: Godinez's high volume in strikes and takedown attempts could overwhelm Ricci, especially if the fight stays standing.
  3. Recent Momentum: Godinez’s recent performances, including a Performance of the Night, indicate a strong momentum and adaptability in various fight scenarios.

Key Heuristics

  • Recent Losses: While both fighters have recent losses, their ability to bounce back with wins demonstrates resilience and adaptability.
  • Fighter Experience: Both fighters have adequate UFC experience to provide a reliable basis for the prediction.
  • Career Trends: No significant downward trend observed for either fighter. Both are showing development and growth in their UFC careers.

Additional Insights

  • Fighter Versatility: Godinez's ability to adapt to different fighting styles could be key against Ricci’s grappling-centric approach.
  • Fight Style Matchup: The fight poses an interesting style matchup, with Godinez's striking and volume potentially challenging Ricci's grappling focus.

Conclusion

Loopy Godinez is predicted to prevail over Tabatha Ricci, primarily due to her balanced approach in both striking and grappling, coupled with her high fight volume. Godinez's recent performances and adaptability in various fight scenarios give her an edge over Ricci’s grappling-centric style. This fight promises to be an intriguing clash of styles, with Godinez’s versatility and momentum likely playing a pivotal role

Fighter Overview

Nazim Sadykhov ("Black Wolf")

  • Record: 9 Wins, 1 Loss.
  • UFC Career: Demonstrates a solid striking game, complemented by effective takedown skills.
  • Recent Performance: Impressive recent victories, including a submission win, reflecting his well-rounded abilities.

Viacheslav Borshchev ("Slava Claus")

  • Record: 7 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • UFC Career: Known for his striking power, with significant knockdowns per fight. However, shows less emphasis on grappling.
  • Recent Performance: Mixed results but includes a notable knockout win, showcasing his striking ability.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Borshchev to Win

Prediction Rationale

  1. Striking Dominance: Borshchev's higher knockdown rate and significant striking accuracy give him an edge in the stand-up game.
  2. Recent Knockout Win: His recent victory via knockout highlights his power and ability to finish fights.
  3. Defensive Skills: Borshchev's takedown defense ratio suggests he could effectively counter Sadykhov's takedown attempts.

Key Heuristics

  • Recent Losses by KO/TKO: Neither fighter has recent losses by KO/TKO, indicating resilience and durability in their fights.
  • Experience Level: Both fighters have a sufficient number of UFC fights to provide a reliable basis for the prediction.
  • Career Trajectory: No significant downward trend for either fighter; both show potential and growth in their careers.

Additional Insights

  • Fighter Versatility: Sadykhov’s versatility in both striking and grappling poses a challenge to Borshchev.
  • Style Matchup: The fight presents an intriguing clash of styles, with Borshchev's striking prowess against Sadykhov's more well-rounded approach.

Conclusion

Viacheslav Borshchev’s predicted victory over Nazim Sadykhov is primarily based on his superior striking power and recent performance, especially his ability to score knockdowns. While Sadykhov brings a well-rounded skill set to the match, Borshchev’s striking dominance and effective takedown defense are likely to play a pivotal role in this lightweight bout.

Fighter Insights

Jared Gordon ("Flash")

  • Record: 19 Wins, 6 Losses, 1 No Contest.
  • UFC Career: Known for a high striking rate and solid takedown attempts. Has shown versatility in both stand-up and ground game.
  • Recent Performance: Mixed results with some wins and losses, including a controversial decision loss and a no contest due to a headbutt.

Mark Madsen ("The Olympian")

  • Record: 12 Wins, 1 Loss.
  • UFC Career: Strong wrestling background, reflected in his takedown accuracy. Also demonstrates a good striking game.
  • Recent Performance: Consistent performances with a majority of wins, but a recent submission loss.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Gordon to Win

Analysis Supporting Prediction

  1. Striking and Volume: Gordon's high striking rate and significant strikes landed per minute suggest he could outpace Madsen in stand-up exchanges.
  2. Versatility: Gordon's ability to engage both in striking and grappling makes him a well-rounded opponent.
  3. Resilience: Despite recent setbacks, Gordon has shown resilience and the ability to bounce back, which could be pivotal in this matchup.

Key Heuristics

  • Recent Knockout Losses: Neither fighter has suffered a recent knockout loss, indicating durability in both.
  • Fight Experience: Both fighters have adequate UFC experience to assess their capabilities and performance trends accurately.
  • Career Trends: Gordon shows a mix of wins and losses, but his overall performance remains strong. Madsen's career is on a positive trajectory, despite the recent submission loss.

Additional Considerations

  • Style Clash: The fight presents an interesting clash of styles, with Gordon's striking and volume against Madsen's wrestling prowess.
  • Recent Momentum: Both fighters have shown good momentum, but Gordon's higher activity rate in his fights could give him an edge.

Conclusion

Jared Gordon’s predicted victory over Mark Madsen is based on his high striking rate, versatility, and resilience. While Madsen brings strong wrestling skills to the fight, Gordon's ability to compete effectively both in stand-up and on the ground, combined with his higher fight volume, gives him a strategic advantage in this lightweight bout.

Fighter Profiles

John Castaneda ("Sexy Mexi")

  • Record: 20 Wins, 6 Losses.
  • UFC Career: Showcases a blend of striking and grappling. Known for his knockout power and decent takedown abilities.
  • Recent Performance: Notable recent performances, including a technical submission and a unanimous decision win, but suffered a knockout loss in October 2022.

Kyung Ho Kang ("Mr. Perfect")

  • Record: 19 Wins, 9 Losses, 1 No Contest.
  • UFC Career: A versatile fighter with a balance of striking and grappling. Exhibits good takedown accuracy.
  • Recent Performance: Consistent performances with recent wins, including a submission victory in his latest bout.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Castaneda to Win

Prediction Justification

  1. Striking Proficiency: Castaneda's higher knockdown rate and significant striking accuracy suggest an advantage in the stand-up game.
  2. Recent Momentum: Despite a recent loss, Castaneda has shown resilience and versatility in his recent wins.
  3. Balanced Approach: His ability to blend striking with grappling could pose a significant challenge to Kang.

Key Heuristics

  • Recent Losses by KO/TKO: Castaneda's recent knockout loss is a point of concern, indicating potential vulnerability.
  • Fight Experience: Both fighters have substantial UFC experience, providing a solid basis for assessing their capabilities.
  • Career Trends: While Castaneda has faced a recent setback, his overall career trajectory shows adaptability and skill growth.

Additional Considerations

  • Style Matchup: The fight presents a compelling style matchup, with Castaneda's striking against Kang's well-rounded skill set.
  • Fighter Resilience: Both fighters have demonstrated the ability to come back from losses, indicating a potentially closely contested bout.

Conclusion

John Castaneda's predicted victory over Kyung Ho Kang hinges on his striking power and recent performance resilience. While Kang brings a balanced skill set, Castaneda's ability to effectively combine striking with grappling, along with his recent momentum, are likely to be decisive in this bantamweight matchup.

Fighter Overview

Dennis Buzukja ("The Great")

  • Record: 8 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • Style: Striking-oriented fighter with solid defense.
  • Recent Form: Coming off a unanimous decision loss in August 2023.

Jamall Emmers ("Pretty Boy")

  • Record: 19 Wins, 7 Losses.
  • Style: Balanced fighter with a strong wrestling base and effective striking.
  • Recent Form: Mixed results with a recent split decision loss in June 2023 but a unanimous decision win earlier in February 2023.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Emmers to Win

Reasoning Behind Prediction

  1. Experience: Emmers has a significant experience advantage with more fights and victories.
  2. Versatility: His balanced approach in striking and grappling gives him adaptability against Buzukja's striking-focused style.
  3. Recent Performance: Despite a recent loss, Emmers' victory against a tough opponent like Khusein Askhabov showcases his capability to bounce back.

Key Heuristics

  • KO/TKO Losses: Neither fighter has a recent history of being knocked out, suggesting a potentially durable matchup.
  • Career Trajectory: Emmers shows a broader range of experience and has faced a diverse set of opponents.
  • Fighter Adaptability: Emmers' ability to switch between striking and wrestling could be key against Buzukja's striking defense.

Additional Factors

  • Fighter Resilience: Both fighters have demonstrated the ability to come back from setbacks, indicating a potentially competitive fight.
  • Style Matchup: Emmers’ wrestling could be the deciding factor against Buzukja's striking-centric approach.

Conclusion

Jamall Emmers' predicted victory over Dennis Buzukja is rooted in his experience, versatility, and ability to adapt his fighting style. While Buzukja poses a threat with his striking, Emmers’ well-rounded skill set and proven track record in grappling and striking make him a formidable opponent in this featherweight clash.